Detecting a Novel Walking-Based Performance Fatigability Marker With Accelerometry in Older Adults

Walking-based performance fatigability measures (e.g., lap-time difference) may not adequately capture performance deterioration as self-pacing is a common compensatory strategy in those with low activity tolerance. To overcome this limitation, we developed a new approach with accelerometry (ActiGraph GT3X+, sampling=80 Hz, non-dominant wrist) during fast-paced 400m-walk (N=57, age=78.7±5.7 years, women=53%). Cadence (steps/second) was estimated using raw accelerometer data (R “ADEPT”). Penalized regression splines (R “mgcv”) were used to estimate the individual-level smoothed cadence trajectories. “Time-to-slow-down” was defined as first time-point where the full confidence interval of change in cadence<0. Five participants were censored at stopping time (not slowdown or complete walk). Median “time-to-slow-down” was 1.86 minutes (IQR=0.98-2.73, range=0.57-6.25). Participants with longer “time-to-slow-down” had slower starting cadence, longer 400m-walk time, and greater perceived fatigability (Pittsburgh Fatigability Scale), p’s<0.05 (linear regression). Our preliminary findings revealed that detecting accelerometry-based performance fatigability/deterioration in older adults is feasible and needs to account for initial pace.

Towards a reproducible snow load map – an example for Austria

The European Committee for Standardization defines zonings and calculation criteria for different European regions to assign snow loads for structural design. In the Alpine region these defaults are quite coarse; countries therefore use their own products, and inconsistencies at national borders are a common problem. A new methodology to derive a snow load map for Austria is presented, which is reproducible and could be used across borders. It is based on (i) modeling snow loads with the specially developed Δsnow model at 897 sophistically quality controlled snow depth series in Austria and neighboring countries and (ii) a generalized additive model where covariates and their combinations are represented by penalized regression splines, fitted to series of yearly snow load maxima derived in the first step. This results in spatially modeled snow load extremes. The new approach outperforms a standard smooth model and is much more accurate than the currently used Austrian snow load map when compared to the RMSE of the 50-year snow load return values through a cross-validation procedure. No zoning is necessary, and the new map's RMSE of station-wise estimated 50-year generalized extreme value (GEV) return levels gradually rises to 2.2 kN m−2 at an elevation of 2000 m. The bias is 0.18 kN m−2 and positive across all elevations. When restricting the range of validity of the new map to 2000 m elevation, negative bias values that significantly underestimate 50-year snow loads at a very small number of stations are the only objective problem that has to be solved before the new map can be proposed as a successor of the current Austrian snow load map.

Towards a reproducible snow load map – an example for Austria

<p>The European Committee for Standardization provides coarse rules for the estimation of snow load maps for structural design. European countries can apply their own methodologies, resulting in inconsistencies for the 50-year return level of snow load at national borders. Commonly used approaches base on more or less sophisticated interpolation of snow depths with a subsequent assignment of snow density, or spatial extreme value interpolation of snow load measurements.  </p><p>We propose a novel methodology for Austria, where snow load observations are not available. It is based on (1) modeling yearly snow load maxima with the specially developed ∆SNOW model, and (2) a generalized additive model, where explaining covariates and their combinations are represented by penalized regression splines, fitted to such derived snow load series. Results show an RMSE of 0.7 kN/m<sup>2</sup>, and a BIAS of -0.2 kN/m<sup>2</sup> over all altitudes, thereby outperforming a smooth spatial extreme value model and the actual Austrian standard, when compared to locally estimated, “quasi-observed “ 50-year snow load maxima at 870 stations in and tightly around Austria.</p><p>The new approach requires no zoning and provides a reproducible and transparent approach. Due to the relatively ease of use and snow depth measurements as single prerequisite, the method is applicable in other countries as well. Negative BIASes, that significantly underestimate 50-year snow loads at a small number of stations, are the only objective problem that has to be solved before the new map can be proposed as a successor of the actual Austrian snow load map.</p>

Climate sensitivity and resistance under pure- and mixed-stand scenarios in Lower Austria evaluated with distributed lag models and penalized regression splines for tree-ring time series

Penalized regression splines and distributed lag models were used to evaluate the effects of species mixing on productivity and climate-related resistance via tree-ring width measurements from sample cores. Data were collected in Lower Austria from sample plots arranged in a triplet design. Triplets were established for sessile oak [Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.] and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.], and European beech and European larch (Larix decidua Mill.). Mixing shortened the temporal range of time-lagged climate effects for beech, spruce, and larch, but only slightly changed the effects for oak and pine. Beech and spruce as well as beech and larch exhibited contrasting climate responses, which were consequently reversed by mixing. Single-tree productivity was reduced by between − 15% and − 28% in both the mixed oak–pine and beech–spruce stands but only slightly reduced in the mixed beech–larch stands. Measures of climate sensitivity and resistance were derived by model predictions of conditional expectations for simulated climate sequences. The relative climate sensitivity was, respectively, reduced by between − 16 and − 39 percentage points in both the beech–spruce and beech–larch mixed stands. The relative climate sensitivity of pine increased through mixing, but remained unaffected for oak. Mixing increased the resistance in both the beech–larch and the beech–spruce mixed stand. In the mixed oak–pine stand, resistance of pine was decreased and remained unchanged for oak.

Estimating the impact of vaccination using age–time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B

SUMMARYThe objective of this study was to model the age–time-dependent incidence of hepatitis B while estimating the impact of vaccination. While stochastic models/time-series have been used before to model hepatitis B cases in the absence of knowledge on the number of susceptibles, this paper proposed using a method that fits into the generalized additive model framework. Generalized additive models with penalized regression splines are used to exploit the underlying continuity of both age and time in a flexible non-parametric way. Based on a unique case notification dataset, we have shown that the implemented immunization programme in Bulgaria resulted in a significant decrease in incidence for infants in their first year of life with 82% (79–84%). Moreover, we have shown that conditional on an assumed baseline susceptibility percentage, a smooth force-of-infection profile can be obtained from which two local maxima were observed at ages 9 and 24 years.