scholarly journals Housing Price Forecasting in Selected Polish Cities During the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 59-80
Author(s):  
Mirosław Bełej
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Housing Price Dynamics ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Negative Shock

The COVID-19 pandemic represents a combined supply and demand shock to the financial and housing market but also an unusual negative shock in terms of the health of society (households) and national economy. The fall in housing demand was initially assumed together with price decreases as a consequence of the uncertainty of the health of society, significant falls in stock markets and corporate solvency. However, the results of research in selected Polish cities do not indicate such a significant market recession. This article examines the housing price dynamics and forecasting in Polish cities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The TRAMO/SEATS and ARIMA models were used for the decomposition and forecasting of dwelling time series. The Polish housing market, represented by selected local housing markets, still shows a growing trend despite the COVID-19 pandemic throughout 2020. The housing market may slow down in 2021, but the strong forecasted growth trends in Warszawa and Poznań suggest that there will be no significant price decline in Poland in the near future.

scholarly journals Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions

2005 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 67-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Himmelberg ◽  
Christopher Mayer ◽  
Todd Sinai
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
The State ◽  
User Cost ◽  
Time Pattern ◽  
Housing Costs ◽  
The Cost

How does one tell when rapid growth in house prices is caused by fundamental factors of supply and demand and when it is an unsustainable bubble? In this paper, we explain how to assess the state of house prices—both whether there is a bubble and what underlying factors support housing demand—in a way that is grounded in economic theory. In doing so, we correct four common fallacies about the costliness of the housing market. For a number of reasons, conventional metrics for assessing pricing in the housing market such as price-to-rent ratios or price-to-income ratios generally fail to reflect accurately the state of housing costs. To the eyes of analysts employing such measures, housing markets can appear “exuberant” even when houses are in fact reasonably priced. We construct a measure for evaluating the cost of home owning that is standard for economists—the imputed annual rental cost of owning a home, a variant of the user cost of housing—and apply it to 25 years of history across a wide variety of housing markets. This calculation enables us to estimate the time pattern of housing costs within a market. As of the end of 2004, our analysis reveals little evidence of a housing bubble.

scholarly journals Impact of Property Tax on Housing-Market Disequilibrium in Different Regions: Evidence from Taiwan for the period 1982–2016

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 4318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheng-Hau Lin ◽  
Jia-Hsun Li ◽  
Jing-Chzi Hsieh ◽  
Xianjin Huang ◽  
Jia-Tsong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Property Tax ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Tax System ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Market Disequilibrium

Although Taiwan has had a unique property tax system for a long time, oversupply and increasing prices have persisted in the regional market during recent decades. In order to shed light on this problem, this study investigated the impact of property taxation on housing markets in different regions from a disequilibrium viewpoint based on the stock-flow model. The panel data of 20 counties or cities in Taiwan for the period from 1982 to 2016 was examined. The empirical findings verified that housing price was the most important factor for influencing the long-run housing supply and demand in regions both with and without oversupply. The low interest rate policy was an important factor driving the long-run housing demand, but only in over-supply regions. The current property tax system cannot impact the long-run housing demand, only the short-run demand in both regions. Moreover, the property tax cannot effectively disturb the supply behavior in the long-run in both regions. This study also confirmed that housing-market disequilibrium existed in regions both with and without oversupply, making up the gap. The property tax’s impact on the adjustment speed to long-run equilibrium in over-supply regions was weaker than under-supply regions.

An analysis on housing affordability in Malaysian housing markets and the home buyers’ preference

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 375-392 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Soon ◽  
Consilz Tan
Keyword(s):  
Housing Policy ◽  
Affordable Housing ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Housing Affordability ◽  
Monthly Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Residential Units

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the housing preference and housing affordability in Malaysian housing markets. There is a lack of research on the gap between supply and demand of houses in this market. Urbanization has increased the demand of houses in urban areas. However, the high demand in residential units increases the housing price which causes the affordability level dropped. Besides, the residences that provided by developers do not meet the expectation of the home buyers. There are three attributes that examined in this research to understand the home buyers’ preference. Design/methodology/approach This paper provides quantitative analysis on the housing affordability and the home buyers’ preference. This paper presents the results on the home buyers’ housing affordability and buying preference on houses. In addition, the study further confirmed the significant relationship between monthly income and type of preferred house, as well as monthly income and range of housing affordability using cross-tabulation analysis. Findings The findings indicated that the housing price in the current market is not affordable by most of the homebuyers and there are certain attributes that important to home buyers which should not be neglected. Research limitations/implications This paper helps to shed light on the planning of Malaysian housing policy especially on the issue of providing affordable housing in urban areas. Practical implications Policymakers shall consider the elements of economics, social acceptance and feasibility of Malaysian housing policies to achieve sustainability in Malaysian housing markets. With the current government’s move to promote housing affordability amongst B40 income groups, local government and housing developers should work together in addressing housing demand in accordance to states and ensure that there is a more targeted housing policy. Social implications With the detailed analysis on the home buyers’ preference, it helps to promote sustainable housing developments in meeting basic housing needs and preference. Originality/value This is the first study to examine relationship between Malaysian housing affordability with monthly income and type of preferred house. In the meantime, the housing affordability is compared with mean housing price and type of perceived affordable house. The paper presented homebuyer’s preference in housing for the consideration of government and housing developers in providing affordable housing.

Research about the Disequilibrium Degree of Supplying and Demanding Market for Newly-Built Commodity-Housing from 1998 to 2011 in Xian

2013 ◽  
Vol 838-841 ◽  
pp. 3115-3118
Author(s):  
Jian Ping Yang ◽  
Fan Ming Meng
Keyword(s):  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
The State ◽  
Land Supply ◽  
Equilibrium Degree ◽  
Load Rate ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Spss Software ◽  
Disequilibrium Theory

Basing on the disequilibrium theory, taking use of SPSS software, taking advantaging of multiple linear regression methodology, this article analyzed the state of supply and demand of newly built commodity-housing market from1998 to 2011 in Xian, constructed the equation about land supply, housing price, load rate and housing-supply, and constructed the equation about per capita disposable income, and housing-demand. Basing on the supply-equation and demand-equation, this article obtained the state of supply and demand of new-built commodity- housing in Xian, at last, calculated the non-equilibrium degree and drew a conclusion.

scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 397-418
Author(s):  
Chin-Oh Chang ◽  
◽  
Shu-Mei Chen ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Home Ownership ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Poor Quality ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Vacancy Rate ◽  
Income Ratio ◽  
Holding Cost ◽  
Housing Vacancy

This paper discusses the contradicting phenomenon of housing demand in Taiwan. First, an introduction is given on the three primary characteristics of the housing market in Taiwan, which are a high housing vacancy rate, high housing prices and high home ownership. Secondly, we explore the motivation and preferences behind housing purchase. Since the housing price-income ratio continues to increase, unaffordable housing prices cause households to suffer from poor quality of life. The issues of housing justice are highlighted. Recently, the demographics and social values have rapidly changed. Therefore, even if homebuyers face unaffordable housing prices, they still prefer to buy housing instead of renting due to the traditional cultural belief that ¡§to have land is to have wealth¡¨. This has resulted in the phenomenon with high home ownership rate yet high housing prices. On the other hand, the low holding cost of housing and imbalance in urban and rural development perpetuate the high housing vacancy rate in the housing market. This results in an unhealthy housing market and misallocation of resources. Finally, recommendations for related government policy making are made based on the findings.

Long-run drivers and integration in interprovincial Canadian housing price relations

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijay Kumar Vishwakarma
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stochastic Trend ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

Purpose This paper aims to examine the integration of housing markets in Canada by examining housing price data (1999–2016) of six metropolitan areas in different provinces, namely, Calgary, Vancouver, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal and Halifax. The authors test for cointegration, driver cities of long-run relationships, long-run Granger causality and instantaneous causality in light of the global financial crisis (GFC) (2007–2008). Design/methodology/approach The authors use Johansen’s system cointegration approach with structural breaks. Moving average representation is used for common stochastic trend(s) analysis. Finally, the authors apply vector error correction model-based Granger causality and instantaneous causality. Findings Cities’ housing prices are in long-run equilibrium. Post-crisis Canadian housing markets became more integrated. The Calgary, Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal markets drive the Canadian housing market, leading all cities toward long-run equilibrium. Strong long-run Granger causality exists, but the authors observe no instantaneous causality. Price information takes time to disseminate, and long-run price adjustments play a significant role in causation. Practical implications The findings of cointegration increasing after the GFC and strong lead–lag can be used by investors to arbitrage and optimize portfolios. This can also help national and local policymakers in mitigating risk. Incorporating these findings can lead to better price forecasting. Originality/value This study presents many novelties for the Canadian housing market: it is the first to use repeat-sales regional pricing indices to test long-run behaviors, conduct common stochastic trend analyzes and present causality relations.

scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 375-396
Author(s):  
Gary Wai Chung Wong ◽  
◽  
Lok Sang Ho ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Price Expectations ◽  
Price Expectation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Property Price ◽  
Explicit Consideration

This paper builds on the literature that shows policy often plays a key role in housing cycles. Using the cointegration approach which focuses on the supply and demand dynamics of the housing market, and with explicit consideration of housing price expectations proxied by the price-earning ratio in financial markets, this paper identifies two cointegrating relations: a long run demand-side relation that involves housing property price, interest rate, price expectation and income; and a supply-side relation that involves private housing completion, property price, interest rate, and building and land costs. Based on Hong Kong data from 1990 a£á¡§ 2012, which covers big cycles in the housing market, this paper suggests that policies to augment or restrain housing supply in the attempt to stabilize housing prices have been counterproductive.

Simulating transaction networks in housing markets

2000 ◽  
Vol 03 (01n04) ◽  
pp. 371-384
Author(s):  
Leslie Rosenthal
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Empirical Observation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Vacant Housing ◽  
First Time

Linked networks of transactors attempting to complete both the buying and selling of properties, often termed "housing chains", are conspicuous features within owner-occupied housing markets, often seen as a cause of severe delay to transaction completion. This paper introduces a bounded or limited rationality-based model of housing market transactions and examines the properties and predictions of the resultant system. Agent-based simulation is able to reproduce: a) the existence of chains of buyers and sellers observed in the housing market; b) the delays to transaction completion often noted; and c) the empirical observation that housing price series for first-time buyers and for new or vacant housing serially leads the series for existing, current owner-occupiers.

scholarly journals Booms and Busts in Housing Market and Health Outcomes for Older Americans

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dahai Yue ◽  
Ninez A Ponce
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Health Impacts ◽  
Price Dynamics ◽  
Housing Price Index ◽  
Housing Price Dynamics

Abstract Background and Objectives The U.S. housing market has experienced considerable fluctuations over the last decades. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of housing price dynamics on physical health, mental health, and health-related behaviors for older American outright owners, mortgaged owners, and renters. Research Design and Methods We drew longitudinal data from the 1992-2016 Health and Retirement Study and merged it to the five-digit ZIP-code level Housing Price Index. The analytic sample comprised 34,182 persons and 174,759 person-year observations. We used a fixed-effects model to identify the health impacts of housing price dynamics separately for outright owners, mortgaged owners, and renters. Results A 100% increase in Housing Price Index was associated with a 2.81 and 3.50 percentage points (pp) increase in the probability of reporting excellent/very good/good health status for mortgage owners and renters, respectively. It was also related to a lower likelihood of obesity (1.82 pp) for outright owners, and a less chance of obesity (2.85 pp) and smoking (3.03 pp) for renters. All of these relationships were statistically significant (p<0.05). Renters also experienced significantly decreased depression scores (-0.24), measured by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale, associated with the same housing price changes. Discussion and Implications Housing price dynamics have significant health impacts, and renters are more sensitive to fluctuations in the housing market. Our study rules out the wealth effect as the mechanism through which changes in housing prices affect older adults’ health. Our findings may inform policies to promote older adults’ health by investing in local area amenities and improving socioeconomic conditions.

scholarly journals The Private Housing Market Cyclical Price Dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. p173
Author(s):  
SUN, Jingbo ◽  
HO, Kim Hin / David
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Market Mechanism ◽  
Price Dynamics ◽  
Herd Behavior ◽  
Momentum Strategy ◽  
For Profit ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Private Housing ◽  
Housing Price Dynamics

Two types of heterogeneous investors (momentum and disposition) form a unique difference model to interpret housing price dynamics. Three parameters are crucial: auto-correlation, the rate of mean reversion and the contemporaneous adjustment towards long-term equilibrium price. For Singapore, we examine the dynamic structures that oscillate and/or diverge from equilibrium. Disposition investors predominate although the interaction between momentum and disposition investors acts as a key determinant of private housing price dynamics for a given time in a specific market. Key implication is that Singapore’s private housing market is low risk, offering stable returns owing to virtually no divergence even in the speculative 1990s. The best way to invest is to consider the momentum strategy and avoid the herd behavior for profit sustainability. For policy-makers, the Singapore private housing market is over-damped in the long run. Predominating disposition investors contribute to the market mechanism, which automatically adjusts private housing market prices. It is imperative to relax government intervention in Singapore’s private housing market to enhance its efficiency.

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