Tectonic Context and Possible Triggering of the 2019–2020 Puerto Rico Earthquake Sequence

An historically unprecedented seismic moment was released by crustal events of the 2019–2020 earthquake sequence near southwest Puerto Rico. The sequence involved at least two, and perhaps three interacting fault systems. The largest Mw 6.4 event was likely triggered by left lateral strike-slip events along the eastern extension of the North Boquerón Bay-Punta Montalva fault zone. The mainshock occurred in a normal fault zone that extends into a region where previous studies documented extensional deformation, beyond the Ponce fault and the Bajo Tasmanian fault. Coulomb stress changes by the mainshock may have triggered further normal-faulting aftershocks, left lateral strike-slip events in the region where these two fault zones interacted, and possibly right lateral strike-slip aftershocks along a third structure extending southward, the Guayanilla fault zone. Extension directions of the seismic sequence are consistently north-northwest–south-southeast-oriented, in agreement with the Global Navigation Satellite Systems-inferred motion direction of eastern Hispaniola relative to western Puerto Rico, and with crustal stress estimates for the overriding plate boundary zone.

Fluids Triggered the 2021 Mw 6.1 Yangbi Earthquake at an Unmapped Fault: Implications for the Tectonics at the Northern End of the Red River Fault

On 21 May 2021 a magnitude Mw 6.1 earthquake occurred in Yangbi region, Yunan, China, which was widely felt and caused heavy casualties. Imaging of the source region was conducted using our improved double-difference tomography method on the huge data set recorded by 107 temporary stations of ChinArray-I and 62 permanent stations. Pronounced structural heterogeneities across the rupture source region are discovered and locations of the hypocenters of the Yangbi earthquake sequence are significantly improved as the output of the inversion. The relocated Yangbi earthquake sequence is distributed at an unmapped fault that is almost parallel and adjacent (∼15 km distance) to the Tongdian–Weishan fault (TWF) at the northern end of the Red River fault zone. Our high-resolution 3D velocity models show significant high-velocity and low-VP/VS ratios in the upper crust of the rupture zone, suggesting the existence of an asperity for the event. More importantly, low-VS and high-VP/VS anomalies below 10 km depth are imaged underlying the source region, indicating the existence of fluids and potential melts at those depths. Upward migration of the fluids and potential melts into the rupture zone could have weakened the locked asperity and triggered the occurrence of the Yangbi earthquake. The triggering effect by upflow fluids could explain why the Yangbi earthquake did not occur at the adjacent TWF where a high-stress accumulation was expected. We speculate that the fluids and potential melts in the mid-to-lower crust might have originated either from crustal channel flow from the southeast Tibet or from local upwelling related to subduction of the Indian slab to the west.

Emergence of Low-Frequency Aftershocks of the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

ABSTRACT Low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) generally have relatively stronger spectral components in the lower frequency range compared with what is expected for regular earthquakes based on their magnitude. LFEs generally occur in volcanic systems or deep (>∼15 km) in plate boundary fault zones; however, LFEs have also been observed in nonvolcanic, upper crustal settings. Because there are few studies that explore the spatiotemporal behaviors of LFEs in the shallow crust, it remains unclear whether the shallow-crustal LFEs reflect local attenuation in their immediate vicinity or differences in their source mechanism. Therefore, it is important to identify shallow-crustal LFEs and to characterize their spatiotemporal activity, which may also improve our understanding of LFEs. In this study, we focus on detecting shallow-crustal LFEs and explore the possible generation mechanisms. We analyze 29,646 aftershocks in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence, by measuring the frequency index (FI) to identify candidate low-frequency aftershocks (LFAs), while accounting for the magnitude dependency of the FI. Using small earthquakes (ML 1–3) recorded in the borehole stations to minimize the attenuation effects in near-surface layers, we identify 68 clear LFAs in total. Based on their distribution and comparisons with other seismic parameters measured by Trugman (2020), the LFAs possess distinct features from regular events in the same depths range, including low corner frequencies and low stress drops. Events in the close vicinity of LFAs exhibit lower average FI values than regular aftershocks, particularly if the hypocentral distance between an LFA and its neighbors is less than 1 km. Our results suggest that LFAs are related to local heterogeneity or a highly fractured fault zone correlated with an abundance of cross faults induced by the aftershock sequence at shallow depths. Zones of high pore-fluid pressure in intensely fractured fault zones could cause the bandlimited nature of LFAs and LFEs in general.

Large fractal dimension of chaotic at tractor for earthquake sequence near Nurek reservoir

Fractal dimension of the chaotic attractor for earthquake sequence in Nurek dam based on 22.000 earthquakes detected during the period 1976-87 has been studied for this total period of observations as well as for the period from December 1977 to December 1987. The second period excluded increased seismic activity during second stage of filling the reservoir. Large fractal dimensions of the chaotic at tractor of 8.3 and 7.3 were found for the respective period which suggests the complexity of earthquake .dynamics in this region as compared to Koyna reservoir.

Postseismic Relaxation Following the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence

ABSTRACT The 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence involved predominantly right-lateral strike slip on a northwest–southeast-trending subvertical fault in the 6 July M 7.1 mainshock, preceded by left-lateral strike slip on a northeast–southwest-trending subvertical fault in the 4 July M 6.4 foreshock. To characterize the postseismic deformation, we assemble displacements measured by Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar. The geodetic measurements illuminate vigorous postseismic deformation for at least 21 months following the earthquake sequence. The postseismic transient deformation is particularly well constrained from survey-mode GPS (sGPS) in the epicentral region carried out during the weeks after the mainshock. We interpret these observations with mechanical models including afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and mantle asthenosphere. During the first 21 months, up to several centimeters of horizontal motions are measured at continuous GPS and sGPS sites, with amplitude that diminishes slowly with distance from the mainshock rupture, suggestive of deeper afterslip or viscoelastic relaxation. We find that although afterslip involving right-lateral strike slip along the mainshock fault traces and their deeper extensions reach a few decimeters, most postseismic deformation is attributable to viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and mantle. Within the Basin and Range crust and mantle, we infer a transient lower crust viscosity several times that of the mantle asthenosphere. The transient mantle asthenosphere viscosity is ∼1.3×1017 Pa s, and the adjacent Central Valley transient mantle asthenosphere viscosity is ∼7×1017 Pa s, about five times higher and consistent with an asymmetry in postseismic horizontal motions across the mainshock surface rupture.

Economics of disaster recovery and earthquake insurance: Five essays on New Zealand

<p>The Canterbury earthquake sequence (2010-2011) was the most devastating catastrophe in New Zealand‘s modern history. Fortunately, in 2011 New Zealand had a high insurance penetration ratio, with more than 95% of residences being insured for these earthquakes. This dissertation sheds light on the functions of disaster insurance schemes and their role in economic recovery post-earthquakes. The first chapter describes the demand and supply for earthquake insurance and provides insights about different public-private partnership earthquake insurance schemes around the world. In the second chapter, we concentrate on three public earthquake insurance schemes in California, Japan, and New Zealand. The chapter examines what would have been the outcome had the system of insurance in Christchurch been different in the aftermath of the Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES). We focus on the California Earthquake Authority insurance program, and the Japanese Earthquake Reinsurance scheme. Overall, the aggregate cost of the earthquake to the New Zealand public insurer (the Earthquake Commission) was USD 6.2 billion. If a similar-sized disaster event had occurred in Japan and California, homeowners would have received only around USD 1.6 billion and USD 0.7 billion from the Japanese and Californian schemes, respectively. We further describe the spatial and distributive aspects of these scenarios and discuss some of the policy questions that emerge from this comparison. The third chapter measures the longer-term effect of the CES on the local economy, using night-time light intensity measured from space, and focus on the role of insurance payments for damaged residential property during the local recovery process. Uniquely for this event, more than 95% of residential housing units were covered by insurance and almost all incurred some damage. However, insurance payments were staggered over 5 years, enabling us to identify their local impact. We find that night-time luminosity can capture the process of recovery; and that insurance payments contributed significantly to the process of local economic recovery after the earthquake. Yet, delayed payments were less affective in assisting recovery and cash settlement of claims were more effective than insurance-managed repairs. After the Christchurch earthquakes, the government declared about 8000 houses as Red Zoned, prohibiting further developments in these properties, and offering the owners to buy them out. The government provided two options for owners: the first was full payment for both land and dwelling at the 2007 property evaluation, the second was payment for land, and the rest to be paid by the owner‘s insurance. Most people chose the second option. Using data from LINZ combined with data from Stats NZ, the fourth chapter empirically investigates what led people to choose this second option, and how peer effect influenced the homeowners‘ choices. Due to climate change, public disclosure of coastal hazard information through maps and property reports have been used more frequently by local government. This is expected to raise awareness about disaster risks in local community and help potential property owners to make informed locational decision. However, media outlets and business sector argue that public hazard disclosure will cause a negative effect on property value. Despite this opposition, some district councils in New Zealand have attempted to implement improved disclosure. Kapiti Coast district in the Wellington region serves as a case study for this research. In the fifth chapter, we utilize the residential property sale data and coastal hazard maps from the local district council. This study employs a difference-in-difference hedonic property price approach to examine the effect of hazard disclosure on coastal property values. We also apply spatial hedonic regression methods, controlling for coastal amenities, as our robustness check. Our findings suggest that hazard designation has a statistically and economically insignificant impact on property values. Overall, the risk perception about coastal hazards should be more emphasized in communities.</p>

Effect of the Kaikōura Earthquake on Velocity Changes In and Around the Ruptured Region: A Noise Cross-Correlation Approach

<p>Seismic velocity changes before and after large magnitude earthquakes carry information about damage present within the faults in the surrounding region. In this thesis, temporal velocity changes are measured before and after the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake using ambient noise interferometry between 2012 - 2018. This period contains the Mw 7.8 2016 Kaikoura earthquake as well as the 2013 Cook Strait earthquake sequence and a few deep large magnitude earthquakes in 2015 - 2016. Three primary objectives are identified: (1) investigate seismic velocity changes in the Kaikōura region and their connection to the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake to try and determine if there was a change before/after the earthquake, (2) determine how this change varied across the region, and (3) consider if ambient noise can lead to improved detection and understanding of geological hazard. The primary approach used to measure velocity changes in the Kaikōura region involved cross correlating noise recorded by seismic stations across the region. Velocity changes are sought by averaging the best result from multiple onshore station pairs. A secondary approach was also used, in which specific station pairs were averaged to determine if there were more localised velocity changes over more specific regions. This was to determine if the velocity changes observed following the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake occurred over the entire ruptured region. Following the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake a velocity decrease of 0.24±0.02% was observed on the average of the vertical-vertical components for eight stations. The remaining eight cross-component pairs showed a smaller seismic decrease with an average value of 0.22±0.05%. After the decrease following the Kaikōura earthquake, there is a steady velocity increase of 0.13±0.02% over a one-and-a-half-year period. This indicates that prior to the earthquake, seismic velocity was at a steady state until it was perturbed by the Kaikōura earthquake, and seismic velocities rapidly decreased over all stations. Across the region, stations with a longer interstation distance and further away from ruptured faults had a smaller decrease in velocity than station pairs with a smaller interstation distance that were closer to ruptured faults. We interpret the velocity decrease following the Kaikōura earthquake as a result of cracks opening during the earthquake. The velocity increase following the earthquake is indicative of the cracks slowly healing. The Cook Strait earthquake sequence that occurred in 2013 did not cause any velocity changes at the stations used in this thesis. This has been interpreted to be because the changes were too small compared to the background noise or the stations were not recording during the time of the earthquake sequence. Two other decreases were also observed in the region following two deep earthquakes in April 2015 (Mw 6.2, depth = 52km) and February 2016 (Mw 5.7, depth = 48km). Both of these events resulted in a small seismic decrease of 0.1±0.02%. Although these earthquakes were close to seismic stations when they occurred, they were much deeper and had a smaller magnitude than the Kaikōura earthquake so did not cause a large velocity decrease. By understanding what causes velocity changes it is possible to have an improved understanding of the geological hazard in the region.</p>

Economics of disaster recovery and earthquake insurance: Five essays on New Zealand

<p>The Canterbury earthquake sequence (2010-2011) was the most devastating catastrophe in New Zealand‘s modern history. Fortunately, in 2011 New Zealand had a high insurance penetration ratio, with more than 95% of residences being insured for these earthquakes. This dissertation sheds light on the functions of disaster insurance schemes and their role in economic recovery post-earthquakes. The first chapter describes the demand and supply for earthquake insurance and provides insights about different public-private partnership earthquake insurance schemes around the world. In the second chapter, we concentrate on three public earthquake insurance schemes in California, Japan, and New Zealand. The chapter examines what would have been the outcome had the system of insurance in Christchurch been different in the aftermath of the Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES). We focus on the California Earthquake Authority insurance program, and the Japanese Earthquake Reinsurance scheme. Overall, the aggregate cost of the earthquake to the New Zealand public insurer (the Earthquake Commission) was USD 6.2 billion. If a similar-sized disaster event had occurred in Japan and California, homeowners would have received only around USD 1.6 billion and USD 0.7 billion from the Japanese and Californian schemes, respectively. We further describe the spatial and distributive aspects of these scenarios and discuss some of the policy questions that emerge from this comparison. The third chapter measures the longer-term effect of the CES on the local economy, using night-time light intensity measured from space, and focus on the role of insurance payments for damaged residential property during the local recovery process. Uniquely for this event, more than 95% of residential housing units were covered by insurance and almost all incurred some damage. However, insurance payments were staggered over 5 years, enabling us to identify their local impact. We find that night-time luminosity can capture the process of recovery; and that insurance payments contributed significantly to the process of local economic recovery after the earthquake. Yet, delayed payments were less affective in assisting recovery and cash settlement of claims were more effective than insurance-managed repairs. After the Christchurch earthquakes, the government declared about 8000 houses as Red Zoned, prohibiting further developments in these properties, and offering the owners to buy them out. The government provided two options for owners: the first was full payment for both land and dwelling at the 2007 property evaluation, the second was payment for land, and the rest to be paid by the owner‘s insurance. Most people chose the second option. Using data from LINZ combined with data from Stats NZ, the fourth chapter empirically investigates what led people to choose this second option, and how peer effect influenced the homeowners‘ choices. Due to climate change, public disclosure of coastal hazard information through maps and property reports have been used more frequently by local government. This is expected to raise awareness about disaster risks in local community and help potential property owners to make informed locational decision. However, media outlets and business sector argue that public hazard disclosure will cause a negative effect on property value. Despite this opposition, some district councils in New Zealand have attempted to implement improved disclosure. Kapiti Coast district in the Wellington region serves as a case study for this research. In the fifth chapter, we utilize the residential property sale data and coastal hazard maps from the local district council. This study employs a difference-in-difference hedonic property price approach to examine the effect of hazard disclosure on coastal property values. We also apply spatial hedonic regression methods, controlling for coastal amenities, as our robustness check. Our findings suggest that hazard designation has a statistically and economically insignificant impact on property values. Overall, the risk perception about coastal hazards should be more emphasized in communities.</p>

Effect of the Kaikōura Earthquake on Velocity Changes In and Around the Ruptured Region: A Noise Cross-Correlation Approach

<p>Seismic velocity changes before and after large magnitude earthquakes carry information about damage present within the faults in the surrounding region. In this thesis, temporal velocity changes are measured before and after the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake using ambient noise interferometry between 2012 - 2018. This period contains the Mw 7.8 2016 Kaikoura earthquake as well as the 2013 Cook Strait earthquake sequence and a few deep large magnitude earthquakes in 2015 - 2016. Three primary objectives are identified: (1) investigate seismic velocity changes in the Kaikōura region and their connection to the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake to try and determine if there was a change before/after the earthquake, (2) determine how this change varied across the region, and (3) consider if ambient noise can lead to improved detection and understanding of geological hazard. The primary approach used to measure velocity changes in the Kaikōura region involved cross correlating noise recorded by seismic stations across the region. Velocity changes are sought by averaging the best result from multiple onshore station pairs. A secondary approach was also used, in which specific station pairs were averaged to determine if there were more localised velocity changes over more specific regions. This was to determine if the velocity changes observed following the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake occurred over the entire ruptured region. Following the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake a velocity decrease of 0.24±0.02% was observed on the average of the vertical-vertical components for eight stations. The remaining eight cross-component pairs showed a smaller seismic decrease with an average value of 0.22±0.05%. After the decrease following the Kaikōura earthquake, there is a steady velocity increase of 0.13±0.02% over a one-and-a-half-year period. This indicates that prior to the earthquake, seismic velocity was at a steady state until it was perturbed by the Kaikōura earthquake, and seismic velocities rapidly decreased over all stations. Across the region, stations with a longer interstation distance and further away from ruptured faults had a smaller decrease in velocity than station pairs with a smaller interstation distance that were closer to ruptured faults. We interpret the velocity decrease following the Kaikōura earthquake as a result of cracks opening during the earthquake. The velocity increase following the earthquake is indicative of the cracks slowly healing. The Cook Strait earthquake sequence that occurred in 2013 did not cause any velocity changes at the stations used in this thesis. This has been interpreted to be because the changes were too small compared to the background noise or the stations were not recording during the time of the earthquake sequence. Two other decreases were also observed in the region following two deep earthquakes in April 2015 (Mw 6.2, depth = 52km) and February 2016 (Mw 5.7, depth = 48km). Both of these events resulted in a small seismic decrease of 0.1±0.02%. Although these earthquakes were close to seismic stations when they occurred, they were much deeper and had a smaller magnitude than the Kaikōura earthquake so did not cause a large velocity decrease. By understanding what causes velocity changes it is possible to have an improved understanding of the geological hazard in the region.</p>