A Win–Win Scenario for Agricultural Green Development and Farmers’ Agricultural Income: An Empirical Analysis Based on the EKC Hypothesis

Due to severe resource and environmental constraints, agricultural green development is a vital step for the low-carbon development of China. How to achieve the goal of a win–win scenario that simultaneously improves agricultural green total factor productivity (GTFP) and farmers’ agricultural income was the main focus of this study. Based on the panel dataset for 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2018, this study calculated the agricultural GTFP using the global Malmquist–Luenberger (GML) index to measure the green development of agriculture. Furthermore, this study investigated the relationship between the agricultural GTFP and agricultural income in an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) framework, together with the key factors affecting agricultural GTFP. The main results show that, first, driven by technical progress, the agricultural GTFP gradually increased across the country, while there existed a certain degree of heterogeneity in the growth of different regions. Second, the relationships between the agricultural GTFP and agricultural income exhibited a significant U-shape for the whole country and the four regions, indicating that a win–win scenario can be achieved between green development and income level. Third, industrialization and urbanization negatively affected agricultural GTFP, capital deepening played a positive role, and due to the mediated effect of capital deepening, the outflow of the agricultural labor force did not cause substantial harm to agricultural GTFP. The findings of our study provide useful policy implications for the promotion and development of agriculture in China.

Transformations of the Cambridge Critique

The debate on capital theory has recently been revived. Reswitching had led to agnosticism regarding the substitution of capital for labour in consequence of changes in the rate or profit. The paradoxes of reswitching and reverse capital deepening now turn out to be rare for theoretical reasons, and this is confirmed empirically, but new results also show that the possibilities of substitution between capital and labour are quite limited; their ratio is given within narrow limits by technology, if the choice of techniques is efficient. This is a new critique of neoclassical theory; it confirms the complementary theories of distribution advanced by the Cambridge economists: the share of profits is influenced by effective demand (Kaldor) and by the level of interest rates as an element of cost (Sraffa). Both theories presuppose the stability of the capital-output ratio. This finding also sheds light on the options of central banks regarding the fixation of interest rates. JEL Code: B51, C67, D57, E11, E13, E44

What remains of the Cambridge critique of capital theory, if reswitching and reverse capital deepening are empirically rare and theoretically unlikely?

The paper summarises the main results of the Cambridge controversy on capital theory and discusses its actual relevance. The paradoxes that had first been regarded as most relevant (reswitching and reverse capital deepening) have turned out to be empirically rare, and this can be explained theoretically, but both neoclassical and anti-neoclassical Wicksell effects are ubiquitous. The number of efficient techniques that turn up on the envelope of the wage curves of a spectrum of techniques can be shown to be quite small both empirically and theoretically, which constitutes a new critique. It has implications for employment policies.

The Dynamic Correlation Between Capital Deepening and Total Factor Productivity in China

The impact of capital deepening on total factor productivity (TFP) is a significant and controversial issue. Based on the calculation of relevant indicators, this study adopts a Bayesian time-varying parameter model, Bayesian quantile regression, and adaptive Bayesian quantile models for in-depth statistical analysis. TFP was found to have a complex non-linear structure, and physical and human capital deepening indicators show a significant upward trend. The deepening of physical capital has a negative impact on TFP, while the deepening of human capital has a positive impact. In the capital deepening structure, the level of TFP has been improved and its structure optimized. Primary human and non-production physical capital deepening has no significant effect on TFP, while secondary human capital deepening has some significant effects on TFP. Tertiary and productive human capital deepening of TFP present two different forms of significant effect: the influence coefficient of the former declines in the increasing quantile and the change is larger, while the latter has a stable negative impact. The results of this study provide insights in terms of the improvement of China’s productivity.

Financial Capital Deepening, Technological Progress and Industrial Structure Upgrading

A necessary condition for realizing macroeconomics is to rationally upgrade the industrial structure. In this process of upgrading, financial capital deepening and technological progress are important ways to promote the upgrading of industrial structure. From an endogenous perspective, this essay explores the internal links between financial capital deepening, technological progress, and industrial structure upgrading. The analysis shows that factors of technological progress have not make a tremendous impact on the upgrading of Chinese industrial structure, nor are they a positive reason for promoting the development of the industry to a higher level. The deepening of financial capital obviously promotes the optimization and upgrading of industrial institutions, which is its main factor.