scholarly journals The Effects of Market and Macroeconomic Uncertainties on Corporate Investment Decisions in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 104-113
Author(s):  
Jonathan Oniovosa OSOSUAKPOR
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Corporate Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Corporate Investments ◽  
Exchange Rate Uncertainty ◽  
Significant Difference

In this paper, the effect of market and macroeconomic uncertainties on corporate investment decisions was examined using the real option investment theory. Two types of uncertainties were investigated: macroeconomic uncertainties (exchange, interest and inflation rates) and market uncertainty (stock market volatility) while corporate investments were measured as the sum of the changes in capital stock and depreciation. Data were obtained for the period 2005-2019 and the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) estimation technique was employed. The results showed a significant difference between the effects of macroeconomic and market uncertainties on corporate investment decisions. We found that macroeconomic uncertainty of inflation rate has positive relationship with corporate investments, with a coefficient of 0.35071, and interest rate uncertainty (0.15567) and exchange rate uncertainty (-0.07852) were also statistically significant, whereas the linear market uncertainty has a negative value of -0.00173 and the quadratic market uncertainty (0.00520) was statistically insignificant. Therefore, interest rate volatility and inflation expectations are not factors constraining investment growth; however, exchange rate uncertainty exerts a substantial negative influence on corporate investment in Nigeria. Given the findings, the study recommends, among others, an appropriate and stable exchange rate policy that makes for easy business planning and forecasting by rational investors. To achieve a stable exchange rate that would bring about increased investment, the government should implement efficient macroeconomic policies, such as those that minimize the structural rigidities in the economy.

scholarly journals Structural attributes of firms, irreversibility, and uncertainty of corporate investment in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 397-407
Author(s):  
Jonathan Oniovosa Ososuakpor
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Corporate Investment ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Corporate Investments ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty

In the Nigerian context, there is a gap in the literature on the structural attributes of firms and the extent to which corporate investments are irreversible. Thus, this study was to empirically examine the structural attributes of firms, irreversibility, and uncertainty of corporate investment using the real options theory of investment. The study is based on annual data series of firms listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange from 2005 to 2019. The study measured structural attributes using competitiveness and monopoly/oligopoly of a firm, macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation, interest, and exchange rates, and examines their association with corporate investments. The study was conducted using a panel dataset adopting a fixed-effect estimation technique that takes into account potential endogeneity and firm specific-effects. The result showed that the macroeconomic uncertainty measure of exchange rate volatility is strongly detrimental to corporate investment decisions. Furthermore, interest rate and inflation volatilities are not detrimental to investment growth, while exchange rate uncertainty has a substantial negative influence on corporate investment. Besides, macroeconomic uncertainty was found to be a greater disincentive for firms with irreversible investments than for firms with more easily reversible investment projects.

Downfall of the Regulatory System and Triumph of the Market

2020 ◽  
pp. 230-250
Author(s):  
Einar Lie
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Regulatory System ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Institutional Legitimacy ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Interest Rate

This chapter discusses how, in the 1970s and 1980s, Norges Bank began to develop instruments with a view to steering economic policy under freer market conditions. However, governments of changing political hues were unwilling to let go of the low interest rate. The oil price fall in 1986 brought an abrupt change in interest rate and credit policy. The government’s tightening actions included the introduction of a more binding fixed exchange rate policy. The frequent recourse to corrective devaluations was to be a thing of the past. Hence, there was a justification for using the interest rate as an ongoing instrument to stabilize the exchange rate. This task fell to Norges Bank. The transition to an independent, active interest rate policy on the part of the central bank was abrupt and came as a surprise. Barely a year before the collapse of the oil price, the Storting had passed a law that made Norges Bank one of the least autonomous central banks in all of western Europe. Ultimately, it was the external situation, and in no sense an increase in government’s and the public’s recognition of the bank and its institutional legitimacy, that restored greater operative autonomy to Norges Bank.

Coordination of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in China: Market Interest Rate Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 456-464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bing Xu ◽  
◽  
Qiuqin He ◽  
Xiaowen Hu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
Market Interest Rate ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Inflation Inertia

We propose a unique time-varying identification approach to the market interest rate based on Taylor Rule for coordinating the monetary and exchange rate policies. The significant differences exist between real and market interest rates — 2001 and 2009 are high real interest rates, and 2004-2005 and 2010-2012 low real interest rates — that identify monetary and exchange rate policy conflicts in China. These conflicts derive from the indirect effect of monetary factor through interest rate inertia and expected output gap in 2001; the indirect effect of exchange rate factor through interest rates and inflation inertia in 2004-2005; the direct effects of monetary and the exchange rate factors and the indirect effects through interest rate and inflation inertia, and the expected inflation and output gap since 2009. Our empirical results provide decision support for the monetary and exchange rate policy for reforming Chinese market interest rates.

Exploring the Relationships among Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market in Indonesia

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 37-43
Author(s):  
Sherlinda Octa Yuniarsa ◽  
Jui-Chuan Della Chang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Stock Market Volatility

Objective - The purpose of this research is to explore the relationships among interest rate, exchange rate, and stock price in Indonesia. Methodology/Technique - This study used data from the Central Bank of Indonesia to empirically test a proposed model of interest rate, exchange rate, and stock price. Findings - The findings confirmed that there are positive volatilities from exchange rate and negative volatility from interest rate. The relationships among interest rate, exchange rate, and stock market excessive volatility a little bit strengthen during economic crises, a study that allows for structural breaks, to account for the effects of sudden macroeconomic shocks, recessions, and financial crises, would be important to empirical literature on Indonesia. Novelty - This study proved that it is important to point out the variance decomposition results also showed that except for volatility in the exchange rate, interest rate, and stock market volatility also seems to explain quite a high proportion of the some variations of the macroeconomic excessive volatility. Type of Paper - Conceptual Keywords: interest rate volatility, exchange rate volatility, stock market volatility, emerging market, Asymmetric ARCH models

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound

2019 ◽  
Vol 87 (4) ◽  
pp. 1605-1645 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel Amador ◽  
Javier Bianchi ◽  
Luigi Bocola ◽  
Fabrizio Perri
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Monetary Authority ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Interest Rate Parity ◽  
Covered Interest Parity ◽  
Rate Parity

Abstract We study the problem of a monetary authority pursuing an exchange rate policy that is inconsistent with interest rate parity because of a binding zero lower bound constraint. The resulting violation in interest rate parity generates an inflow of capital that the monetary authority needs to absorb by accumulating foreign reserves. We show that these interventions by the monetary authority are costly, and we derive a simple measure of these costs: they are proportional to deviations from the covered interest parity (CIP) condition and the amount of accumulated foreign reserves. Our framework can account for the recent experiences of “safe-haven” currencies and the sign of their observed deviations from CIP.

scholarly journals PERBEDAAN MANAGED FLOAT EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM DAN FREELY FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM DI INDONESIA

2003 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mudji Utami
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Relative Rate ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Float Exchange Rate ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Floating System ◽  
Exchange Rate System

Consequence of the freely floating system and freely foreign exchange system, rupiah could he easily fluctuated, because exchange rate shift not in response but as governed by the interaction between supply and demand in the money markets. The supply and demand forces are influenced by the relative interest rate and relative of inflation. Thus this study examine whether there is a difference of magnitude in the influence of the relative interest rate and relative rate of inflation to the USD - IRD exchange rate when Indonesia adopts respectively the managed float exchange rate system and the freely floating exchange rate system. The finding shows at the level of confidence 95%, that there is no significant difference in the influence of the relative interest rate and relative rate of inflation to the USD - IRD exchange rates between both systems.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis Of The Determinants Of Exchange Rate In Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oke, Michale Ojo. ◽  
Adetan, Taiwo Temitayo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Government

This study examined empirically the determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria using the ARDL Bounds test approach to co-integration for the period spanning 1986-2016. The result of the analysis shows that the gross domestic product (GDP), Interest rate (INT) and inflation rate (INF) have positive effect on exchange rate in Nigeria while degree of openness (DOP) recorded a negative effect on exchange rate (EXR) in Nigeria. The Error Correction Mechanism result appeared to be correctly signed and significant. The study therefore concluded that gross domestic product, interest rate and inflation rate are the major determinant of exchange rate in Nigeria under the study period. It is therefore recommended that government should focus more on production of goods and services that can be exported and also introduce policies that can discourage importation of goods into the country. The government must pursue a realistic and pragmatic exchange rate policy in  the  less  free  trade areas that would stem capital  flight and  ensure more investment in the Nigerian economy.

CHINA'S NEW EXCHANGE RATE POLICY: WILL CHINA FOLLOW JAPAN INTO A LIQUIDITY TRAP?

2005 ◽  
Vol 50 (spec01) ◽  
pp. 463-474 ◽  
Author(s):  
RONALD I. MCKINNON
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Foreign Exchange Risk ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Exchange Risk ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The One

Todays' American mercantile pressure on China to appreciate the renminbi against the dollar is eerily similar to the American pressure on Japan to appreciate the yen that began over 30 years ago. There are some differences between the two cases, but downward pressure on Chinese interest rates from foreign exchange risk could lead China into a zero interest rate liquidity trap much like the one that Japan has suffered since the mid-1990s.

scholarly journals Determinants and Sustainability of Manufacturing Sector Performance in Nigeria: The Roles of Selected Macroeconomic Variables

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
Falade Abidemi Olufemi Olusegun
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Market Force ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Sector Performance

Manufacturing sector is a vibrant sector that spurs growth in every other sector of the economy. Despite this, macroeconomic environment in the country has not made this desire materialized. Therefore, the study examined the determinants and sustainability of manufacturing sector performance in Nigeria from 1994-2019. The data used include manufacturing sector output, interest rate, real exchange rate, tax rate, money supply and trade openness. Also, Error Correction Model (ECM) and Pairwise Granger Causality(PGC) techniques were used for the formulated objective. The unit root test confirmed stationarity of interest rate at level; while other were integrated of order one (D = 1). The Johansen co-integration established a long-run relationships. The ECM corrected the disequilibrium at an annual rate of 77.5%. Also, real exchange rate, tax rate and trade openness had a direct and significant effect on manufacturing sector output. While, interest rate and money supply were non-significance. The PGC result revealed a bi-directional causality between real exchange rate and manufacturing sector and tax rate and manufacturing sector output. It was concluded that increase in consumption tax, real exchange rate and liberation of the economy were the determinants of manufacturing sector performance, while appreciation of nigeria’s currency (naira) and increase in tax rate with proportional improvement in infrastructural facilities are needed to sustain it. Therefore, recommended that the financial institutions especially the apex bank should eliminate different bench-mark of exchange rate policy by allowing the market force of demand and supply to depict the real value of naira.

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