Spatiotemporal effects of proximity to metro extension on housing price dynamics in Manhattan, New York City

Investment in public transportation such as a metro line extension is often capitalized partially into housing values due to the spatiotemporal effects. Using housing transaction data from 2014 to 2019, this paper studies the Second Avenue Subway or Q-line extension in New York’s City’s Manhattan borough. Multiple metro station catchment areas were investigated using spatial autocorrelation-corrected hedonic pricing models to capture the variation of housing price dynamics. The results indicate that properties in closer proximity to the Q-line extension received higher price discounts. The effect varied by occupancy type and building form: condominiums experienced the highest price discount, while walk-up and elevator co-ops experienced a price premium. After controlling for location variations, we observed price discounts on the westside and price premiums on the eastside of the Q-line. Residential properties within 150 m west to the Q-line extension received the highest price discount post operation, while on the eastside, properties in the same proximity received the highest price premium. The anticipation effect varies by distance to metro extension stations, both before and after the operation of metro line extension. We discuss the disruption of metro construction on the housing market depending on housing type, location variation, and changes over time.

Housing Price Forecasting in Selected Polish Cities During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic represents a combined supply and demand shock to the financial and housing market but also an unusual negative shock in terms of the health of society (households) and national economy. The fall in housing demand was initially assumed together with price decreases as a consequence of the uncertainty of the health of society, significant falls in stock markets and corporate solvency. However, the results of research in selected Polish cities do not indicate such a significant market recession. This article examines the housing price dynamics and forecasting in Polish cities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The TRAMO/SEATS and ARIMA models were used for the decomposition and forecasting of dwelling time series. The Polish housing market, represented by selected local housing markets, still shows a growing trend despite the COVID-19 pandemic throughout 2020. The housing market may slow down in 2021, but the strong forecasted growth trends in Warszawa and Poznań suggest that there will be no significant price decline in Poland in the near future.

Policy-Driven Boom and Bust in the Housing Market: Evidence from Mongolia

This paper examines the effects of a mortgage interest rate subsidy on booms and busts in the housing market by analyzing the Housing Mortgage program in Mongolia. We find that the most recent housing boom in Mongolia occurred from the second quarter (Q2) of 2012 to first quarter (Q1) of 2014, and that the subsequent housing bust lasted 4 years. Both house-specific factors and macroeconomic variables had a significant influence on housing price dynamics. Mortgage interest rate semielasticity and real household income elasticity were estimated as −3 and 1.4, respectively. Dynamic analysis of the estimated vector error correction models suggests that the country’s policy intervention in the mortgage market—introducing an interest rate subsidy on mortgage loans for residential properties of up to 80 square meters—drove the recent housing boom in Mongolia.

Booms and Busts in Housing Market and Health Outcomes for Older Americans

Background and Objectives The U.S. housing market has experienced considerable fluctuations over the last decades. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of housing price dynamics on physical health, mental health, and health-related behaviors for older American outright owners, mortgaged owners, and renters. Research Design and Methods We drew longitudinal data from the 1992-2016 Health and Retirement Study and merged it to the five-digit ZIP-code level Housing Price Index. The analytic sample comprised 34,182 persons and 174,759 person-year observations. We used a fixed-effects model to identify the health impacts of housing price dynamics separately for outright owners, mortgaged owners, and renters. Results A 100% increase in Housing Price Index was associated with a 2.81 and 3.50 percentage points (pp) increase in the probability of reporting excellent/very good/good health status for mortgage owners and renters, respectively. It was also related to a lower likelihood of obesity (1.82 pp) for outright owners, and a less chance of obesity (2.85 pp) and smoking (3.03 pp) for renters. All of these relationships were statistically significant (p<0.05). Renters also experienced significantly decreased depression scores (-0.24), measured by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale, associated with the same housing price changes. Discussion and Implications Housing price dynamics have significant health impacts, and renters are more sensitive to fluctuations in the housing market. Our study rules out the wealth effect as the mechanism through which changes in housing prices affect older adults’ health. Our findings may inform policies to promote older adults’ health by investing in local area amenities and improving socioeconomic conditions.

The Private Housing Market Cyclical Price Dynamics

Two types of heterogeneous investors (momentum and disposition) form a unique difference model to interpret housing price dynamics. Three parameters are crucial: auto-correlation, the rate of mean reversion and the contemporaneous adjustment towards long-term equilibrium price. For Singapore, we examine the dynamic structures that oscillate and/or diverge from equilibrium. Disposition investors predominate although the interaction between momentum and disposition investors acts as a key determinant of private housing price dynamics for a given time in a specific market. Key implication is that Singapore’s private housing market is low risk, offering stable returns owing to virtually no divergence even in the speculative 1990s. The best way to invest is to consider the momentum strategy and avoid the herd behavior for profit sustainability. For policy-makers, the Singapore private housing market is over-damped in the long run. Predominating disposition investors contribute to the market mechanism, which automatically adjusts private housing market prices. It is imperative to relax government intervention in Singapore’s private housing market to enhance its efficiency.