Time-varying threshold cointegration with an application to the Fisher hypothesis

This paper extends the threshold cointegration model developed by Gonzalo, J., and J. Y. Pitarakis. 2006. “Threshold Effects in Cointegrating Relationships.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics 68: 813–33 and Chen, H. 2015. “Robust Estimation and Inference for Threshold Models with Integrated Regressors.” Econometric Theory 31 (4): 778–810 to allow for a time-varying threshold, which is a function of candidate variables that affect the separation of regimes. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the proposed least-square estimator of the threshold, and study the convergence rate of the threshold estimator. We also suggest test statistics for threshold effect and threshold constancy. Monte Carlo simulations point out that the convergence rate of the threshold estimator is consistent with the asymptotic theory, and the proposed tests have good size and power properties. The empirical usefulness of the proposed model is illustrated by an application to the US data to investigate the Fisher hypothesis.

Nominal Interest Rate, Inflation Money and Market Link in Bangladesh: An Econometric Analysis

This paper pursues to establish a connection among the nominal interest rate, the money market, and the inflation rate in Bangladesh using monthly time series data from June 2005 to March 2019. Because some data are stationary at the level and others are stationary at the 1st difference, the ARDL model is applicable for checking the link. There is a strong positive short-term and long-term relationship between inflation and nominal interest rates, suggesting that Bangladeshi data support the Fisher hypothesis for that time. For this study, the T bill, the call money rate is used as a measure of the money market. The research indicates that regulators should concentrate on call money rates in short-term and T-bill and call money rates in the long-term to control Bangladesh's nominal interest rate.

A parametric stationarity test with smooth breaks

We propose a test to investigate the stationarity null against the unit-root alternative where a Fourier component is employed to approximate nonlinear deterministic trend of unknown form. A parametric adjustment is also adopted to accommodate possible stationary error. The asymptotic distribution of the test under the null is derived, and the asymptotic critical values are tabulated. We also show that it is a consistent test. Even with small sample sizes often encountered in empirical applications, our parametric stationarity test employing Fourier term has good size and power properties when trend breaks are gradual. The validity of the Fisher hypothesis for 15 OECD countries is investigated to illustrate the usefulness of our test.

Inflation Instability Impact on Interest Rate in Egypt: Augmented Fisher Hypothesis Test

The paper aims at examining an augmented version of Fisher hypothesis that include inflation instability. According to this hypothesis, there is a positive relation between interest rates and expected inflation. In contrast, there is a debate regarding the impact of inflation uncertainty on interest rate. According to the portfolio theory and models of asset pricing, inflation instability positively affects the interest rate. The reason is that risk-averse investors must be compensated with higher returns for higher risks. In contrast, the loanable funds theory implies a negative impact of inflation instability and interest rates since high uncertainty leads consumers to protect themselves against inflation by raising their savings which lowers consumption and interest rates. To compute inflation volatility, we applied different Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models. The simple and augmented versions of Fisher hypothesis are examined using Markov Switch Model to account for possible regime shift in that relationship. For the original Fisher hypothesis, there is an evidence of supporting it in the first regime while that hypothesis does not hold in the second one. In the augmented version of Fisher hypothesis, portfolio theory hypothesis is verified in the first regime whereas the loanable funds hypothesis is confirmed in the second one.

Changes in persistence, spurious regressions and the Fisher hypothesis

Declining inflation persistence has been documented in numerous studies. We show that when time series with changes in persistence are analyzed in a regression framework with other persistent time series like interest rates, spurious regressions are likely to occur. We propose the coefficient of determination