PERILAKU PETANI PADI ORGANIK TERHADAP RISIKO DI KECAMATAN SUSUKAN KABUPATEN SEMARANG

Desa ketapang terletak di Kecamatan Susukan Kabupaten Semarang. Petani di desa ini sebagian besar tergabung dalam Paguyuban Petani Al- Barokah yang menerapkan sistem pertanian padi organik. Usahatani padi organik di desa Ketapang, Kabupaten Semarang telah memberikan kesadaran akan pentingnyapertanian organik. Situasi ketadakpastian selalu terjadi dalam bidang pertanian, sehingga berakibat pada hasil yang tidak pasti pula. Fluktuasi hasil pertanian (produksi) dan fluktuasi harga yang menjadi sumber ketidakpastian di sektor pertanian. (Ningsih, 2013). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perilakupetani terhadap risiko usahatani padi organik dan mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi perilaku petani terhadap risiko di Kecamatan Susukan Kabupaten Semarang. Jumlah responden yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini 76 petani padi organik. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode survei. Pemilihan lokasi penelitian secara purposive sampling dan pengambilan sampel dilakukan melalui simple random sampling. Metode analisis perilaku petani terhadap risiko menggunakan pendekatan fungsi produksi cobb Doughlas kemudian dianalisis dengan regresi linear berganda dan untuk mengukur perilaku petani terhadap risiko menggunakan metode Moscardy dan de Janvry. Analisis linear berganda digunakan untuk mengatahui faktor –faktor yang mempengaruhi perilaku petani terhadap risiko. Penelitian ini penting dilakukan agar petani melakukan pertimbangan dalam pengelolaan dan perencanan usahatani padi organik dimasa datang serta bagi instansi sebagai masukan dalam rangka kebijakan peningkatan produksi padi organik dan mengurangi risiko usahatani padi organik. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa petani padi organik di Desa Ketapang Kecamatan susukan mayoritas 76 petani (100%) menghindari risiko atau menolak risiko (risk averter. Luas lahan dan pendapatan petani signifikan mempengaruhi perilaku petani terhadap risiko.

PEMBENTUKAN PORTOFOLIO OPTIMAL DENGAN METODE RESAMPLED EFFICIENT FRONTIER UNTUK PERHITUNGAN VALUE AT RISK DILENGKAPI APLIKASI GUI MATLAB

The purpose of investors in investing is to get a return, but investors also have to bear the risks that might exist. There are 3 types of investors in investment based on their preference for risk, namely risk aversion (risk averter), moderate risk takers (risk moderate), and high risk takers (risk takers). To obtain an optimal portfolio for each type of investor, the Resampled Efficient Frontier Method is used with Monte Carlo Simulation as much as 700 times, to obtain more parameter estimates. The results of the Resampled Efficient Frontier from Efficient Frontier will take 51 efficient points to determine the optimal portfolio for each type of investor. The efficient point taken is the 1st, 26th and 51st efficient points for the investor risk averter type, risk moderate, and risk taker. To determine the estimated loss in investment, the VaR value is calculated based on the monthly return data of BBNI, UNTR, INKP, and KLBF shares for the period February 2013 to March 2017, with a capital allocation of Rp 100,000,000.00, a holding period of 20 days, and a level of trust of 95%. The Matlab GUI is used to facilitate users in processing data.Keywords: Efficient Frontier, Monte-Carlo Simulation, Normal Distribution, VaR, Matlab GUI

Production Risk of Rice in Kebonsari, Madiun Regency

ABSTRACTThis study aims to determine the risks, factors affecting risk and investigate the attitude toward risk in Kebonsari, Madiun regency. This research used primary and secondary data. Primary data obtained purposively by 61 respondents. Coefficient of variation (CV) method was used to analyze the risk, while Just and Pope model was used to analyze the factors affecting production risk. Attitude toward risk was analyzed with Moscardi and de Javnry model. The result of production risk analysis shows that production of rice farming in Kebonsari Madiun regency has a low variation which is about 14,80%. It means that production risk faced by paddy farmers in this area is low. Phonska fertilizer and other fertilizer are risk-increasing variables whereas liquid pesticide is risk decreasing variable. The result of K (s) indicated that 91,60% or 56 paddy farmers are risk averter. About 4,92% of paddy farmers are risk lover and 3,28% are risk neutral. The farmers are behaving in rational manner which avoid the possible risk that might be higher than the revenues to be earned.

PERILAKU PETANI CABAI RAWIT TERHADAP RESIKO FLUKTUASI HARGA DI KECAMATAN GUMUKMAS KABUPATEN JEMBER

This study was aimed to determine the farmer’s behaviour in face of risk as result of pepper’s price fluctuation in Gumukmas District, Jember Regency. There are three criterias in farmer’s behaviour : risk lover, risk neutral, and risk averter. Thirty-nine farmers was selected by using simple random sampling. The utility function was employed to determine farmer’s behaviour. In this research, utility function with Bernoulli and Neuman -Morgerstern technique was used. This specification was modified with neutral probability (50:50). Estimation on this function was done by using uncertainty equivalent (CE) through quadratic estimation. The result showed that arround 33 farmers (84.62%) are risk neutral. The risk averter are 5 farmers (11.52%) and one farmer (2.56%) is risk lover. This result also showed that farmers with own land ownership status were more daring than farmers who own land tenure status, profit sharing, or farmers who have two land ownership status. Other results indicated that the farmers who pursued local pepperwere more daring than the farmers who pursued hybrid pepper or farmers who persuedlocal and hybrid at once.

Rice Farmer's Risk Attitude: An Analysis of Production Risk in Jawa Barat

<p><strong>Abstrak</strong></p><p><br />Makalah ini merupakan, pertama, suatu pendekatan untuk menyelidiki sikap petani terhadap resiko (risk) di Indonesia. Resiko ini secara eksplisit direfleksikan dalam keragaman produksi yang dihasilkan oleh petani. Kedua, tulisan ini mencoba mengevaluasi dampak penggunaan masukan ter­ hadap resiko produksi. Petani-petani contoh dipilih dari enam desa di Daerah Aliran Sungai (DAS) Cimanuk, Jawa Barat. Analisis ini menunjukkan bahwa petani bersifat penghindar resiko (risk-averter) dalam penggunaan pupuk nitrogen dan tenaga kerja man usia. Selanjutnya diperlihatkan bahwa agaknya faktor produksi benih, pupuk nitrogen dan fosfat, serta luas areal berlaku sebagai masukan yang bersifat pembangkit resiko (risk-inducing), sedangkan masukan tenaga kerja (manusia dan ternak) bersifat pengurang resiko (risk-reducing) sebagaimana terlihat pada data musim hujan.</p>

Probabilitas Tingkat Laba Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 1 Juli 1997 – 1 Juli 2011

Capital market investor should considers whether the higher expected return, the more risk should be taken, to minimize speculative decision. The research objectives are measuring and describes the probability distribution of market return of IHSG, in July 1, 1997- July 1, 2011, according to availability of public data provided by Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX). Classification were made with several considered assumptions, results that the largest probability movements of Indonesian Stock Exchange, represented by IHSG percentage of change, is relatively stable of 89,1%, the cumulative probability of downtrend and market crash is 6.3%, whether the cumulative probability of uptrend and booming is 4,6%. This research results the expected return based on probability distribution is 0.049% per day. Assumed 12% pa of time deposits interest rate or 0.033% per day, it means the market risk premium only 0.17% per day or 6% pa. The Capital market is suitable for risk seeker rather than risk averter or risk normal. But risk averter and risk normal may use other alternative instrument such mutual funds when they want to invest their money into capital market.