Management Forecasting Ability and Predictive Ability of Dividend Changes for Future Earnings

We revisit the predictive ability of dividend changes for firms’ future earnings and extend the literature by examining the effect of management forecasting ability. Although prior studies have examined the relationship between dividend changes and future earnings, the empirical evidence is mixed. The belief that dividend changes have implications for future earnings depends on the assumption that managers can accurately assess future earnings prospects. In this regard, we posit that the predictive ability of dividends can vary with managers’ forecasting ability. Analyzing a large sample of Japanese dividend-paying firms, we find that dividend changes, particularly dividend increases, are positively associated with increases in future earnings. Consistent with our hypothesis, this positive association is more pronounced for firms with high-forecasting ability managers. Our findings support the signaling theory of dividend changes and indicate that management forecasting ability has a moderating effect on the linkage between firms’ dividend changes and future earnings.

Earnings quality, foreign investor and dividends

This study discovers the relation between corporate governance factors and earnings quality and finds that increases in dividends and foreign ownership deter earnings management. The author shows that dividend increases and foreign ownership enhance earnings quality, but they appear to be substitutes in that role. In other words, as foreign ownership increases, the influence of dividends in increasing earnings quality decreases. Improving transparency through dividend increases and monitoring by foreign institutional investors are substitutes in preventing earnings management.

Reporting of discontinued operations and dividend payout policy

Purpose This study aims to examine the relationship between the types of discontinued operations (i.e. income-increasing versus income-decreasing) and a firm’s dividend payout policy. The authors extend our analysis to examine whether equity investors react differently to dividend payout changes that are preceded by the reporting of different types of discontinued operations. Design/methodology/approach Ordinary least squares regressions are used to test the association between discontinued operations and dividend payouts. The investor response test uses cumulative abnormal return around the announcement of dividend payout changes. Findings The authors find that firms temporarily increase (decrease) their dividend payout in the quarter following the reporting of income-increasing (income-decreasing) discontinued operations. The authors further find that these results are stronger when the magnitude of the income increase or income decrease is larger and when firms report disposal gains or losses. Although prior literature finds evidence that dividend increases are associated with a significant positive market reaction, the results show that investors do not react positively to dividend increases that are preceded by reporting income-increasing discontinued operations. Originality/value This study adds to the literature on the effects of financial reporting (i.e. the types of discontinued operations) on a firm’s payout policy (i.e. dividend payout). The authors also add to the literature that examines investors’ perceptions of a firm’s payout changes when such changes are transitory in nature.

Dividend Changes as Predictors of Future Profitability

This study investigates “the information content of dividends hypothesis” using data on UK firms from 1990-2015. Dividends act as an important conveyor of information. Dividend changes may trigger changes in stock prices because they may convey new information about the firm’s future earnings and profitability. Why do companies pay dividends (or analogously why are stockholders interested in receiving dividends), given that it is well known that dividends are often taxed heavily? This question is of special interest in the UK, where the dividend tax is higher than the capital gain tax. Previous research has used a number of dividend policy theories to explain the dividend policy puzzle. We carry out several estimations and find out that contrary to some other studies, there is no evidence that dividend increases (decreases) provide information about the future profitability or earnings of UK firms.

When no news is good news: failing to increase dividends

PurposeThe study's purpose is to examine market returns around dividend announcements that contrast with a pattern of prior dividend announcements.Design/methodology/approachThe paper identifies firms that have a smooth dividend pattern of once-a-year dividend increases but at some point break that pattern and announce an unchanged dividend. The sample design allows the opportunity to investigate the market reaction to unchanged dividend announcements when an increase was likely to have been expected.FindingsThe results indicate that failing to increase the dividend is associated with significantly positive abnormal returns that are greater in magnitude for more entrenched dividend-increase records, supporting a contrast-effect hypothesis.Originality/valueThe results indicate that dividends are interpreted not only relative to the immediate dividend amount but also how the decision contrasts with dividends over a prolonged period. This finding suggests that the information content of the announcement of an unchanged dividend can vary according to the prior dividend pattern.

The Effect of Dividend Announcements on Stock Returns for Companies Listed on the Main Board of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange

Stock market reactions to the announcements of final dividend increases, decreases and no changes are empirically analyzed in an emerging market environment. A standard event study methodology is adopted to examine the price reactions of 120 listed companies surrounding sixty days of the announcement dates. Although prior studies in developed countries postulate that dividend decreases are associated with negative abnormal returns, such a reaction was not found in the Malaysian capital market. The evidence nevertheless shows that dividend increases lead to positive abnormal returns, supporting the Information Content Hypothesis, Jensen :s Free Cash Flow Hypothesis and Agency Cost Theory. As for the no change dividend announcements, no clear pattern of cumulative average abnormal returns could be observed.