Temporal changes in the emissions of CH₄ and CO from China estimated from CH₄ / CO₂ and CO / CO₂ correlations observed at Hateruma Island

In-situ observation of the atmospheric CO2, CH4, and CO mixing ratios at Hateruma Island (HAT, 24.05° N, 123.80° E) often show synoptic-scale variations with correlative elevations during winter, associated with air transport from the East Asian countries. We examine winter (November–March) trends in ΔCH4 / ΔCO2, ΔCO / ΔCO2, and ΔCO / ΔCH4 observed at Hateruma over the period 1999 to 2010. Although the ratios ΔCH4 / ΔCO2 and ΔCO / ΔCO2 both show an overall gradual decrease over the study period due to a recent rapid increase in fossil fuel consumption in China, we note that ΔCH4 / ΔCO2 and ΔCO / ΔCO2 remains relatively flat (no trend) during 2005–2010 and 1999–2004, respectively. The CO/CH4 slope on the other hand shows an increasing trend during 1999–2004 but a decrease during 2005–2010. Calculation of the concentration footprint for the atmospheric observation at HAT by using the FLEXPART Lagrangian particle dispersion model indicates that most of the short-term variations are caused by emission variations from North and East China. Combined with a set of reported emission maps, we have estimated the temporal changes in the annual CH4 and CO emissions from China under the assumption that the estimate of the fossil fuel-derived CO2 emissions based on the energy statistics is accurate. The estimated annual CH4 emissions, corresponding to non-seasonal sources or anthropogenic sources without rice fields, show a nearly constant value of 39 ± 6 TgCH4 yr−1 during 1998–2002, and then gradually increases to 46 ± 7 TgCH4 yr−1 in 2009/2010. The estimated annual CO emissions increase from 134 ± 26 TgCO yr−1 in 1998/1999 to 182 ± 33 TgCO yr−1 in 2004/2005, level off after 2005, and then slightly decrease to less than 160 TgCO yr−1 in 2008–2010.