scholarly journals Survival trees based on heterogeneity in time‐to‐event and censoring distributions using parameter instability test

Author(s):  
Madan Gopal Kundu ◽  
Samiran Ghosh





2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 8-12
Author(s):  
Leo Alexander T Leo Alexander T ◽  
◽  
Pari Dayal L Pari Dayal L ◽  
Valarmathi S Valarmathi S ◽  
Ponnuraja C Ponnuraja C ◽  
...  


2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
Marlon A. Mojica ◽  
Virgilio M. Tatlonghari

This paper examines the empirical relationship between unemployment and real output in the Philippines utilizing quarterly data from the Labor Force Survey by the Philippine Statistics Authority for the period from 1990-2014. The study employed three variants of Okun’s Law – the “gap” approach, the “first difference” approach, and a dynamic approach.   Findings show that the Okun’s coefficients based on the gap approach are consistent with the theoretical expectation of a negative relationship.  In the ARDL model, labor force participation rate and trade openness were found to be significantly related to unemployment. The result of dummy variable test revealed the presence of structural break following the re-definition of unemployment in the Philippines in 2005. Recursive least squares and rolling regressions show evidence of parameter instability in several sub-periods.





2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 587-599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ferran Pellisé ◽  
Miquel Serra-Burriel ◽  
Justin S. Smith ◽  
Sleiman Haddad ◽  
Michael P. Kelly ◽  
...  

OBJECTIVEAdult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery has a high rate of major complications (MCs). Public information about adverse outcomes is currently limited to registry average estimates. The object of this study was to assess the incidence of adverse events after ASD surgery, and to develop and validate a prognostic tool for the time-to-event risk of MC, hospital readmission (RA), and unplanned reoperation (RO).METHODSTwo models per outcome, created with a random survival forest algorithm, were trained in an 80% random split and tested in the remaining 20%. Two independent prospective multicenter ASD databases, originating from the European continent and the United States, were queried, merged, and analyzed. ASD patients surgically treated by 57 surgeons at 23 sites in 5 countries in the period from 2008 to 2016 were included in the analysis.RESULTSThe final sample consisted of 1612 ASD patients: mean (standard deviation) age 56.7 (17.4) years, 76.6% women, 10.4 (4.3) fused vertebral levels, 55.1% of patients with pelvic fixation, 2047.9 observation-years. Kaplan-Meier estimates showed that 12.1% of patients had at least one MC at 10 days after surgery; 21.5%, at 90 days; and 36%, at 2 years. Discrimination, measured as the concordance statistic, was up to 71.7% (95% CI 68%–75%) in the development sample for the postoperative complications model. Surgical invasiveness, age, magnitude of deformity, and frailty were the strongest predictors of MCs. Individual cumulative risk estimates at 2 years ranged from 3.9% to 74.1% for MCs, from 3.17% to 44.2% for RAs, and from 2.67% to 51.9% for ROs.CONCLUSIONSThe creation of accurate prognostic models for the occurrence and timing of MCs, RAs, and ROs following ASD surgery is possible. The presented variability in patient risk profiles alongside the discrimination and calibration of the models highlights the potential benefits of obtaining time-to-event risk estimates for patients and clinicians.







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