Does disabling cloud radiative feedbacks change spatial patterns of surface greenhouse warming and cooling?

The processes controlling idealized warming and cooling patterns are examined in 150 year-long fully coupled Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) experiments under abrupt CO2 forcing. By simulation end, 2xCO2 global warming was 20% larger than 0.5xCO2 global cooling. Not only was the absolute global effective radiative forcing ∼10% larger for 2xCO2 than for 0.5xCO2, global feedbacks were also less negative for 2xCO2 than for 0.5xCO2. Specifically, more positive shortwave cloud feedbacks led to more 2xCO2 global warming than 0.5xCO2 global cooling. Over high latitude oceans, differences between 2xCO2 warming and 0.5xCO2 cooling were amplified by familiar linked positive surface albedo and lapse rate feedbacks associated with sea ice change. At low latitudes, 2xCO2 warming exceeded 0.5xCO2 cooling almost everywhere. Tropical Pacific cloud feedbacks amplified: 1) more fast warming than fast cooling in the west, 2) slow pattern differences between 2xCO2 warming and 0.5xCO2 cooling in the east. Motivated to quantify cloud influence, a companion suite of experiments were run without cloud radiative feedbacks. Disabling cloud radiative feedbacks reduced the effective radiative forcing and surface temperature responses for both 2xCO2 and 0.5xCO2. Notably, 20% more global warming than global cooling occurred regardless of whether cloud feedbacks were enabled or disabled. This surprising consistency resulted from the cloud influence on non-cloud feedbacks and circulation. With the exception of the Tropical Pacific, disabling cloud feedbacks did little to change surface temperature response patterns including the large high-latitude responses driven by non-cloud feedbacks. The findings provide new insights into the regional processes controlling the response to greenhouse gas forcing, especially for clouds.

A simple model of ozone–temperature coupling in the tropical lower stratosphere

Observations show strong correlations between large-scale ozone and temperature variations in the tropical lower stratosphere across a wide range of timescales. We quantify this behavior using monthly records of ozone and temperature data from Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesonde (SHADOZ) tropical balloon measurements (1998–2016), along with global satellite data from Aura microwave limb sounder and GPS radio occultation over 2004–2018. The observational data demonstrate strong in-phase ozone–temperature coherence spanning sub-seasonal, annual and interannual timescales, and the slope of the temperature–ozone relationship (T / O3) varies as a function of timescale and altitude. We compare the observations to idealized calculations based on the coupled zonal mean thermodynamic and ozone continuity equations, including ozone radiative feedbacks on temperature, where both temperature and ozone respond in a coupled manner to variations in the tropical upwelling Brewer–Dobson circulation. These calculations can approximately explain the observed (T / O3) amplitude and phase relationships, including sensitivity to timescale and altitude, and highlight distinct balances for “fast” variations (periods < 150 d, controlled by transport across background vertical gradients) and “slow” coupling (seasonal and interannual variations, controlled by radiative balances).

High latitude vegetation changes will determine future plant volatile impacts on atmospheric organic aerosols

Strong, ongoing high latitude-warming is causing changes to vegetation composition and plant productivity, modifying plant emissions of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs). In the sparsely populated high latitudes, climatic feedbacks resulting from BVOCs as precursors of atmospheric aerosols could be more important than elsewhere on the globe. Here, we quantitatively assess the linkages between vegetation changes, BVOC emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) under different climate scenarios and show that warming-induced vegetation changes determine the spatial patterns of BVOC impacts on SOA. The northward advances of boreal needle-leaved trees and shrubs result in an increase of up to 45% in regional SOA optical depth, causing a cooling feedback. In contrast, areas dominated by temperate broad-leaved trees show a large decline in monoterpene emissions and SOA formation, causing a warming feedback. We highlight the necessity of considering vegetation shifts when assessing radiative feedbacks on climate following the BVOC-SOA pathway.

A simple model of ozone-temperature coupling in the tropical lower stratosphere

Observations show strong correlations between large-scale ozone and temperature variations in the tropical lower stratosphere across a wide range of time scales. We quantify this behavior using monthly records of ozone and temperature data from SHADOZ tropical balloon measurements (1998–2016), along with global satellite data from Aura MLS and GPS radio occultation over 2004–2018. The observational data demonstrate strong in-phase ozone-temperature coherence spanning sub-seasonal, annual and interannual time scales, and the slope of the ozone-temperature relationship (O3/T) varies as a function of time scale and altitude. We compare the observations to idealized calculations based on the coupled zonal mean thermodynamic and ozone continuity equations, including ozone radiative feedbacks on temperature, where both temperature and ozone respond in a coupled manner to variations in the tropical upwelling Brewer-Dobson circulation. These calculations can approximately explain the observed (O3/T) amplitude and phase relationships, including sensitivity to time scale and altitude, and highlight distinct balances for ‘fast’ variations (periods < 150 days, controlled by transport across background vertical gradients) and ‘slow’ coupling (seasonal and interannual variations, controlled by radiative balances).

The Effect of an Equatorial Continent on the Tropical Rain Belt. Part 1: Annual Mean Changes in the ITCZ

The Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP) ensemble includes slab-ocean aquaplanet controls and experiments with a highly idealized tropical continent: modified aquaplanet grid cells with increased evaporative resistance, increased albedo, reduced heat capacity, and no ocean heat transport (zero Q-flux). In the annual mean, an equatorial cold tongue develops west of the continent and induces dry anomalies and a split in the oceanic ITCZ. Ocean cooling is initiated by advection of cold, dry air from the winter portion of the continent; warm, humid anomalies in the summer portion are restricted to the continent by anomalous surface convergence. The surface energy budget suggests that ocean cooling persists and intensifies because of a positive feedback between a colder surface, drier and colder air, reduced downwelling long wave (LW) flux, and enhanced net surface LW cooling (LW feedback). A feedback between wind, evaporation, and SST (WES feedback) also contributes to the establishment and maintenance of the cold tongue. Simulations with a grayradiation model and simulations that diverge from protocol (with negligible winter cooling) confirm the importance of moist-radiative feedbacks and of rectification effects on the seasonal cycle. This mechanism coupling the continental and oceanic climate might be relevant to the double ITCZ bias. The key role of the LW feedback suggests that the study of interactions between monsoons and oceanic ITCZs requires full-physics models and a hierarchy of land models that considers evaporative processes alongside heat capacity as a defining characteristic of land.

Investigating the impact of cloud-radiative feedbacks on tropical precipitation extremes

Although societally important, extreme precipitation is difficult to represent in climate models. This study shows one robust aspect of extreme precipitation across models: extreme precipitation over tropical oceans is strengthened through a positive feedback with cloud-radiative effects. This connection is shown for a multi-model ensemble with experiments that make clouds transparent to longwave radiation. In all cases, tropical extreme precipitation reduces without cloud-radiative effects. Qualitatively similar results are presented for one model using the cloud-locking method to remove cloud feedbacks. The reduced extreme precipitation without cloud-radiative feedbacks does not arise from changes in the mean climate. Rather, evidence is presented that cloud-radiative feedbacks enhance organization of convection and most extreme precipitation over tropical oceans occurs within organized systems. This result suggests that climate models must correctly predict cloud structure and properties, as well as capture the essence of organized convection in order to accurately represent extreme rainfall.

Why does the climate response to greenhouse warming and greenhouse cooling differ?

&lt;p&gt;While the long-standing quest to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity has resulted in intense scrutiny of the processes controlling idealized greenhouse warming, the processes controlling idealized greenhouse cooling have received less attention. Here, differences in the climate response to increased and decreased carbon dioxide concentrations are assessed in state-of-the-art fully coupled climate model experiments. One hundred and fifty years after an imposed instantaneous forcing change, surface global warming from a carbon dioxide doubling (abrupt-2xCO2, 2.43 K) is larger than the surface global cooling from a carbon dioxide halving (abrupt-0p5xCO2, 1.97 K). Both forcing and feedback differences explain these climate response differences. Multiple approaches show the radiative forcing for a carbon dioxide doubling is ~10% larger than for a carbon dioxide halving. In addition, radiative feedbacks are less negative in the doubling experiments than in the halving experiments. Specifically, less negative tropical shortwave cloud feedbacks and more positive subtropical cloud feedbacks lead to more greenhouse 2xCO2 warming than 0.5xCO2 greenhouse cooling. Motivated to directly isolate the influence of cloud feedbacks on these experiments, additional abrupt-2xCO2 and abrupt-0p5xCO2 experiments with disabled cloud-climate feedbacks were run. Comparison of these &amp;#8220;cloud-locked&amp;#8221; simulations with the original &amp;#8220;cloud active&amp;#8221; simulations shows cloud feedbacks help explain the nonlinear global surface temperature response to greenhouse warming and greenhouse cooling. Overall, these results demonstrate that both radiative forcing and radiative feedbacks are needed to explain differences in the surface climate response to increased and decreased carbon dioxide concentrations.&lt;/p&gt;