In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, some smokers have experienced increased motivation to quit smoking, due to the higher risk of severe COVID-19 infection. However, this is not found across all smokers, and the motivation to quit appears dependent upon factors such as fear of COVID-19 and perceived risk from COVID-19. In the current investigation, specific COVID-19 risk beliefs were measured to isolate which beliefs predicted the motivation to quit smoking, these being the perceived severity of COVID-19 and perceived probability of COVID-19 infection. UK based smokers (N = 243) completed an online survey between September and October 2020, in which they reported their current motivation to quit smoking, fear of COVID-19, and their beliefs about how severe COVID-19 infection would be and how probable COVID-19 infection was. The only significant predictor of the motivation to quit smoking was the perceived probability of COVID-19 infection. This positive relationship remained when controlling for the general perceived probability and severity of other smoking related health conditions, suggesting a COVID-19-specific effect. Further, fear of COVID-19 only indirectly related to an increase in motivation to quit, when mediated through perceived probability of COVID-19 infection. The result places the perceived probability of COVID-19 infection as a central predictor of motivation to quit during the pandemic. Based on this evidence, messaging to smokers aiming to facilitate smoking cessation during the pandemic should focus on the highly contagious nature of the virus, to increase the motivation to quit.