Legal Implications of China’s Proposal for an Antarctic Specially Managed Area (ASMA) at Kunlun Station at Dome A

Built in 2009, Kunlun Station, China’s third Antarctic research station, is located in the Dome A region. In 2013, during the 36th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM), China proposed the establishment of a new Antarctic Specially Managed Area (ASMA) within Dome A and prepared a draft management plan for it. Yet, several ATCM members questioned China’s motives for designating Dome A as a new ASMA, and, as a result, no consensus could be reached. Surprisingly however, the Chinese ASMA proposal spurred a new impulse to introduce guidelines for the designation of ASMAs. This paper explores the legal implications of China’s proposal for an ASMA at Kunlun Station in Dome A and, in particular, focuses on the new legal developments that followed.

Borehole multi-functional logger for geophysical high-precision monitoring in Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and glaciers

This article presents the main aspects of the design solutions (based on the application of sensors MEMS and cantilevers), testing and applying of the multi-functional borehole logger ANTTIC (Antarctic Thermo-barometer, Inclinometer, Caliper) for geophysical high-precision monitoring (when simultaneous registering of temperature, pressure, axis inclination angle and radii of borehole cross-sections at 12 points), which is designed specifically for ultra-low temperatures and ultra-high pressures, and to determine an elliptical borehole shape and registration anisotropy factor in deep ice boreholes in the central region of Eastern Antarctica, in the areas of dome A at the Kunlun station (China) and/or of lake Vostok at the Vostok station (Russia).

“Logrolling” in Antarctic governance: Limits and opportunities

The Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) is considered a successful example of international governance as it has managed tensions over sovereignty claims, avoided militarisation and dealt with marine resources and environmental protection. Recently, China’s influence and assertiveness in many international institutions have significantly grown. What effect this shift in the international politics will have upon Antarctic governance remains to be seen. However, to further thinking on this issue we explore two current case studies that reveal pressure points within the ATS. First, in the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources, Australia has proposed marine protected areas off East Antarctica, to which China and several other states have objected. Second, in the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings, China has proposed special management arrangements for the area around the “Kunlun” station, to which Australia and several other states have objected. Negotiation theory suggests “logrolling” (i.e. trade of mutual decision-making support across issue areas) can be an effective strategy to avoid diplomatic deadlocks. We therefore consider the merits of a logrolling strategy for the above issues. We find that while a logrolling strategy in the ATS might facilitate short-term diplomatic success, it would carry significant risks, including the weakening of existing norms.

Where is the 1-million-year-old ice at Dome A?

Ice fabric influences the rheology of ice, and hence the age–depth profile at ice core drilling sites. To investigate the age–depth profile to be expected of the ongoing deep ice coring at Kunlun station, Dome A, we use the depth-varying anisotropic fabric suggested by the recent polarimetric measurements around Dome A along with prescribed fabrics ranging from isotropic through girdle to single maximum in a three-dimensional, thermo-mechanically coupled full-Stokes model of a 70 × 70 km2 domain around Kunlun station. This model allows for the simulation of the near basal ice temperature and age, and ice flow around the location of the Chinese deep ice coring site. Ice fabrics and geothermal heat flux strongly affect the vertical advection and basal temperature which consequently control the age profile. Constraining modeled age–depth profiles with dated radar isochrones to 2∕3 ice depth, the surface vertical velocity, and also the spatial variability of a radar isochrones dated to 153.3 ka BP, limits the age of the deep ice at Kunlun to between 649 and 831 ka, a much smaller range than previously inferred. The simple interpretation of the polarimetric radar fabric data that we use produces best fits with a geothermal heat flux of 55 mW m−2. A heat flux of 50 mW m−2 is too low to fit the deeper radar layers, and 60 mW m−2 leads to unrealistic surface velocities. The modeled basal temperature at Kunlun reaches the pressure melting point with a basal melting rate of 2.2–2.7 mm a−1. Using the spatial distribution of basal temperatures and the best fit fabric suggests that within 400 m of Kunlun station, 1-million-year-old ice may be found 200 m above the bed, and that there are large regions where even older ice is well above the bedrock within 5–6 km of the Kunlun station.

Where is the 1-million-year-old ice at Dome A?

Ice fabric influences the rheology of ice, and hence the age/depth profile at ice core drilling sites. We use the depth varying anisotropic fabric suggested by the recent polarimetric measurements around Dome A along with prescribed fabrics ranging from isotropic through girdle to single maximum in a three-dimensional, thermo-mechanically coupled full-Stokes model of a 70 × 70 km2 domain around Kunlun station. This model allows to simulate the near basal ice temperature and age, and ice flow around the location of the Chinese deep ice coring site. Ice fabrics and geothermal heat flux strongly affect the vertical advection and basal temperature which in consequence controls the age profile. Constraining modeled age-depth profiles with dated radar isochrones to 2/3 ice depth, the surface vertical velocity, and also the spatial variability of a radar isochrones dated to 153.3 kyr BP, limits the age of the deep ice at Kunlun to 649–831 kyr, a much smaller range than inferred previously. The simple interpretation of the polarmetric radar fabric data that we use produces best fits with a geothermal heat flux of 55 mWm−2. A heat flux of 50 mWm−2 is too low to fit the deeper radar layers, and a heat flux of 60 mWm−2 leads to unrealistic surface velocities. The modeled basal temperature at Kunlun reaches the pressure melting point with a basal melting rate of 2.2–2.7 mm yr−1. Using the spatial distribution of basal temperatures and the best fit fabric suggests that within 400 m of Kunlun station, 1 million-year old ice may be found 200 m above the bed, and there are large regions where even older ice is well above the bedrock within 1–2 km of the Kunlun station.

How old is the ice beneath Dome A, Antarctica?

Chinese scientists will start to drill a deep ice core at Kunlun station near Dome A in the near future. Recent work has predicted that Dome A is a location where ice older than 1 million years can be found. We model flow, temperature and the age of the ice by applying a three-dimensional, thermomechanically coupled full-Stokes model to a 70 × 70 km2 domain around Kunlun station, using isotropic non-linear rheology and different prescribed anisotropic ice fabrics that vary the evolution from isotropic to single maximum at 1/3 or 2/3 depths. The variation in fabric is about as important as the uncertainties in geothermal heat flux in determining the vertical advection which in consequence controls both the basal temperature and the age profile. We find strongly variable basal ages across the domain since the ice varies greatly in thickness, and any basal melting effectively removes very old ice in the deepest parts of the subglacial valleys. Comparison with dated radar isochrones in the upper one third of the ice sheet cannot sufficiently constrain the age of the deeper ice, with uncertainties as large as 500 000 years in the basal age. We also assess basal age and thermal state sensitivities to geothermal heat flux and surface conditions. Despite expectations of modest changes in surface height over a glacial cycle at Dome A, even small variations in the evolution of surface conditions cause large variation in basal conditions, which is consistent with basal accretion features seen in radar surveys.

How old is the ice beneath Dome A, Antarctica?

Chinese scientists will start to drill a deep ice core at Kunlun station near Dome A in the near future. Recent work has predicted that Dome A is a location where ice older than 1 million years can be found. We model flow, temperature and the age of the ice by applying a three-dimensional, thermo-mechanically coupled full-Stokes model to a 70 km × 70 km domain around Kunlun station, using isotropic non-linear rheology and different prescribed anisotropic ice fabrics that vary the evolution from isotropic to single maximum at 1/3 or 2/3 depths. The variation in fabric is about as important as the uncertainties in geothermal heat flux in determining the vertical advection which in consequence controls both the basal temperature and the age profile. We find strongly variable basal ages across the domain since the ice varies greatly in thickness and any basal melting effectively removes very old ice in the deepest parts of the subglacial valleys. Comparison with dated radar isochrones in the upper one third of the ice sheet cannot sufficiently constrain the age of the deeper ice, with uncertainties as large as 500 000 yr in the basal age. We also assess basal age and thermal state sensitivities to geothermal heat flux and surface conditions. Despite expectations of modest changes in surface height over a glacial cycle at Dome A, even small variations in the evolution of surface conditions cause large variation in basal conditions which is consistent with basal accretion features seen in radar surveys.