<b>OBJECTIVE:
</b>Several
diabetes clinical practice guidelines suggest that treatment goals may be
modified in older adults based on comorbidities, complications and life
expectancy. The long-term benefits of treatment
intensification may not outweigh short-term risks for patients with limited
life expectancy. Due to the uncertainty of determining life expectancy for
individual patients, we sought to develop and validate prognostic indices for
mortality in older adults with diabetes.
<p><b>RESEARCH
DESIGN AND METHODS: </b>We used a prevalence sample of Veterans
with diabetes who were aged ≥65 years on January 1, 2006 (n=275,190). Administrative data were queried for
potential predictors that included patient demographics, comorbidities and
procedure codes, lab values and anthropomorphic measurements, medication
history, and previous health services utilization. Logistic least absolute shrinkage and
selection operator (LASSO) regressions were employed to identify variables
independently associated with mortality. The resulting odds ratios were then
weighted to create prognostic indices of mortality over 5 and 10 years. </p>
<p><b>RESULTS:
</b>Thirty-three
predictors of mortality were identified: four demographic variables,
prescriptions for insulin or sulfonylureas, five biomarkers, previous
outpatient and inpatient utilization, and twenty comorbidities/procedures. The
prognostic indices showed good discrimination, with c-statistics of 0.74 and
0.76 for 5 and 10-year mortality, respectively. The indices also demonstrated
excellent agreement between observed outcome and predictions, with calibration
slopes of 1.01 for both 5 and 10-year mortality.</p>
<p><b>CONCLUSIONS:
</b>Prognostic
indices obtained from administrative data can predict 5- and 10-year mortality
in older adults with diabetes. Such a tool may enable clinicians and patients
to develop individualized treatment goals that balance risks and benefits of
treatment intensification. </p>