Changes in the Eastward Movement Speed of the Madden–Julian Oscillation with Fluctuation in the Walker Circulation

The eastward movement of a convectively active region is a distinguishing characteristic of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). However, knowledge about the mechanisms that determine the eastward movement speed remains limited. This study investigates how the background environment modulates the speed of the boreal winter MJO and describes an intrinsic relationship between the MJO and background atmospheric circulation. We calculated the speed of the MJO events from the daily tracking of the locations of the minimum values of the outgoing longwave radiation anomaly in the time–longitude space. These speeds were then used to analyze systematic differences in the sea surface temperature (SST) distribution associated with the MJO speed. The analysis revealed a deceleration of the MJO under low-frequency (> 90 days) SST distributions that increased toward the western Pacific from both the Indian Ocean and the eastern Pacific. In contrast, the dependency on SST variability in intraseasonal frequencies (20–90 days) was small. Subsequently, the relationship between the MJO speed and background circulation, which is largely determined by the lower boundary condition set by the low-frequency SST distribution, was analyzed. The analysis counterintuitively revealed that the MJO tends to decelerate when the large-scale zonal circulation with low-level westerlies and upper-level easterlies from the Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continents is strong. The results suggest a novel view that the MJO is an integral component of the Walker circulation and that its eastward movement is modulated by the state of the large-scale flow of the Walker circulation.

Water vapor anomaly over the tropical western Pacific in El Niño winters from radiosonde and satellite observations

Using radiosonde observations at five stations in the tropical western Pacific and reanalysis data for 15 years from 2005 to 2019, we report an extremely negative anomaly in atmospheric water vapor during the super El Niño winter of 2015/16, and compare the anomaly with that in the other three El Niño winters. Strong specific humidity anomaly is concentrated below 8 km of the troposphere with a peak at 2.5–3.5 km, and column integrated water vapor mass anomaly over the five radiosonde sites has a large negative correlation coefficient of −0.63 with oceanic Niño3.4 index, but with a lag of about 2–3 months. In general, the tropical circulation anomaly in the El Niño winter is characterized by divergence (convergence) in the lower troposphere over the tropical western (eastern) Pacific, thus the water vapor decreases over the tropical western Pacific as upward motion is suppressed. The variability of the Hadley circulation is quite small and has little influence on the observed water vapor anomaly. The anomaly of the Walker circulation makes a considerable contribution to the total anomaly in all the four El Niño winters, especially in the 2006/07 and 2015/16 eastern-Pacific (EP) El Niño events. The monsoon circulation shows a remarkable change from one to the other event, and its anomaly is large in the 2009/10 and 2018/19 central-Pacific (CP) El Niño winters and small in the two EP El Niño winters. The observed water vapor anomaly is caused mainly by the Walker circulation anomaly in the supper EP event of 2015/16 but by the monsoon circulation anomaly in the strong CP event of 2009/10. Owing to the anomalous decrease in upward transport of water vapor during the El Niño winter, less cloud amount and more outgoing longwave radiation over the five stations are clearly presented in satellite observation.

How Extreme Apparitions of the Volcanic and Anthropogenic South East Asian Aerosol Plume Trigger and Sustain El Niño events using data from the Last Millennium Ensemble, Large Ensemble, MERRA-2 Reanalysis, four Satellites and the Global Volcanism P

<p>Volcanic aerosols over south east Asia have always been the trigger and sustaining cause of ENSO events. In recent decades this natural plume has been augmented by the anthropogenic plume which has intensified ENSO events especially in SON. Data from the Last Millennium Ensemble (13,872 months), and Large Ensemble (3,012 months) demonstrate this connection with three ENSO indices and aerosol data derived from the same datasets correlating at 1.00 (LME), 0.97 and 0.99 magnitude (segmented and averaged). ENSO events are the dominant mode of variability in the global climate responsible for Australian, Indian and Indonesian droughts, American floods and increased global temperatures. Understanding the mechanism which enables aerosols over SE Asia and only over SE Asia to create ENSO events is crucial to understanding the global climate. I show that the South East Asian aerosol Plume causes ENSO events by: reflecting/absorbing solar radiation which warms the upper troposphere; and reducing surface radiation which cools the surface under the plume. This inversion reduces convection in the region thereby suppressing the Walker Circulation and the Trade Winds which causes the SST to rise in the central Pacific Ocean and creates convection there. This further weakens/reverses the Walker Circulation driving the climate into an ENSO state which is maintained until the aerosols dissipate and the climate system relaxes into a non-ENSO state. Measured aerosol data from four NASA satellites, estimates of volcanic tephra from the Global Volcanism Program (GVP) for over 100 years and the NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset all confirm this analysis.</p>

Simple Analytic Solutions for a Convectively Driven Walker Circulation and Their Relevance to Observations

We present a linear equation for the Walker circulation streamfunction and find its analytic solutions given specified convective heating. In a linear Boussinesq fluid with Rayleigh damping and Newtonian cooling, the streamfunction obeys a Poisson’s equation, forced by gradients in the meridionally averaged diabatic heating and Coriolis force. For an idealized convective heating distribution, analytic solutions for the streamfunction can be found through an analogy with electrostatics. We use these solutions to study the response of the Walker circulation strength (mass transport) to changes in the vertical and zonal scales of convective heating. Robust responses are obtained that depend on how the total convective heating of the atmosphere responds to changing scale. If the total heating remains unchanged, increasing the zonal scale or the vertical scale always leads to a weaker circulation. Conversely, if the total heating grows in proportion to the spatial scale, the circulation becomes stronger with increasing scale. These conclusions are shown to be consistent with a three-dimensional numerical model. Moreover, they are useful in describing the observed seasonal and interannual (ENSO) variability of the Indo-Pacific Walker circulation. On both time scales, the overturning becomes weaker with increasing zonal scale of the convective region, reminiscent of our solutions where we do not vary the total convective heating. Reanalysis data also indicate that the zonal circulation is quite strongly damped, thus yielding a result that the circulation strength is directly proportional to the warm-pool spatial-mean precipitation.

Walker circulation response to extratropical radiative forcing

Walker circulation variability and associated zonal shifts in the heating of the tropical atmosphere have far-reaching global impacts well into high latitudes. Yet the reversed high latitude–to–Walker circulation teleconnection is not fully understood. Here, we reveal the dynamical pathways of this teleconnection across different components of the climate system using a hierarchy of climate model simulations. In the fully coupled system with ocean circulation adjustments, the Walker circulation strengthens in response to extratropical radiative cooling of either hemisphere, associated with the upwelling of colder subsurface water in the eastern equatorial Pacific. By contrast, in the absence of ocean circulation adjustments, the Walker circulation response is sensitive to the forcing hemisphere, due to the blocking effect of the northward-displaced climatological intertropical convergence zone and shortwave cloud radiative effects. Our study implies that energy biases in the extratropics can cause pronounced changes of tropical climate patterns.