Expert Arguments for Trends of Psychiatric Bed Numbers: A Systematic Review of Qualitative Data

Introduction: Mental health policies have encouraged removals of psychiatric beds in many countries. It is under debate whether to continue those trends. We conducted a systematic review of expert arguments for trends of psychiatric bed numbers.Methods: We searched seven electronic databases and screened 15,479 papers to identify expert opinions, arguments and recommendations for trends of psychiatric bed numbers, published until December 2020. Data were synthesized using thematic analysis and classified into arguments to maintain or increase numbers and to reduce numbers.Results: One hundred six publications from 25 countries were included. The most common themes arguing for reductions of psychiatric bed numbers were inadequate use of inpatient care, better integration of care and better use of community care. Arguments to maintain or increase bed numbers included high demand of psychiatric beds, high occupancy rates, increasing admission rates, criminalization of mentally ill, lack of community care and inadequately short length of stay. Cost effectiveness and quality of care were used as arguments for increase or decrease.Conclusions: The expert arguments presented here may guide and focus future debate on the required psychiatric bed numbers. The recommendations may help policymakers to define targets for psychiatric bed numbers. Arguments need careful local evaluation, especially when supporting opposite directions of trends in different contexts.

The Penrose hypothesis in the second half of the 20th century: investigating the relationship between psychiatric bed numbers and the prison population in England between 1960 and 2018–2019

Background NHS Psychiatric beds comprise mental illness and intellectual disability beds. Penrose hypothesised that the number of psychiatric in-patients was inversely related to prison population size. Aims To ascertain whether the Penrose hypothesis held true in England between 1960 and 2018–2019. Method A time-series analysis explored the association between total prison population and NHS psychiatric beds; this was also tested for the male and female prison populations, using non-psychiatric beds as a comparator. Associations were explored with time lags of up to 20 years. Linear regression was conducted to estimate the size of the effect of bed closures. Results NHS psychiatric beds decreased 93% and the prison population increased 208%. A strong (r =−0.96) and highly significant negative correlation between these changes was found. Annual reduction in psychiatric bed numbers was associated with an increase in prison population, strongest at a lag of 10 years. The closure of mental illness and intellectual disability beds was associated with increases in female prisoners 10 years later. The only significant explanatory variable for the increase in male prison population was intellectual disability bed reduction. Conclusions The Penrose hypothesis held true between 1960 and 2018–2019 in England: psychiatric bed closures were associated with increases in prison population up to 10 years later. For every 100 psychiatric beds closed, there were 36 more prisoners 10 years later: 3 more female prisoners and 33 more male prisoners. Our results suggest that the dramatic increase in the female prison population may relate to the closure of NHS beds.

Modelling intensive care unit capacity under different epidemiological scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic in three Western European countries

Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed enormous strain on intensive care units (ICUs) in Europe. Ensuring access to care, irrespective of COVID-19 status, in winter 2020–2021 is essential. Methods An integrated model of hospital capacity planning and epidemiological projections of COVID-19 patients is used to estimate the demand for and resultant spare capacity of ICU beds, staff and ventilators under different epidemic scenarios in France, Germany and Italy across the 2020–2021 winter period. The effect of implementing lockdowns triggered by different numbers of COVID-19 patients in ICUs under varying levels of effectiveness is examined, using a ‘dual-demand’ (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19) patient model. Results Without sufficient mitigation, we estimate that COVID-19 ICU patient numbers will exceed those seen in the first peak, resulting in substantial capacity deficits, with beds being consistently found to be the most constrained resource. Reactive lockdowns could lead to large improvements in ICU capacity during the winter season, with pressure being most effectively alleviated when lockdown is triggered early and sustained under a higher level of suppression. The success of such interventions also depends on baseline bed numbers and average non-COVID-19 patient occupancy. Conclusion Reductions in capacity deficits under different scenarios must be weighed against the feasibility and drawbacks of further lockdowns. Careful, continuous decision-making by national policymakers will be required across the winter period 2020–2021.

COVID-19 Infection Process in Italy and Spain: Are Data Talking? Evidence From ARMA and Vector Autoregression Models

COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) has spread successfully worldwide in a matter of weeks. After the example of China, all the affected countries are taking hard-confinement measures to control the infection and to gain some time to reduce the significant amount of cases that arrive at the hospital. Although the measures in China reduced the percentages of new cases, this is not seen in other countries that have taken similar measures, such as Italy and Spain. After the first weeks, the worry was whether or not the healthcare system would collapse rather than its response to the patient's needs who are infected and require hospitalization. Using China as a mirror of what could happen in our countries and with the data available, we calculated a model that forecasts the peak of the curve of infection, hospitalization, and ICU bed numbers. We aimed to review the patterns of spread of the virus in the two countries and their regions, looking for similarities that reflect the existence of a typical path in this expansive virulence and the effects of the intervention of the authorities with drastic isolation measures, to contain the outbreak. A model based on Autorregressive and moving average models (ARMA) methodology and including Chinese disease pattern as a proxy, predicts the contagious pattern robustly. Based on the prediction, the hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) requirements were also calculated. Results suggest a reduction in the speed of contagion during April in both countries, earlier in Spain than in Italy. The forecast advanced a significant increase in the ICU needs for Spain surpassing 8,000 units by the end of April, but for Italy, ICU needs would decrease in the same period, according to the model. We present the following predictions to inform political leaders because they have the responsibility to maintain the national health systems away from collapsing. We are confident these data could help them into decision-taking and place the capitals (from hospital beds to human resources) into the right place.

How many medical beds does a country need? An international perspective

Background/Aims While many methods exist for calculating bed numbers, the current method for making international comparisons is inadequate, as it makes no adjustment for population age or the nearness to death effect. This study investigated the number of acute medical beds in various countries using a new method to compare bed numbers within and between countries. Methods The number of available medical beds in various (mainly European) countries were obtained from the World Health Organization. These were divided by the number of deaths in each country to give the ratio of beds per 1000 deaths and this was plotted against the ratio of deaths per 1000 population (the crude mortality rate) in each country. This was compared to similar data, but for occupied rather than available beds, for England over the period 2000/01 to 2018/19. Results In England, the medical group of specialties accounts for over 60% of all occupied acute beds. Since 2011 this proportion has risen to over 64%. For two decades England has had around 165±5 occupied medical beds per 1000 deaths (at an assumed 95% average occupancy), and England therefore has a similar number of medical beds to 11 of the 37 other countries. The relatively low slope of the relationship between beds per 1000 deaths and deaths per 1000 population indicates that the nearness to death effect is the major driving force for medical bed requirements. Conclusions Both data sets indicate that the nearness to death effect is the most important variable in forecasting occupied and available medical bed numbers. Based on the forecasted increase in deaths, demanf of medical beds in England is likely to increase by 39% over the next 40 years.

Psychiatric beds and prison populations in 17 Latin American countries between 1991 and 2017: rates, trends and an inverse relationship between the two indicators

Background In 1990, Latin American countries committed to psychiatric reforms including psychiatric bed removals. Aim of the study was to quantify changes in psychiatric bed numbers and prison population rates after the initiation of psychiatric reforms in Latin America. Methods We searched primary sources to collect numbers of psychiatric beds and prison population rates across Latin America between the years 1991 and 2017. Changes of psychiatric bed numbers were compared against trends of incarceration rates and tested for associations using fixed-effects regression of panel data. Economic variables were used as covariates. Reliable data were obtained from 17 Latin American countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Honduras, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, El Salvador, Uruguay and Venezuela. Results The number of psychiatric beds decreased in 15 out of 17 Latin American countries (median −35%) since 1991. Our findings indicate the total removal of 69 415 psychiatric beds. The prison population increased in all countries (median +181%). Panel data regression analyses showed a significant inverse relationship −2.70 (95% CI −4.28 to −1.11; p = 0.002) indicating that prison populations increased more when and where more psychiatric beds were removed. This relationship held up when introducing per capita income and income inequality as covariates −2.37 (95% CI −3.95 to −0.8; p = 0.006). Conclusions Important numbers of psychiatric beds have been removed in Latin America. Removals of psychiatric beds were related to increasing incarceration rates. Minimum numbers of psychiatric beds need to be defined and addressed in national policies.

Would the United States Have Had Too Few Beds for Universal Emergency Care in the Event of a More Widespread Covid-19 Epidemic?

(1) Background: To evaluate the level of hospital bed numbers in U.S. states relative to other countries using a new method for evaluating bed numbers, and to determine if this is sufficient for universal health care during a major Covid-19 epidemic in all states (2) Methods: Hospital bed numbers in each state were compared using a new international comparison methodology. Covid-19 deaths per 100 hospital beds were used as a proxy for bed capacity pressures. (3) Results: Hospital bed numbers show large variation between U.S. states and half of the states have equivalent beds to those in developing countries. Relatively low population density in over half of US states appeared to have limited the spread of Covid-19 thus averting a potential major hospital capacity crisis. (4) Conclusions: Many U.S. states had too few beds to cope with a major Covid-19 epidemic, but this was averted by low population density in many states, which seemed to limit the spread of the virus.