Optimising the Preventive Maintenance Interval Using a Semi-Markov Process, Z-Transform, and Finite Planning Horizon

This chapter uses a semi-Markov process and the z transform to find the optimal preventive maintenance interval when dealing with maintenance decision making for a finite time planning horizon. The result is a method that can be easily implemented to assets for which a Weibull reliability analysis exists. The suggested preventive interval formulation is simple and practical. The requirements to apply this simple formula are related to the existence of asset´s reliability data as well as cost/rewards that the assets have when remaining or transitioning to a given state. The application of this method can be very straightforward, and the tool can become a good decision support tool allowing “what if” analysis for different time horizon and maintenance policies.

Asymptomatic individuals can increase the final epidemic size under adaptive human behavior

Infections produced by non-symptomatic (pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic) individuals have been identified as major drivers of COVID-19 transmission. Non-symptomatic individuals, unaware of the infection risk they pose to others, may perceive themselves—and be perceived by others—as not presenting a risk of infection. Yet, many epidemiological models currently in use do not include a behavioral component, and do not address the potential consequences of risk misperception. To study the impact of behavioral adaptations to the perceived infection risk, we use a mathematical model that incorporates the behavioral decisions of individuals, based on a projection of the system’s future state over a finite planning horizon. We found that individuals’ risk misperception in the presence of non-symptomatic individuals may increase or reduce the final epidemic size. Moreover, under behavioral response the impact of non-symptomatic infections is modulated by symptomatic individuals’ behavior. Finally, we found that there is an optimal planning horizon that minimizes the final epidemic size.

Non-periodic inspection of optimization of repairable systems

This study proposes models to find the optimal non-periodic inspection interval over a finite planning horizon for two types of multi-component repairable systems. The first system consists of hard-type and soft-type components, and the second system is a k-out-of-m system with m identical components. The failures of components in both systems follow a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The failure of soft-type components and the failure of components in a k-out-of-m system when the number of failed components is still less than m-k+1, are soft failures. Soft failures are revealed only at scheduled inspections or when an event of opportunistic inspection or a system failure occurs. The failures of hard-type components or the failure of (m-k+1)th failed component in a k-out-of-m system are hard failures, and cause the system to stop functioning. Hard failures are revealed immediately and the failed components are fixed. In this study, a failed component is either replaced or minimally repaired according to its age at failure time. To find the optimal inspection schedules for the systems, we minimize the total expected cost of the systems over a finite planning horizon. The total cost for the first type of system includes the costs of components’ minimal repairs, replacements, downtimes, and the scheduled inspections. The total cost of a k-out-of-m system has an additional penalty cost for system failures. We consider a binary variable for a possible scheduled inspection’s time, in which 1 indicates performing a planned inspection at that time, and 0 shows no inspection to be performed. Thus, our goal is to find the optimal vector of binary decision variables which results in the minimum total cost of the system. A recursive formula is developed to calculate the expected number of minimal repairs, replacements and downtime of soft-type components. However since obtaining the expected values from the mathematical formula is cumbersome, we develop a simulation model to obtain the total expected cost for a given non-periodic inspection scheme. We then integrate the simulation model with a genetic algorithm to obtain the optimal inspection scheme.

Non-periodic inspection of optimization of repairable systems

This study proposes models to find the optimal non-periodic inspection interval over a finite planning horizon for two types of multi-component repairable systems. The first system consists of hard-type and soft-type components, and the second system is a k-out-of-m system with m identical components. The failures of components in both systems follow a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The failure of soft-type components and the failure of components in a k-out-of-m system when the number of failed components is still less than m-k+1, are soft failures. Soft failures are revealed only at scheduled inspections or when an event of opportunistic inspection or a system failure occurs. The failures of hard-type components or the failure of (m-k+1)th failed component in a k-out-of-m system are hard failures, and cause the system to stop functioning. Hard failures are revealed immediately and the failed components are fixed. In this study, a failed component is either replaced or minimally repaired according to its age at failure time. To find the optimal inspection schedules for the systems, we minimize the total expected cost of the systems over a finite planning horizon. The total cost for the first type of system includes the costs of components’ minimal repairs, replacements, downtimes, and the scheduled inspections. The total cost of a k-out-of-m system has an additional penalty cost for system failures. We consider a binary variable for a possible scheduled inspection’s time, in which 1 indicates performing a planned inspection at that time, and 0 shows no inspection to be performed. Thus, our goal is to find the optimal vector of binary decision variables which results in the minimum total cost of the system. A recursive formula is developed to calculate the expected number of minimal repairs, replacements and downtime of soft-type components. However since obtaining the expected values from the mathematical formula is cumbersome, we develop a simulation model to obtain the total expected cost for a given non-periodic inspection scheme. We then integrate the simulation model with a genetic algorithm to obtain the optimal inspection scheme.

Adaptive Human Behavior in Epidemics: the Impact of Risk Misperception on the Spread of Epidemics

Infections produced by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic (non-symptomatic) individuals have been identified as major drivers of COVID-19 transmission. Non-symptomatic individuals unaware of the infection risk they pose to others, may perceive themselves --and being perceived by others-- as not representing risk of infection. Yet many epidemiological models currently in use do not include a behavioral component, and do not address the potential consequences of risk misperception. To study the impact of behavioral adaptations to the perceived infection risk, we use a mathematical model that incorporates individuals' behavioral decisions based on a projection of the future system's state over a finite planning horizon. We found that individuals' risk misperception in the presence of asymptomatic individuals may increase or reduce the final epidemic size. Moreover, under behavioral response the impact of asymptomatic infections is modulated by symptomatic individuals' behavior. Finally, we found that there is an optimal planning horizon that minimizes the final epidemic size.

An EOQ model with stepwise ordering cost and the finite planning horizon under carbon cap-and-trade regulations

In this study, under the carbon cap-and-trade mechanism, the ordering cost presents a stepwise function for ordering quantity, and the optimal economic ordering quantity model aims to explore the manufacturer's total cost minimization in the finite planning horizon, in combination with the actual situation that the product will produce carbon emissions during transportation and storage. The economic order quantity (EOQ) model with stepwise ordering cost is applicable to the decision environment in which goods are utilized by sea, by rail or by air (e.g., the order cost is charged in addition to the basic fixed cost, the importer of raw materials will pay an additional freight related to delivery, such as the rent for the use of container numbers.). A heuristic algorithm is also proposed to analyze the relevant properties of the optimal solution of the model and to solve the optimal order times and quantities of the manufacturer under the constraint of carbon policy.We further compared the optimal order times with the case without carbon constraint and the order times corresponding to the manufacturer's realization of the minimum carbon emission, and obtained the conditions for the manufacturer to achieve low cost and low emission under the carbon policy.Finally, the theoretical results of the model are verified by numerical examples,and the influence of relevant parameters on the inventory strategy of manufacturers is discussed. The results show that under the carbon cap-and-trade policy, there is an optimal ordering strategy that minimizes the total cost of the manufacturer in the finite horizon. When the demand of the manufacturer is under finite horizon and the carbon policy is equal to the specific multiplier of orders, the manufacturer can achieve a win-win result of low cost and low emissions.

Optimizing preventive maintenance over a finite planning horizon in a semi-Markov framework

This paper describes the optimization of preventive maintenance (PM) over a finite planning horizon in a semi-Markov framework. In this framework, the asset may be operating, and providing income for the asset owner, or not operating and undergoing PM, or not operating and undergoing corrective maintenance following failure. PM is triggered when the asset has been operating for τ time units. A number m of transitions specifies the finite horizon. This system is described with a set of recurrence relations, and their z-transform is used to determine the value of τ that maximizes the average accumulated reward over the horizon. We study under what conditions a solution can be found, and for those specific cases the solution τ* is calculated. Despite the complexity of the mathematical solution, the result obtained allows the analyst to provide a quick and easy-to-use tool for practical application in many real-world cases. To demonstrate this, the method has been implemented for a case study, and its accuracy and practical implementation were tested using Monte Carlo simulation and direct calculation.

Dynamic Optimal Control of Transboundary Pollution Abatement under Learning-by-Doing Depreciation

This paper analyzes a dynamic Stackelberg differential game model of watershed transboundary water pollution abatement and discusses the optimal decision-making problem under non-cooperative and cooperative differential game, in which the accumulation effect and depreciation effect of learning-by-doing pollution abatement investment are taken into account. We use dynamic optimization theory to solve the equilibrium solution of models. Through numerical simulation analysis, the path simulation and analysis of the optimal trajectory curves of each variable under finite-planning horizon and long-term steady state were carried out. Under the finite-planning horizon, the longer the planning period is, the lower the optimal emission rate is in equilibrium. The long-term steady-state game under cooperative decision can effectively reduce the amount of pollution emission. The investment intensity of pollution abatement in the implementation of non-cooperative game is higher than that of cooperative game. Under the long-term steady state, the pollution abatement investment trajectory of the cooperative game is relatively stable and there is no obvious crowding out effect. Investment continues to rise, and the optimal equilibrium level at steady state is higher than that under non-cooperative decision making. The level of decline in pollution stock under finite-planning horizon is not significant. Under the condition of long-term steady state, the trajectories of upstream and downstream pollution in the non-cooperative model and cooperative model are similar, but cooperative decision-making model is superior to the non-cooperative model in terms of the period of stabilization and steady state.

The Fuzzyfied Supply Chain Finite Planning Horizon Model

A supply chain model is discussed for materials substances such as metals, ceramics, or plastics manufactured which is deteriorating in nature. Fuzzy parameters such as fuzzy deterioration cost, fuzzy holding cost fuzzy inventory carrying cost etcetera are considered for framing of the model which are later defuzzified using Centroid, Signed Distance and Graded Mean Representation method. Centralized replenishment policy in this finite planning horizon model is discussed along with sensitivity analysis.