Small Sample Adjustment for Hypotheses Testing on Cointegrating Vectors

Johansen’s (2000. “A Bartlett Correction Factor for Tests of on the Cointegrating Relations.” Econometric Theory 16: 740–78) Bartlett correction factor for the LR test of linear restrictions on cointegrated vectors is derived under the i.i.d. Gaussian assumption for the innovation terms. However, the distribution of most data relating to financial variables is fat-tailed and often skewed; there is therefore a need to examine small sample inference procedures that require weaker assumptions for the innovation term. This paper suggests that using the non-parametric bootstrap to approximate a Bartlett-type correction provides a statistic that does not require specification of the innovation distribution and can be used by applied econometricians to perform a small sample inference procedure that is less computationally demanding than it’s analytical counterpart. The procedure involves calculating a number of bootstrap values of the LR test statistic and estimating the expected value of the test statistic by the average value of the bootstrapped LR statistic. Simulation results suggest that the inference procedure has good finite sample property and is less dependent on the parameter space of the data generating process.

The Mixed Liu Estimator in Stochastic Restricted Linear Measurement Error Model

Ghapani and Babdi [1] proposed a mixed Liu estimator in linear measurement error model with stochastic linear restrictions. In this article, we propose an alternative mixed Liu estimator in the linear measurement error model with stochastic linear restrictions. The performance of the new mixed Liu estimator over the mixed estimator, Liu estimator, and mixed Liu estimator proposed by Ghapani and Babdi [1] are discussed in the sense of mean squared error matrix. Finally, a simulation study is given to show the performance of these estimators.

On best linear unbiased estimation and prediction under a constrained linear random-effects model

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>This paper is concerned with solving some fundamental estimation, prediction, and inference problems on a linear random-effects model with its parameter vector satisfying certain exact linear restrictions. Our work includes deriving analytical formulas for calculating the best linear unbiased predictors (BLUPs) and the best linear unbiased estimators (BLUEs) of all unknown parameters in the model by way of solving certain constrained quadratic matrix optimization problems, characterizing various mathematical and statistical properties of the predictors and estimators, establishing various fundamental rank and inertia formulas associated with the covariance matrices of predictors and estimators, and presenting necessary and sufficient conditions for several equalities and inequalities of covariance matrices of the predictors and estimators to hold.</p>

ESTIMATION OF THE KRONECKER COVARIANCE MODEL BY QUADRATIC FORM

We propose a new estimator, the quadratic form estimator, of the Kronecker product model for covariance matrices. We show that this estimator has good properties in the large dimensional case (i.e., the cross-sectional dimension n is large relative to the sample size T). In particular, the quadratic form estimator is consistent in a relative Frobenius norm sense provided ${\log }^3n/T\to 0$ . We obtain the limiting distributions of the Lagrange multiplier and Wald tests under both the null and local alternatives concerning the mean vector $\mu $ . Testing linear restrictions of $\mu $ is also investigated. Finally, our methodology is shown to perform well in finite sample situations both when the Kronecker product model is true and when it is not true.

Finite time analysis of vector autoregressive models under linear restrictions

This paper develops a unified finite-time theory for the ordinary least squares estimation of possibly unstable and even slightly explosive vector autoregressive models under linear restrictions, with the applicable region ρ(A) ≤ 1 + c/n, where ρ(A) is the spectral radius of the transition matrix A in the Var(1) representation, n is the time horizon and c &gt; 0 is a universal constant. The linear restriction framework encompasses various existing models such as banded/network vector autoregressive models. We show that the restrictions reduce the error bounds via not only the reduced dimensionality but also a scale factor resembling the asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimator in the fixed-dimensional set-up: as long as the model is correctly specified, this scale factor is decreasing in the number of restrictions. It is revealed that the phase transition from slow to fast error rate regimes is determined by the smallest singular value of A, a measure of the least excitable mode of the system. The minimax lower bounds are derived across different regimes. The developed non-asymptotic theory not only bridges the theoretical gap between stable and unstable regimes but precisely characterizes the effect of restrictions and its interplay with model parameters. Simulations support our theoretical results.

Stochastic Restricted LASSO-Type Estimator in the Linear Regression Model

Among several variable selection methods, LASSO is the most desirable estimation procedure for handling regularization and variable selection simultaneously in the high-dimensional linear regression models when multicollinearity exists among the predictor variables. Since LASSO is unstable under high multicollinearity, the elastic-net (Enet) estimator has been used to overcome this issue. According to the literature, the estimation of regression parameters can be improved by adding prior information about regression coefficients to the model, which is available in the form of exact or stochastic linear restrictions. In this article, we proposed a stochastic restricted LASSO-type estimator (SRLASSO) by incorporating stochastic linear restrictions. Furthermore, we compared the performance of SRLASSO with LASSO and Enet in root mean square error (RMSE) criterion and mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) criterion based on a Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally, a real-world example was used to demonstrate the performance of SRLASSO.

Leave‐Out Estimation of Variance Components

We propose leave‐out estimators of quadratic forms designed for the study of linear models with unrestricted heteroscedasticity. Applications include analysis of variance and tests of linear restrictions in models with many regressors. An approximation algorithm is provided that enables accurate computation of the estimator in very large data sets. We study the large sample properties of our estimator allowing the number of regressors to grow in proportion to the number of observations. Consistency is established in a variety of settings where plug‐in methods and estimators predicated on homoscedasticity exhibit first‐order biases. For quadratic forms of increasing rank, the limiting distribution can be represented by a linear combination of normal and non‐central χ 2 random variables, with normality ensuing under strong identification. Standard error estimators are proposed that enable tests of linear restrictions and the construction of uniformly valid confidence intervals for quadratic forms of interest. We find in Italian social security records that leave‐out estimates of a variance decomposition in a two‐way fixed effects model of wage determination yield substantially different conclusions regarding the relative contribution of workers, firms, and worker‐firm sorting to wage inequality than conventional methods. Monte Carlo exercises corroborate the accuracy of our asymptotic approximations, with clear evidence of non‐normality emerging when worker mobility between blocks of firms is limited.

Liu Estimator in Semiparametric Partially Linear Varying Coefficient Models

This paper considers biased estimation for partially linear varying coefficient model to overcome the problem of multicollinearity. By the Liu estimation approach, we construct a profile Liu estimator for the constant coefficients. Furthermore, a restricted profile-Liu estimator is proposed for the situation that some additional linear restrictions are available. The properties of the proposed estimators are investigated.