Zero-truncated Poisson-Lindley distribution

In order to find a counting distribution that can handle the condition when the data has no zero-count. Distribution named Zero-truncated Poisson-Lindley distribution is developed. It can handle the condition when the data has no zero-count both in over-dispersion and under-dispersion. In this paper, characteristics of Zero-truncated Poisson-Lindley distribution are obtained and estimate distribution parameters using the maximum likelihood method. Then, the application of the model to real data is given.

Monte Carlo Methods for Insurance Risk Computation

In this paper we consider the problem of computing tail probabilities of the distribution of a random sum of positive random variables. We assume that the individual claim variables follow a reproducible natural exponential family (NEF) distribution, and that the random number has a NEF counting distribution with a cubic variance function. This specific modeling is supported by data of the aggregated claim distribution of an insurance company. Large tail probabilities are important as they reflect the risk of large losses, however, analytic or numerical expressions are not available. We propose several simulation algorithms which are based on an asymptotic analysis of the distribution of the counting variable and on the reproducibility property of the claim distribution. The aggregated sum is simulated efficiently by importance sampling using an exponential change of measure. We conclude by numerical experiments of these algorithms, based on real car insurance claim data.

ON THE EVALUATION OF MULTIVARIATE COMPOUND DISTRIBUTIONS WITH CONTINUOUS SEVERITY DISTRIBUTIONS AND SARMANOV'S COUNTING DISTRIBUTION

In this paper, we present closed-type formulas for some multivariate compound distributions with multivariate Sarmanov counting distribution and independent Erlang distributed claim sizes. Further on, we also consider a type-II Pareto dependency between the claim sizes of a certain type. The resulting densities rely on the special hypergeometric function, which has the advantage of being implemented in the usual software. We numerically illustrate the applicability and efficiency of such formulas by evaluating a bivariate cumulative distribution function, which is also compared with the similar function obtained by the classical recursion-discretization approach.