Lifespan cost analysis of alternatives to global sulphur emission limit with uncertainties

Following the updated global sulphur emission cap from 1 January 2020, shipowners are facing an increasing cost burden to comply with the new regulation in a tough shipping market. This research compares the lifespan costs of three main alternatives, all of which can satisfy the 2020 global sulphur emission regulation. A lifespan cost analysis model is built considering several cost items across the three alternatives, including the initial cost of investment, maintenance cost and fuel consumption cost. Two vessels with a capacity of 5000 and 10,000 TEUs are selected as case study vessels. The @risk software is utilized to conduct an uncertainty analysis with respect to the fuel price and the discount rate to test the three alternatives in different circumstances. The results indicate that the larger the vessel, the lower the discount rate, and the greater the price of Mixed Fuel Oil (a mixture of Very Low Sulphur Oil and Marine Gas Oil), the more attractive the scrubber option. Quantitatively, if the refining technology of low-sulphur fuel improves in the future and the price differential between Mixed Fuel Oil and Heavy Sulphur Fuel Oil decreases to $29 per ton for the 5000 TEU vessel or $27 per ton for the 10,000 TEU vessel, the fuel-switch alternative will be as competitive as the use of a scrubber in terms of the lifespan cost. Additionally, as the discount rate increases, the cost gap between the use of a scrubber and the other two alternatives gradually decreases.

Blockchain for LBG Maritime Energy Contracting and Value Chain Management: A Green Shipping Business Model for Seaports

To reduce emissions in the maritime transport sector, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) follows a global clean shipping strategy. Among the different directives of IMO, currently especially the sulphur emission regulations pose challenges for the shipping industry. Related to this are the established Sulphur Emission Control Areas (SECAs) and the introduced global sulphur cap. To comply with the sulphur restrictions, according to the present technological state of the art, ship-owners have three options for their existing fleet: the installation of emission abatement technologies, the switch to low sulphur fuels, or retrofitting for the usage of alternative fuels. Regardless which option is favoured, most often selected solutions still depend on fossil fuels. The reasons for this can be traced back to the fact that supply of biofuels is not ensured in ports and generally seen as no profitable solution. This paper develops and examines an innovative business model with a special focus on liquefied biogas (LBG). The study bases on collected qualitative and quantitative data, which was used by applying the Business Model Canvas. The results will highlight that the business model bears the potential to promote LBG supply. Next to this, the research will show that blockchain and smart contracts are able to foster the implementation of the business model and optimisation of value chain operations. Lastly, economic advantages were highlighted within a case study that refers to the seaport Karlskrona in Sweden and the RoPax ferries from Stena Line that travel back and forth to Gdynia seaport in Poland.

Ship plumes in the Baltic Sea Sulphur Emission Control Area: Chemical characterization and contribution to coastal aerosol concentrations

In coastal areas, there is increased concern about emissions from shipping activities and the associated impact on air quality. We have assessed the ship aerosol properties and the contribution to coastal particulate matter (PM) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels by measuring ship plumes in ambient conditions at a site in Southern Sweden, within a Sulphur Emission Control Area. Measurements took place during a summer and a winter campaign, 10 km downwind of a major shipping lane. Individual ships showed large variability in contribution to total particle mass, organics, sulphate, and NO2. The average emission contribution of the ship fleet was 29 ± 13 and 37 ± 20 ng m−3 to PM0.5, 18 ± 8 and 34 ± 19 ng m−3 to PM0.15, and 1.21 ± 0.57 and 1.11 ± 0.61 µg m−3 to NO2, during winter and summer respectively. Sulphate and organics dominated the particle mass and most plumes contained undetectable amounts of equivalent black carbon (eBC). The average eBC contribution was 3.5 ± 1.7 ng m−3 and the absorption Ångström exponent was close to 1. Simulated aging of the ship aerosols using an oxidation flow reactor showed that during a few occasions, there was an increase in sulphate and organic mass after photochemical processing of the plumes. However, most plumes did not produce measurable amounts of secondary PM upon simulated ageing.

Model and analysis of the effect of China’s potential domestic emission control area with 0.1% sulphur limit

Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of China’s potential domestic emission control area (DECA) with 0.1 per cent sulphur limit on sulphur emission reduction. Design/methodology/approach The authors calculate the fuel cost of a direct path within the DECA and a path that bypasses the DECA for ships that sail between two Chinese ports in view of the DECA. Ships adopt the path with the lower cost and the resulting sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions can be calculated. They then conduct sensitivity analysis of the SO2 emissions with different values of the parameters related to sailing distance, fuel price and ships. Findings The results show that ships tend to detour to bypass the DECA when the distance between the two ports is long, the ratio of the price of low sulphur fuel and that of high sulphur fuel is high and the required time for fuel switching is long. If the time required for fuel switching is less than 12 h or even 24 h, it can be anticipated that a large number of ships will bypass the DECA, undermining the SO2 reduction effect of the DECA. Originality/value This study points out the size and shape difference between the emission control areas in Europe and North America and China’s DECA affects ships’ path choice and SO2 emissions.