A Brief Study on the Achievement of Syukuro Manabe, Awardee of 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics

Manabe Syukuro is well known as a father of climate modeling. He and his colleagues have achieved several important milestones in the research on global warming. In this article, two highly advanced subjects are described. In the early 1960s, he developed a radiative-convective model of the atmosphere and explored the role of greenhouse gases, such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, and ozone in maintaining and changing the thermal structure of the atmosphere. His study was the beginning of long-term research on global warming. In 1969, Manabe and Bryan published the first results from a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM). However, this model used a highly idealized continent-ocean configuration. Results from the first coupled OAGCM with more realistic configurations were published in 1975, which eventually became a very powerful tool for the simulation of global warming.

FORTE 2.0: a fast, parallel and flexible coupled climate model

FORTE 2.0 is an intermediate resolution coupled Ocean Atmosphere General Circulation Model (AOGCM) consisting of IGCM4, a T42 spectral atmosphere with 35 σ layers, coupled to MOMA, a 2° × 2° ocean with 15 z layer depth levels. It is capable of producing a stable climate for long integrations without the need for flux adjustments. One flexibility afforded by the IGCM4 atmosphere is the ability to configure the atmosphere with either 35 σ layers (troposphere and stratosphere) or 20 σ layers (troposphere only). This enables experimental designs for exploring the roles of the troposphere and stratosphere, and the faster integration of the 20 σ layer configuration enables longer duration studies on modest hardware. A description of FORTE 2.0 is given, followed by analysis of a 2000 year long control integration.

Impact of Gravity wave drag on the thermospheric circulation: Implementation of a nonlinear gravity wave parameterization in a whole atmosphere model

To investigate the effects of the gravity wave (GW) drag on the general circulation in the thermosphere, a nonlinear GW parameterization that estimates the GW drag in the whole atmosphere system is implemented in a whole atmosphere general circulation model (GCM). Comparing the simulation results obtained with the whole atmosphere scheme with the ones obtained with a conventional linear scheme, we study the GW effects on the thermospheric dynamics for solstice conditions. The GW drag significantly decelerates the mean zonal wind in the thermosphere. The GWs attenuate the migrating semidiurnal solar tide (SW2) amplitude in the lower thermosphere, and modifies the latitudinal structure of the SW2 above 150 km height. The SW2 simulated by the GCM based on the nonlinear whole atmosphere scheme agrees well with the observed SW2. The GW drag in the lower thermosphere has zonal wavenumber 2 and semidiurnal variation, while the GW drag above 150 km height is enhanced in high latitude. The GW drag in the thermosphere is a significant dynamical and plays an important role in the momentum budget of the thermosphere. Therefore, a GW parameterization accounting for thermospheric processes is essential for coarse-grid whole atmosphere GCMs in order to more realistically simulate the atmosphere-ionosphere system.

Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Gravity Wave Sources and Intermittency Revealed by a Middle-Atmosphere General Circulation Model

Southern Hemisphere extratropical gravity wave activity is examined using simulations from a free-running middle-atmosphere general circulation model called Kanto that contains no gravity wave parameterizations. The total absolute gravity wave momentum flux (MF) and its intermittency, diagnosed by the Gini coefficient, are examined during January and July. The MF and intermittency results calculated from the Kanto model agree well with results from satellite limb and superpressure balloon observations. The analysis of the Kanto model simulations indicates the following results. Nonorographic gravity waves are generated in Kanto in the frontal regions of extratropical depressions and around tropopause-level jets. Regions with lower (higher) intermittency in the July midstratosphere become more (less) intermittent by the mesosphere as a result of lower-level wave removal. The gravity wave intermittency is low and nearly homogeneous throughout the SH middle atmosphere during January. This indicates that nonorographic waves dominate at this time of year, with sources including continental convection as well as oceanic depressions. Most of the zonal-mean MF at 40°–65°S in January and July is due to gravity waves located above the oceans. The zonal-mean MF at lower latitudes in both months has a larger contribution from the land regions but the fraction above the oceans remains larger.

Global Atmospheric Model Simulates Fine Details of Gravity Waves

Whole-atmosphere general circulation model captures many aspects of mesoscale gravity wave structures—down to the tens of kilometers—and resulting temperatures and tides.

Ensemble-Based Parameter Estimation in a Coupled GCM Using the Adaptive Spatial Average Method*

Ensemble-based parameter estimation for a climate model is emerging as an important topic in climate research. For a complex system such as a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model, the sensitivity and response of a model variable to a model parameter could vary spatially and temporally. Here, an adaptive spatial average (ASA) algorithm is proposed to increase the efficiency of parameter estimation. Refined from a previous spatial average method, the ASA uses the ensemble spread as the criterion for selecting “good” values from the spatially varying posterior estimated parameter values; these good values are then averaged to give the final global uniform posterior parameter. In comparison with existing methods, the ASA parameter estimation has a superior performance: faster convergence and enhanced signal-to-noise ratio.

Compensation of Hemispheric Albedo Asymmetries by Shifts of the ITCZ and Tropical Clouds

Despite a substantial hemispheric asymmetry in clear-sky albedo, observations of Earth’s radiation budget reveal that the two hemispheres have the same all-sky albedo. Here, aquaplanet simulations with the atmosphere general circulation model ECHAM6 coupled to a slab ocean are performed to study to what extent and by which mechanisms clouds compensate hemispheric asymmetries in clear-sky albedo. Clouds adapt to compensate the imposed asymmetries because the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) shifts into the dark surface hemisphere. The strength of this tropical compensation mechanism is linked to the magnitude of the ITCZ shift. In some cases the ITCZ shift is so strong as to overcompensate the hemispheric asymmetry in clear-sky albedo, yielding a range of climates for which the hemisphere with lower clear-sky albedo has a higher all-sky albedo. The ITCZ shift is sensitive to the convection scheme and the depth of the slab ocean. Cloud–radiative feedbacks explain part of the sensitivity to the convection scheme as they amplify the ITCZ shift in the Tiedtke (TTT) scheme but have a neutral effect in the Nordeng (TNT) scheme. A shallower slab ocean depth, and thereby reduced thermal inertia of the underlying surface and increased seasonal cycle, stabilizes the ITCZ against annual-mean shifts. The results lend support to the idea that the climate system adjusts so as to minimize hemispheric albedo asymmetries, although there is no indication that the hemispheres must have exactly the same albedo.