An adaptive time-stepping method based on a posteriori weak error analysis for large SDE systems

We develop an adaptive algorithm for large SDE systems, which automatically selects (quasi-)deterministic time steps for the semi-implicit Euler method, based on an a posteriori weak error estimate. Main tools to construct the a posteriori estimator are the representation of the weak approximation error via Kolmogorov’s backward equation, a priori bounds for its solution and the Clark–Ocone formula. For a certain class of SDE systems, we validate optimal weak convergence order 1 of the a posteriori estimator, and termination of the adaptive method based on it within $${{\mathcal {O}}}(\mathtt{Tol}^{-1})$$ O ( Tol - 1 ) steps.

Embedding non-linear filtering in autonomous underwater vehicle dynamics via the Kolmogorov backward equation

This paper revisits the state vector of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) dynamics coupled with the underwater Markovian stochasticity in the ‘non-linear filtering’ context. The underwater stochasticity is attributed to atmospheric turbulence, planetary interactions, sea surface conditions and astronomical phenomena. In this paper, we adopt the Itô process, a homogeneous Markov process, to describe the AUV state vector evolution equation. This paper accounts for the process noise as well as observation noise correction terms by considering the underwater filtering model. The non-linear filtering of the paper is achieved using the Kolmogorov backward equation and the evolution of the conditional characteristic function. The non-linear filtering equation is the cornerstone formalism of stochastic optimal control systems. Most notably, this paper introduces the non-linear filtering theory into an underwater vehicle stochastic system by constructing a lemma and a theorem for the underwater vehicle stochastic differential equation that were not available in the literature.

Existence and uniqueness of the solutions of forward-backward doubly stochastic differential equations with Poisson jumps

The paper addresses a system of nonlinear fully coupled forward-backward doubly stochastic differential equations with Poisson jumps. These equations are allowed to live in Euclidean spaces of different dimensions, and the system is Markovian in the sense that the terminal value of the backward equation depends on the terminal value of the solution of the forward one. Under some monotonicity conditions we establish the existence and uniqueness of strong solutions of such equations by using a continuation method.

The infinitesimal generator of the stochastic Burgers equation

We develop a martingale approach for a class of singular stochastic PDEs of Burgers type (including fractional and multi-component Burgers equations) by constructing a domain for their infinitesimal generators. It was known that the domain must have trivial intersection with the usual cylinder test functions, and to overcome this difficulty we import some ideas from paracontrolled distributions to an infinite dimensional setting in order to construct a domain of controlled functions. Using the new domain, we are able to prove existence and uniqueness for the Kolmogorov backward equation and the martingale problem. We also extend the uniqueness result for “energy solutions” of the stochastic Burgers equation of Gubinelli and Perkowski (J Am Math Soc 31(2):427–471, 2018) to a wider class of equations. As applications of our approach we prove that the stochastic Burgers equation on the torus is exponentially $$L^2$$ L 2 -ergodic, and that the stochastic Burgers equation on the real line is ergodic.

Estimation of Natural Selection and Allele Age from Time Series Allele Frequency Data Using a Novel Likelihood-Based Approach

Temporally spaced genetic data allow for more accurate inference of population genetic parameters and hypothesis testing on the recent action of natural selection. In this work, we develop a novel likelihood-based method for jointly estimating selection coefficient and allele age from time series data of allele frequencies. Our approach is based on a hidden Markov model where the underlying process is a Wright-Fisher diffusion conditioned to survive until the time of the most recent sample. This formulation circumvents the assumption required in existing methods that the allele is created by mutation at a certain low frequency. We calculate the likelihood by numerically solving the resulting Kolmogorov backward equation backward in time while reweighting the solution with the emission probabilities of the observation at each sampling time point. This procedure reduces the two-dimensional numerical search for the maximum of the likelihood surface, for both the selection coefficient and the allele age, to a one-dimensional search over the selection coefficient only. We illustrate through extensive simulations that our method can produce accurate estimates of the selection coefficient and the allele age under both constant and nonconstant demographic histories. We apply our approach to reanalyze ancient DNA data associated with horse base coat colors. We find that ignoring demographic histories or grouping raw samples can significantly bias the inference results.

On a non-standard two-species stochastic competing system and a related degenerate parabolic equation

We propose and analyse a new stochastic competing two-species population dynamics model. Competing algae population dynamics in river environment, important engineering problems, motivate this model. It is a system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and has a characteristic that the two populations are competing with each other through the environmental capacities. Unique existence of the uniformly bounded strong solution is proven and an attractor is identified. The Kolmogorov backward equation associated with the population dynamics is formulated and its unique solvability in a Banach space with a weighted norm is discussed. Our mathematical analysis results can be effectively utilized for a base-stone of modelling, analysis, and control of the competing population dynamics.

Maximum likelihood estimation of natural selection and allele age from time series data of allele frequencies

Temporally spaced genetic data allow for more accurate inference of population genetic parameters and hypothesis testing on the recent action of natural selection. In this work, we develop a novel likelihood-based method for jointly estimating selection coefficient and allele age from time series data of allele frequencies. Our approach is based on a hidden Markov model where the underlying process is a Wright-Fisher diffusion conditioned to survive until the time of the most recent sample. This formulation circumvents the assumption required in existing methods that the allele is created by mutation at a certain low frequency. We calculate the likelihood by numerically solving the resulting Kolmogorov backward equation backwards in time while re-weighting the solution with the emission probabilities of the observation at each sampling time point. This procedure reduces the two-dimensional numerical search for the maximum of the likelihood surface for both the selection coefficient and the allele age to a one-dimensional search over the selection coefficient only. We illustrate through extensive simulations that our method can produce accurate estimates of the selection coefficient and the allele age under both constant and non-constant demographic histories. We apply our approach to re-analyse ancient DNA data associated with horse base coat colours. We find that ignoring demographic histories or grouping raw samples can significantly bias the inference results.