DYNAMIC SUPPLY RESPONSE : IMPLICATIONS FOR INDONESIA SOYBEAN CROP

The purpose of the study is to explore the supply response model of the soybean crop in terms of alternative specifications also implications economics. To apply model, considerations through the availability of production lags concept also the existence of expected price and gross revenue because of producer’s response explanatory preference on movement economic situation. The results showed that the existing lags were due mostly to the problems also quick adjustment expenditure rather than correcting expected time. The quantitative result was the same as gross margins and prices alternative specification as the availability of economic decisions. Meanwhile, elasticities price found through the model response specification tended around a fourth of the model applying price specification. The model response specification produced more explanation in terms of production also elasticity of input expenditure.

Analysis of Bank Default Factors in 2013–2019

This paper studies bank defaults in the Russian Federation in recent years. Firstly, the Central Bank of Russia tightened prudential regulation in 2013. Secondly, a decrease in oil prices and economic sanctions resulted in a crisis in 2014–2015 with a huge depreciation of the national currency, which influenced the Russian banking sector substantially. Almost half of banks in Russia have been closed in the last 6 years. Through binary logistic models of bank defaults based on data for Q3 2013 through Q1 2019, the paper reveals the key factors which had an influence on the sustainability of Russian banks. The main result is that involvement in classical banking exposes banks to default risks. Excessive reserves appeared to be an important indicator of default as well. A special measure of liquidity creation was constructed. We found that high levels of liquidity creation increased the probability of bank failure. It is also worth mentioning that excessive liquidity creation put higher risks on a given bank in the crisis period. We can conclude that regulatory authorities should pay attention to high liquidity creators, especially in the group of small and medium-sized banks. We also found some evidence of an improvement in prudential regulation by the Bank of Russia. Separate models were estimated for the sample of 150 larger banks, which is more homogeneous and is of primary interest for the regulator. A number of variables, including the level of liquidity creation, turned out to be insignificant; however, high reserve values for possible losses still increase the probability of default to a large extent. Logistic panel regressions were also considered as an alternative specification.

FARM RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF MACEDONIAN AGRICULTURE USING THE RICARDIAN MODELING APPROACH

Agriculture is one of most vulnerable sectors in the country, with the imminent intensification of global warming effects. In this paper, we attempt to assess the adaptation of Macedonian crop farmers to the impact of climate change. An alternative specification of the Ricardian model is adopted by using a composite aridity index to capture the re-sponse of farm returns to temperatures and precipitations. The econometric results indicate the significance of winter and summer season weather-related variables and confirm the non-linearity of the climatic function in relation to the farmers’ economic results and adaptation capacity. The farm returns are highly sensitive to different climate change scenarios and tend to decrease unless adequate adaptation and mitigation measures take place, both at micro and macro levels.

Family Ruptures, Stress, and the Mental Health of the Next Generation: Comment

The empirical methodology used by Persson and Rossin-Slater (2018) to estimate the causal effect of in utero exposure to stress contains a potentially significant flaw. They define the control group in a way that may bias their causal estimates and can lead to the finding of a significant relationship when there is none. In this note, I describe the source of the bias and suggest an alternative specification of the control group. (JEL I12, J12, J13)

John W. Kingdon,

This chapter examines John Kingdon’s bookAgendas, Alternatives, and American Public Policy, considered an alternative to the more technocratic existing theories of policy-making. It begins by summarizing what the book says about American public policy and looking at the interlocking innovations that made it so important. In particular, it analyses two political processes that differ from the better known aspects of politics: agenda-setting and alternative specification. It then turns its attention to the second conceptual innovation inAgendas: the three streams of policy, politics, and problems. The chapter also describes coupling and the window of opportunity as potentially the most theoretically difficult parts of the book. In addition, it discusses potential theoretical directions that would go beyond further replication ofAgendas.