Evaluating user susceptibility to phishing attacks

Purpose Phishing is a well-known cybersecurity attack that has rapidly increased in recent years. It poses risks to businesses, government agencies and all users due to sensitive data breaches and subsequent financial losses. To study the user side, this paper aims to conduct a literature review and user study. Design/methodology/approach To investigate phishing attacks, the authors provide a detailed overview of previous research on phishing techniques by conducting a systematic literature review of n = 367 peer-reviewed academic papers published in ACM Digital Library. Also, the authors report on an evaluation of a high school community. The authors engaged 57 high school students and faculty members (12 high school students, 45 staff members) as participants in research using signal detection theory (SDT). Findings Through the literature review which goes back to as early as 2004, the authors found that only 13.9% of papers focused on user studies. In the user study, through scenario-based analysis, participants were tasked with distinguishing phishing e-mails from authentic e-mails. The results revealed an overconfidence bias in self-detection from the participants, regardless of their technical background. Originality/value The authors conducted a literature review with a focus on user study which is a first in this field as far the authors know. Additionally, the authors conducted a detailed user study with high school students and faculty using SDT which is also an understudied area and population.

Overconfidence bias and stock market volatility in Ghana: testing the rationality of investors in the Covid-19 era

PurposeThe paper tests the overconfidence bias and volatility on the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) during the pre-Covid-19 pandemic and Covid-19 pandemic period.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs pairwise Granger causality to test the presence of overconfidence bias on the Ghana stock market as well as GARCH (1,1) and GJR-GARCH (1, 1) models to understand whether overconfidence bias contributed to volatility during pre-Covid-19 pandemic and Covid-19 pandemic period. The pre-Covid-19 pandemic period spans from January, 2019 to December, 2019, and Covid-19 pandemic period spans from January, 2020 to December, 2020.FindingsThe paper finds a unidirectional Granger causality running from weekly market returns to weekly trading volume during the Covid-19 pandemic period. These results indicate the presence of overconfidence bias on the Ghana stock market during the Covid-19 pandemic period. Finally, the conditional variance estimation results showed that excessive trading of overconfident market players significantly contributes to the weekly volatility observed during the Covid-19 pandemic period.Research limitations/implicationsThe empirical findings demonstrate that market participants on the GSE exhibit conditional irrationality in their investment decisions during the Covid-19 pandemic period. This implies investors overreact to private information and underreact to available public information and as a result become overconfident in their investment decisions.Practical implicationsFindings from this paper show that there is evidence of overconfidence bias among market players on the GSE. Therefore, investors, financial advisors and other market players should be educated on overconfidence bias and its negative effect on their investment decisions so as to minimize it, especially during the pandemic period.Originality/valueThis study is a maiden one that underscores investors’ overconfidence bias in the wake of a pandemic in the Ghanaian stock market. It is a precursor to the overconfidence bias discourse and encourages the testing of other behavioral biases aside what is understudied during the Covid-19 pandemic period in Ghana.

Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management: An Overview

Behavioral science has witnessed an explosion in the number of biases identified by behavioral scientists, to more than 200 at present. This article identifies the 10 most important behavioral biases for project management. First, we argue it is a mistake to equate behavioral bias with cognitive bias, as is common. Cognitive bias is half the story; political bias the other half. Second, we list the top 10 behavioral biases in project management: (1) strategic misrepresentation, (2) optimism bias, (3) uniqueness bias, (4) the planning fallacy, (5) overconfidence bias, (6) hindsight bias, (7) availability bias, (8) the base rate fallacy, (9) anchoring, and (10) escalation of commitment. Each bias is defined, and its impacts on project management are explained, with examples. Third, base rate neglect is identified as a primary reason that projects underperform. This is supported by presentation of the most comprehensive set of base rates that exist in project management scholarship, from 2,062 projects. Finally, recent findings of power law outcomes in project performance are identified as a possible first stage in discovering a general theory of project management, with more fundamental and more scientific explanations of project outcomes than found in conventional theory.

Pengaruh Bias Perilaku Terhadap Pengambilan Keputusan Investasi Saham Para Investor Pemula Di Kota Sidoarjo

Investor saham di Kota Sidoarjo terus bertambah meskipun kondisi perekonomian masyarakat sedang terdampak hebat oleh COVID-19. Peningkatan jumlah investor di Sidoarjo ini menunjukkan bahwa terdapat banyak investor pemula yang bergabung ke dunia investasi. Investor pemula memiliki pengalaman serta pengetahuan mengenai pasar modal yang terbatas sehingga rentan terkena bias perilaku yang dapat menyebabkan mereka bertindak irasional dan mengakibatkan hasil investasi yang buruk. Tujuan penelitian ini yaitu mengetahui pengaruh bias perilaku yang kerap muncul pada investor diantaranya overconfidence bias, herding bias, dan representative bias terhadap keputusan investasi. Sampel dalam penelitian ini menggunakan teknik simple random sampling dan berjumlah 85 responden yang merupakan anggota dari Komunitas Investor Saham Pemula Region Sidoarjo. Data primer yang digunakan dalam penelitian diperoleh melalui kuesioner yang kemudian dianalisis dengan SmartPLS 3.0. Penelitian ini menemukan pengaruh positif pada overconfidence bias, herding bias, dan representative bias terhadap keputusan investasi para investor pemula di Kota Sidoarjo.

A qualitative inquiry into the capital structure decisions of overconfident finance managers of family-owned businesses in India

Purpose The purpose of this study is to understand the impact of the overconfidence of finance managers on the capital structure decisions of family-run businesses in the Indian scenario. Furthermore, this study aims to demonstrate that measurable managerial characteristics explain the capital structure decisions of managers. Design/methodology/approach The qualitative approach to research, which aims at understanding a given phenomenon among the experts, is followed. Semi-structured interviews are conducted with 21 overconfident finance managers of family-owned businesses. Content analysis is used to analyse the collected data regarding capital structure decisions into several themes to fully explore the issue in the Indian scenario. Findings In terms of preference for cash or debt, most of the responding overconfident finance managers of family-run businesses agreed that cash is the preferred source of financing over debt financing. This is due to the biased behaviour of overconfident managers, who consider lower availability of debt as a reason to prefer cash over debt financing. The present study reports that overconfident finance managers prefer short- to long-term debt financing. These managers raise certain practical issues, such as stringent debt terms and inflexible repayment schedules, that arise in relation to the long-term debt market. The study also finds that overconfident finance managers do not fully use tax savings. Respondents reported a lack of access to the debt market and a lack of expertise in capital structure decisions as factors in these capital structure decisions. In addition, the study explores various factors, such as the role of government, the Central Bank of India and industry practices, in relation to capital structure decisions. The study finds that the capital structure decisions of these overconfident finance managers are suboptimal because of the presence of overconfidence bias. Research limitations/implications This study gathers information from respondents who are finance managers, not top-level managers, of family businesses; the decision not to interview the higher-ranking managers is a potential limitation of the present study. Another limitation is the small number of respondents in a specific firm size. Because of these factors, the generalisability of the findings of this study will obviously be restricted. Practical implications The present study has several practical implications. The first is the recognition of overconfidence bias as it affects the decision-making of finance managers. Executives, especially finance executives, will benefit from the recognition of overconfidence bias and will understand how the presence of such bias impacts corporate decision-making. Managers will understand that bias leads to faulty decision-making. The study will provide indirect feedback to policymakers and regulators in terms of understanding the role of macroeconomic variables in economic decisions. The qualitative approach followed in the present study may enhance the understanding of capital structure decisions from a psychological perspective. The majority of studies in the review of literature adopt quantitative approaches; so the qualitative approach adopted here represents a methodological innovation, and it may provide a deeper understanding of the matter. Originality/value The existing literature includes quantitative research aimed at understanding the impact of CEO overconfidence on various corporate policies such as capital budgeting, mergers and acquisitions, dividend policy and capital structure decisions. Quantitative research into the presence of overconfidence bias among executives and its impact on corporate policies returns mixed results. To fulfil the need for studies of overconfidence bias among executives with practical implications, this study explores the presence of overconfidence bias among finance managers in family-run businesses and investigates the impact of overconfidence on capital structure decisions.

The Behavioural Aspects of Financial Literacy

In this paper, we investigate the contribution of behavioural characteristics to the financial literacy of UAE residents after controlling for demographic factors. Specifically, we test the relationship between financial literacy and behavioural biases such as representativeness, self-serving, overconfidence, loss aversion, and hindsight bias. Using data collected through survey questionnaires, we apply the methodology developed by the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to compute financial literacy scores. Our overall results show that all behavioural biases except for overconfidence bias are positively related to financial literacy. Furthermore, some biases exhibit a stronger quantitative relationship with financial literacy than others. For example, hindsight bias displays the strongest link to financial literacy, followed by self-serving bias. The weakest but still statistically significant effect is loss aversion bias. Although biases, in general, have negative connotations, behavioural biases appear to be related to higher levels of financial literacy.

Impact of overconfidence bias in stock trading approach: a study of high net worth individual (HNI) stock investors in India

PurposeThe purpose of the study is to check whether Indian high net worth individual (HNI) investors are suffering from overconfidence bias in personal life and in-stock investment approach. The study is to benchmark an ideal behaviour that an investor should exhibit under the overconfidence bias.Design/methodology/approachBoth qualitative and quantitative methods were used to study the Indian HNI investors with overconfidence bias. As a first step, an exploratory study was conducted to identify the variables to define overconfidence bias. An extensive literature review along with in-depth interviews was conducted amongst investors, fund managers and the subject experts to check the content validity of the variables. The survey instrument was designed based on the objective of the study and theoretical framework. Both descriptive and inferential statistical tools such as the Z proportion test, logistic regression and structural equation model were applied to test the hypotheses.FindingsIt was found that there is a moderate impact of overconfidence bias amongst the investors both in normal life and whilst making investments in stock. This study found the influence of overconfidence bias in stock investment with respect to forecasting of the stock price movements, overtrading, overanalysis and overreaction.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper will help in understanding the Indian HNI investors’ behaviour under the impact of overconfidence bias. There is an empirical study to understand the implication of overconfidence bias on stock investors specifically for the HNI investors.Practical implicationsThis study gives an insight into the fund managers to understand the Indian HNI investment behaviour. It is also helpful for HNI investors to understand and correct their behavioural biases related to overconfidence.Social implicationsThis paper will guide investors to understand the symptoms and repercussions of overconfidence bias in stock investment. They can also realize the subtle impact of overconfidence bias in personal and professional life, thus preventing them from making losses.Originality/valueThis work is the extension of the works of Terrace Odean on behavioural finance in the Indian Stock Investors' context. The concept of overconfidence bias and its implications of finance were developed by Kahneman and Tversky, and later by other behavioural finance researchers such as Malmendier, Hirshleifer, DeBondt, Odean, Barber, Shefrin and others. This paper studies stock investing behaviour with specific reference to Indian HNI investors.

Behavioral Cost of Managerial Decisions Under Risk Perception and Culture: A Comparative Study Between the United States and Pakistan

The study is an attempt to find the reasons for biased behavior of overconfident managers while making financial decisions on behalf of shareholders. The study further seeks the ways to resolve the problems faced by firms due to such biased decision-making. For this purpose, quantitative research method is used to uncover the new information for better understanding of study. The comparative analysis has been done through survey-based data collected from executives/managers of firms listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange and New York Stock Exchange. The results indicate that overconfidence bias plays a significant role in managerial decisions for Pakistan compared with U.S. managers. This study applied mediation and moderation tests and found the significant mediating role of risk perception for overconfidence bias and manager decisions. The study further checked moderating role of cultural value, that is, the role of uncertainty avoidance between overconfidence bias of managers and risk perception. Hence, the role of cognitive biases and bounded rationality is undeniable for managerial decision-making and ultimate behavioral cost that firms have to pay due to undesired outcomes of situations. Consequently, this study has reached to extract the hidden facts and solutions to the observed issues for developed and emerging economy’s firms through cultural differences.

Are High School Students Accurate in Predicting Their AP Exam Scores?

Are high school students accurate in predicting test performance? If so, do their predictions explain variation in performance, even after accounting for other factors? We examined these questions in two testing contexts (low-stakes and high-stakes) among students enrolled in a high school advanced placement (AP) statistics class. We found that even two months before taking the exam, students were moderately accurate in predicting their scores on the actual AP exam (κweighted = .62). When the same variables were entered into models predicting inaccuracy and overconfidence bias, results did not provide evidence that age, gender, parental education, number of math classes previously taken, or course engagement accounted for variation in accuracy. Overconfidence bias was associated with the students’ school. Results indicated that students’ predictions of performance were positively associated with performance in both low- and high-stakes testing contexts. The findings shed light on ways to leverage students’ self-assessment for learning.