Changes in the Eastward Movement Speed of the Madden–Julian Oscillation with Fluctuation in the Walker Circulation

The eastward movement of a convectively active region is a distinguishing characteristic of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). However, knowledge about the mechanisms that determine the eastward movement speed remains limited. This study investigates how the background environment modulates the speed of the boreal winter MJO and describes an intrinsic relationship between the MJO and background atmospheric circulation. We calculated the speed of the MJO events from the daily tracking of the locations of the minimum values of the outgoing longwave radiation anomaly in the time–longitude space. These speeds were then used to analyze systematic differences in the sea surface temperature (SST) distribution associated with the MJO speed. The analysis revealed a deceleration of the MJO under low-frequency (> 90 days) SST distributions that increased toward the western Pacific from both the Indian Ocean and the eastern Pacific. In contrast, the dependency on SST variability in intraseasonal frequencies (20–90 days) was small. Subsequently, the relationship between the MJO speed and background circulation, which is largely determined by the lower boundary condition set by the low-frequency SST distribution, was analyzed. The analysis counterintuitively revealed that the MJO tends to decelerate when the large-scale zonal circulation with low-level westerlies and upper-level easterlies from the Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continents is strong. The results suggest a novel view that the MJO is an integral component of the Walker circulation and that its eastward movement is modulated by the state of the large-scale flow of the Walker circulation.

Processes influencing lower stratospheric water vapour in monsoon anticyclones: insights from Lagrangian modelling

We investigate the influence of different chemical and physical processes on the water vapour distribution in the lower stratosphere (LS), in particular in the Asian and North American monsoon anticyclones (AMA and NAMA, respectively). Specifically, we use the chemistry transport model CLaMS to analyse the effects of large-scale temperatures, methane oxidation, ice microphysics, and small-scale atmospheric mixing processes in different model experiments. All these processes hydrate the LS and, particularly, the AMA. While ice microphysics has the largest global moistening impact, it is small-scale mixing which dominates the specific signature in the AMA in the model experiments. In particular, the small-scale mixing parameterization strongly contributes to the water vapour transport to this region and improves the simulation of the intra-seasonal variability, resulting in a better agreement with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations. Although none of our experiments reproduces the spatial pattern of the NAMA as seen in MLS observations, they all exhibit a realistic annual cycle and intra-seasonal variability, which are mainly controlled by large-scale temperatures. We further analyse the sensitivity of these results to the domain-filling trajectory set-up, here-called Lagrangian trajectory filling (LTF). Compared with MLS observations and with a multiyear reference simulation using the full-blown chemistry transport model version of CLaMS, we find that the LTF schemes result in a drier global LS and in a weaker water vapour signal over the monsoon regions, which is likely related to the specification of the lower boundary condition. Overall, our results emphasize the importance of subgrid-scale mixing and multiple transport pathways from the troposphere in representing water vapour in the AMA.

Estimating the Magnetic Structure of an Erupting CME Flux Rope From AR12158 Using Data-Driven Modeling

We investigate here the magnetic properties of a large-scale magnetic flux rope related to a coronal mass ejection (CME) that erupted from the Sun on September 12, 2014 and produced a well-defined flux rope in interplanetary space on September 14–15, 2014. We apply a fully data-driven and time-dependent magnetofrictional method (TMFM) using Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) magnetograms as the lower boundary condition. The simulation self-consistently produces a coherent flux rope and its ejection from the simulation domain. This paper describes the identification of the flux rope from the simulation data and defining its key parameters (e.g., twist and magnetic flux). We define the axial magnetic flux of the flux rope and the magnetic field time series from at the apex and at different distances from the apex of the flux rope. Our analysis shows that TMFM yields axial magnetic flux values that are in agreement with several observational proxies. The extracted magnetic field time series do not match well with in-situ components in direct comparison presumably due to interplanetary evolution and northward propagation of the CME. The study emphasizes also that magnetic field time-series are strongly dependent on how the flux rope is intercepted which presents a challenge for space weather forecasting.

Detailing an Improved Heat Transfer Model for Pavements

Temperature profiles are a fundamental input into mechanistic-empirical pavement analysis and design, and the enhanced integrated climatic model (EICM) is the state-of-the-practice for calculating those profiles. The EICM has also been used in other applications, such as analysis to evaluate the effects of climate change on pavements and to estimate the effects of pavements on urban heat islands. The calculations in the EICM for pavement temperatures can be viewed as having two primary components that together act as a system: the thermal model describing conductance of temperatures throughout the pavement, and the boundary conditions that include the convective terms at the pavement surface, an energy balance model to predict the solar radiation at the surface of the pavement and a specified lower boundary condition (generally constant temperature at defined depth). As is shown in this paper, the current EICM models overpredict temperatures during hot times and in no-wind conditions, while also underpredicting (albeit to a lesser magnitude) during cold conditions. This result implies that the increases in pavement temperatures predicted to occur with climate change are likewise overestimated. Conversely, because the convection coefficient is incorrect, the predicted amount of energy contributing to urban heat islands will also not be correctly predicted using the current EICM models. Although improvements to the solar model are noted, this paper focuses on improvements to the thermal model and convective boundary condition using modern heat transfer principles and data from the Long-Term Pavement Performance database.

A Unifying Perspective on Transfer Function Solutions to the Unsteady Ekman Problem

The unsteady Ekman problem involves finding the response of the near-surface currents to wind stress forcing under linear dynamics. Its solution can be conveniently framed in the frequency domain in terms of a quantity that is known as the transfer function, the Fourier transform of the impulse response function. In this paper, a theoretical investigation of a fairly general transfer function form is undertaken with the goal of paving the way for future observational studies. Building on earlier work, we consider in detail the transfer function arising from a linearly-varying profile of the vertical eddy viscosity, subject to a no-slip lower boundary condition at a finite depth. The horizontal momentum equations, rendered linear by the assumption of horizontally uniform motion, are shown to transform to a modified Bessel’s equation for the transfer function. Two self-similarities, or rescalings that each effectively eliminate one independent variable, are identified, enabling the dependence of the transfer function on its parameters to be more readily assessed. A systematic investigation of asymptotic behaviors of the transfer function is then undertaken, yielding expressions appropriate for eighteen different regimes, and unifying the results from numerous earlier studies. A solution to a numerical overflow problem that arises in the computation of the transfer function is also found. All numerical code associated with this paper is distributed freely for use by the community.

The Influence of Turbulence Memory on Idealized Tornado Simulations

Surface friction contributes to tornado formation and maintenance by enhancing the convergence of angular momentum. The traditional lower boundary condition in atmospheric models typically assumes an instant equilibrium between the unresolved stress and the resolved shear. This assumption ignores the physics that turbulent motions are generated and dissipated at finite rates—in effect, turbulence has a memory through its lifetime. In this work, a modified lower boundary condition is proposed to account for the effect of turbulence memory. Specifically, when an air parcel moves along a curved trajectory, a normal surface-shear-stress component arises owing to turbulence memory. In the accompanying large-eddy simulation (LES) of idealized tornadoes, the normal surface-shear-stress component is a source of additional dynamic instability, which provides an extra pathway for the development of turbulent motions. The influence of turbulence memory on the intensity of quasi-steady-state tornadoes remains negligible as long as assumptions employed by the modified lower boundary condition hold over a relatively large fraction of the flow region of interest. However, tornadoes in a transient state may be especially sensitive to turbulence memory.Significance StatementFriction between the wind and the ground can influence atmospheric phenomena in important ways. For example, surface friction can be a significant source of rotation in some thunderstorms, and it can also help to intensify rotation when rotation is already present. Unfortunately, the representation of friction’s effects in atmospheric simulations is especially error-prone in phenomena characterized by rapid temporal evolution or strong spatial variations. Our work explores a new framework for representing friction to include the effect of the so-called turbulence memory. The approach is tested in idealized tornado simulations, but it may be applied to a wide range of atmospheric vortices.

A Unifying Perspective on Transfer Function Solutions to the Unsteady Ekman Problem

The unsteady Ekman problem involves finding the response of the near-surface currents to wind stress forcing under linearized dynamics. Its solution can be conveniently framed in the frequency domain in terms of a quantity that is known as the transfer function, the Fourier transform of the impulse response function. In this paper, a theoretical investigation of a fairly general transfer function form is undertaken with the goal of paving the way for future observational studies. Building on earlier work, we consider in detail the transfer function arising from a linearly-varying profile of the vertical eddy viscosity, subject to a no-slip lower boundary condition at a finite depth. The linearized horizontal momentum equations are shown to transform to a modified Bessel’s equation for the transfer function. Two self-similarities, or rescalings that each effectively eliminate one independent variable, are identified, enabling the dependence of the transfer function on its parameters to be more readily assessed. A systematic investigation of asymptotic behaviors of the transfer function is then undertaken, yielding expressions appropriate for eighteen different regimes, and unifying the results from numerous earlier studies. A solution to a numerical overflow problem that arises in the computation of the transfer function is also found. All numerical code associated with this paper is distributed freely for use by the community.

Magnetohydrostatic modeling of AR11768 based on a SUNRISE/IMaX vector magnetogram

Context. High-resolution magnetic field measurements are routinely only done in the solar photosphere. Higher layers, such as the chromosphere and corona, can be modeled by extrapolating these photospheric magnetic field vectors upward. In the solar corona, plasma forces can be neglected and the Lorentz force vanishes. This is not the case in the upper photosphere and chromosphere where magnetic and nonmagnetic forces are equally important. One way to deal with this problem is to compute the plasma and magnetic field self-consistently, in lowest order with a magnetohydrostatic (MHS) model. The non-force-free layer is rather thin and MHS models require high-resolution photospheric magnetic field measurements as the lower boundary condition. Aims. We aim to derive the magnetic field, plasma pressure, and density of AR11768 by applying the newly developed extrapolation technique to the SUNRISE/IMaX data embedded in SDO/HMI magnetogram. Methods. We used an optimization method for the MHS modeling. The initial conditions consist of a nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) and a gravity-stratified atmosphere. During the optimization procedure, the magnetic field, plasma pressure, and density are computed self-consistently. Results. In the non-force-free layer, which is spatially resolved by the new code, Lorentz forces are effectively balanced by the gas pressure gradient force and gravity force. The pressure and density are depleted in strong field regions, which is consistent with observations. Denser plasma, however, is also observed at some parts of the active region edges. In the chromosphere, the fibril-like plasma structures trace the magnetic field nicely. Bright points in SUNRISE/SuFI 3000 Å images are often accompanied by the plasma pressure and electric current concentrations. In addition, the average of angle between MHS field lines and the selected chromospheric fibrils is 11.8°, which is smaller than those computed from the NLFFF model (15.7°) and linear MHS model (20.9°). This indicates that the MHS solution provides a better representation of the magnetic field in the chromosphere.

Modelling Hydrological Performance of a Bauxite Residue Profile for Deposition Management of a Storage Facility

Accurate scheduling of bauxite residue (red mud) deposition time is required in order to prevent the risk of storage facility failure. This study was conducted to precisely determine the hydraulic parameters of bauxite residue and investigate the capability of HYDRUS to accurately estimate the residue moisture profile and the timing for its deposition. The hydraulic properties of the bauxite residue profile were determined by solving an inverse problem. A one-dimensional hydrological model (HYDRUS-1D) was validated using a 300 mm long column filled with bauxite residue and exposed to a dynamic lower boundary condition. After numerical validation, the model was used to simulate the moisture profile of bauxite residue under the climatic conditions of an alumina refinery site in Queensland, Australia, as well as other scenarios (i.e., high (300 mm) and small (1.7 mm) rainfall events of the site). This study showed that the HYDRUS model can be used as a predictive tool to precisely estimate the moisture profile of the bauxite residue and that the timing for the re-deposition of the bauxite residue can be estimated by understanding the moisture profile and desired shear strength of the residue. This study revealed that the examined bauxite residue approaches field capacity (water potential −10 kPa) after three days from a low rainfall event (<1.7 mm) and after eight days from an intense rainfall event (300 mm) at the time of disposal. This suggests that the bauxite residue can be deposited every four days after low rainfall events (as low as 1.7 mm) and every nine days after high rainfall events (as high as 300 mm) at the time of deposition, if bauxite residue experiences an initial drying period following deposition.