Contributions of equatorial waves and small-scale convective gravity waves to the 2019/20 quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) disruption

In January 2020, unexpected easterly winds developed in the downward-propagating westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase. This event corresponds to the second QBO disruption in history, and it occurred 4 years after the first disruption of 2015/16. According to several previous studies, strong midlatitude Rossby waves propagating from the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during the SH winter likely initiated the disruption; nevertheless, the wave forcing that finally led to the disruption has not been investigated. In this study, we examine the role of equatorial waves and small-scale convective gravity waves (CGWs) in the 2019/20 QBO disruption using Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) global reanalysis data. In June–September 2019, unusually strong Rossby wave forcing originating from the SH decelerated the westerly QBO at 0–5∘ N at ∼50 hPa. In October–November 2019, vertically (horizontally) propagating Rossby waves and mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG) waves began to increase (decrease). From December 2019, the contribution of the MRG wave forcing to the zonal wind deceleration was the largest, followed by the Rossby wave forcing originating from the Northern Hemisphere and the equatorial troposphere. In January 2020, CGWs provided 11 % of the total negative wave forcing at ∼43 hPa. Inertia–gravity (IG) waves exhibited a moderate contribution to the negative forcing throughout. Although the zonal mean precipitation was not significantly larger than the climatology, convectively coupled equatorial wave activities were increased during the 2019/20 disruption. As in the 2015/16 QBO disruption, the increased barotropic instability at the QBO edges generated more MRG waves at 70–90 hPa, and westerly anomalies in the upper troposphere allowed more westward IG waves and CGWs to propagate to the stratosphere. Combining the 2015/16 and 2019/20 disruption cases, Rossby waves and MRG waves can be considered the key factors inducing QBO disruption.

Role of equatorial waves and convective gravity waves in the 2015/16 QBO disruption

<p>In winter 2015/2016, the descent of the westerly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was unprecedentedly disrupted by the development of easterly winds. Previous studies have shown that extratropical Rossby waves propagating into the tropics were the major cause of the 2015/16 QBO disruption. However, a large portion of the negative momentum forcing driving the disruption still stems from equatorial planetary and gravity waves, which calls for detailed analyses by separating each wave mode. In this study, the contributions of resolved equatorial planetary waves (Kelvin, Rossby, mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG), and inertia–gravity (IG) waves) and small-scale convective gravity waves (CGWs) obtained from an offline CGW parameterization to the 2015/16 QBO disruption are investigated using MERRA-2 global reanalysis data. In October and November 2015, anomalously strong negative forcing by MRG and IG waves weakened the QBO jet at 0–5°S near 40 hPa, possibly leading to Rossby wave breaking at the QBO jet core in the Southern Hemisphere. From December 2015 to January 2016, strong Rossby waves propagating horizontally (vertically) from the Northern Hemisphere (troposphere) decelerated the southern (northern) flank of the jet. In February 2016, when the westward CGW momentum flux at the source level was much stronger than the climatology, CGWs began to exert considerable negative forcing at 40–50 hPa near the Equator, in addition to the Rossby waves. The enhancement of the negative wave forcing in the tropics stems mostly from strong wave activity in the troposphere associated with increased convective activity and the westerly anomalies in the troposphere, except that the MRG wave forcing is more likely associated with increased barotropic instability in the lower stratosphere.</p>

Contributions of equatorial planetary waves and small-scale convective gravity waves to the 2019/20 QBO disruption

In January 2020, unexpected easterly winds developed in the downward-propagating westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase. This event corresponds to the second QBO disruption in history, and it occurred four years after the first disruption that occurred in 2015/16. According to several previous studies, strong midlatitude Rossby waves propagating from the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during the SH winter likely initiated the disruption; nevertheless, the wave forcing that finally led to the disruption has not been investigated. In this study, we examine the role of equatorial waves and small-scale convective gravity waves (CGWs) in the 2019/20 QBO disruption using MERRA-2 global reanalysis data. In June–September 2019, unusually strong Rossby wave forcing originating from the SH decelerated the westerly QBO at 0°–5° N at ~50 hPa. In October–November 2019, vertically (horizontally) propagating Rossby waves and mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG) waves began to increase (decrease). From December 2019, contribution of the MRG wave forcing to the zonal wind deceleration was the largest, followed by the Rossby wave forcing originating from the Northern Hemisphere and the equatorial troposphere. In January 2020, CGWs provided 11 % of the total negative wave forcing at ~43 hPa. Inertia–gravity (IG) waves exhibited a moderate contribution to the negative forcing throughout. Although the zonal-mean precipitation was not significantly larger than the climatology, convectively coupled equatorial wave activities were increased during the 2019/20 disruption. As in the 2015/16 QBO disruption, the increased barotropic instability at the QBO edges generated more MRG waves at 70–90 hPa, and westerly anomalies in the upper troposphere allowed more westward IG waves and CGWs to propagate to the stratosphere. Combining the 2015/16 and 2019/20 disruption cases, Rossby waves and MRG waves can be considered the key factors inducing QBO disruption.

Role of equatorial waves and convective gravity waves in the 2015/16 quasi-biennial oscillation disruption

In February 2016, the descent of the westerly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was unprecedentedly disrupted by the development of easterly winds. Previous studies have shown that extratropical Rossby waves propagating into the deep tropics were the major cause of the 2015/16 QBO disruption. However, a large portion of the negative momentum forcing associated with the disruption still stems from equatorial planetary and small-scale gravity waves, which calls for detailed analyses by separating each wave mode compared with climatological QBO cases. Here, the contributions of resolved equatorial planetary waves (Kelvin, Rossby, mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG), and inertia–gravity (IG) waves) and small-scale convective gravity waves (CGWs) obtained from an offline CGW parameterization to the 2015/16 QBO disruption are investigated using MERRA-2 global reanalysis data from October 2015 to February 2016. In October and November 2015, anomalously strong negative forcing by MRG and IG waves weakened the QBO jet at 0–5∘ S near 40 hPa, leading to Rossby wave breaking at the QBO jet core in the Southern Hemisphere. From December 2015 to January 2016, exceptionally strong Rossby waves propagating horizontally (vertically) continuously decelerated the southern (northern) flank of the jet. In February 2016, when the westward CGW momentum flux at the source level was much stronger than its climatology, CGWs began to exert considerable negative forcing at 40–50 hPa near the Equator, in addition to the Rossby waves. The enhancement of the negative wave forcing in the tropics stems mostly from strong wave activity in the troposphere associated with increased convective activity and the strong westerlies (or weaker easterlies) in the troposphere, except that the MRG wave forcing is more likely associated with increased barotropic instability in the lower stratosphere.

Contributions of Convective and Orographic Gravity Waves to the Brewer–Dobson Circulation Estimated from NCEP CFSR

Contributions of convective gravity waves (CGWs) and orographic gravity waves (OGWs) to the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) are examined and compared to those from resolved waves. OGW drag (OGWD) is provided by NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), while CGW drag (CGWD) is obtained from an offline calculation of a physically based CGW parameterization with convective heating and background data provided by CFSR. CGWD contributes to the shallow branch of the BDC regardless of the season, while OGWD contributes to both the shallow and deep branches except for the summertime, when OGWs hardly propagate into the stratosphere. At 70 hPa, the annual-mean tropical upward mass fluxes from Eliassen–Palm flux divergence (EPD), OGWD, and CGWD are 68%, 7%, and 4% of the total mass flux, respectively. The tropical upward mass flux at 70 hPa shows an increasing trend during the time period from 1979 to 1998, with 28%, 18%, and 6% of the trend driven by EPD, OGWD, and CGWD, respectively. The width of the turnaround latitudes tends to narrow for the streamfunctions induced by OGWD and CGWD but tends to widen for that induced by EPD. The contributions of GWD from MERRA (MERRA-2) to the climatology and long-term trend of the BDC are 7% (7%) and 13% (4%), respectively, somewhat smaller than the contributions of CGWD plus OGWD, which are estimated from CFSR to be 12% and 20%, respectively.

Momentum Flux of Convective Gravity Waves Derived from an Offline Gravity Wave Parameterization. Part II: Impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

The characteristics of small-scale convective gravity waves (CGWs; horizontal wavelengths <100 km) and their contributions to the large-scale flow in the stratosphere, including the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), are investigated using an offline calculation of a source-dependent, physically based CGW parameterization with global reanalysis data from 1979 to 2010. The CGW momentum flux (CGWMF) and CGW drag (CGWD) are calculated from the cloud top (source level) to the upper stratosphere using a Lindzen-type wave propagation scheme. The 32-yr-mean CGWD exhibits large magnitudes in the tropical upper stratosphere and near the stratospheric polar night jet (~60°). The maximum positive drag is 0.1 (1.5) m s−1 day−1, and the maximum negative drag is −0.9 (−0.7) m s−1 day−1 in January (July) between 3 and 1 hPa. In the tropics, the momentum forcing by CGWs at 30 hPa associated with the QBO in the westerly shear zone is 3.5–6 m s−1 month−1, which is smaller than that by Kelvin waves, while that by CGWs in the easterly shear zone (3.1–6 m s−1 month−1) is greater than that by any other equatorial planetary waves or inertio-gravity waves (inertio-GWs). Composite analyses of the easterly QBO (EQBO) and westerly QBO (WQBO) phases reveal that the zonal CGWMF is concentrated near 10°N and that the negative (positive) CGWD extends latitudinally to ±20° (±10°) at 30 hPa. The strongest (weakest) negative CGWD is in March–May (September–November) during the EQBO, and the strongest (weakest) positive CGWD is in June–August (March–May) during the WQBO. The CGWMF and CGWD are generally stronger during El Niño than during La Niña in the equatorial region.