Earthquake weather and climate change: Should we stress about the forecast?

ABSTRACT Relationships between the weather and earthquakes have been suspected for over 2400 yr. However, scientific evidence to support such relationships has grown only since the 1980s. Because faults in Earth’s crust are generally regarded as critically stressed, small changes in stress and pore-fluid pressure brought about by rainfall, snow, and atmospheric pressure and temperature variations have all been proposed to modulate seismicity at local and regional scales. Elastic static stress changes as low as 0.07 kPa and pore-fluid pressure changes as low as 0.5 kPa have been proposed to naturally trigger earthquakes. In the UK, the spatial distributions of onshore earthquakes and rainfall are highly nonuniform and may be related; the wetter and most naturally seismically active areas occur on the west side of the country. We found significant spatial and temporal relationships between rainfall amount and the number of earthquakes for 1980–2012, suggesting larger volumes of rainfall promote earthquake nucleation. Such relationships occur when human-induced seismicity is included or excluded, indicating that meteorological conditions can also modulate seismicity induced by subsurface anthropogenic activities such as coal mining. No significant relationships were observed for monthly time lags, suggesting that the triggering effect of rainfall in the UK is near-instantaneous or occurs within 1 mo. With global climate changing rapidly and extreme weather events occurring more frequently, it is possible that some global regions may also experience changes in the spatial and temporal occurrence of earthquakes in response to changes in meteorologically induced stress perturbations.

Spatio-temporal distribution of shallow very-low-frequency earthquakes between December 2020 and January 2021 in Kumano-nada, Nankai subduction zone, detected by a permanent seafloor seismic network

We estimate the hypocenter locations and the centroid moment tensor solutions of the shallow very-low-frequency earthquake (sVLFE) activity that occurred in the Kumano-nada region of the Nankai Trough megathrust zone in central Japan from December 2020 to January 2021. Using seafloor observation data, we examined the detailed spatio-temporal distribution of the sVLFE activity. During this episode, the activity area was within the vicinity in which the sVLFE activity has been observed in the past and can be divided into two major parts. The sVLFE activity started from the eastern side and remained there for the first 5 days and then migrated to the western side via secondary expansion. The eastern active area is located just below the outer ridge and coincides with the location where the paleo-Zenith Ridge subducted. The western activity area is centered between the outer wedge and the outer ridge with the primary active area being at the outer wedge. Comparing the activity in the eastern and western areas, the eastern side is more active, but the individual moment releases on this side are smaller than those on the western side. This may indicate a difference in the fluid pressure along the plate boundary between the eastern and western areas. After the second expansion of the active area, we observed several migration patterns within the expanded area with a faster velocity than those of the initial and second expansions. The direction of these migrations is opposite to that of the first and second expansions. This indicates that the fluid pressure and/or stress level in the sVLFE generation region changed with time within this episode. Furthermore, many waveforms with sVLFE characteristics were observed at only one or a few observation points near the trough axis in the middle to latter half of January 2021. This indicates the occurrence of small-scale sVLFEs in the vicinity of the trough axis at the end of this sVLFE episode. Graphical Abstract

Prediction Analysis of Induced Casing Deformation of Horizontal Well in Fractured Shale Reservoir: Case Study of Weiyuan Gasfield

Casing deformation (CD) is a major challenge for shale gas development in Weiyuan gasfield, natural fracture (NF) slippage is one of the main causes of CD in Weiyuan gas filed. In order to study the mechanism and regularity of NF slippage induced CD, a wellbore shear stress calculation model and a CD degree prediction model are established. And results show that, the approach angle and ground principal stress difference have significant influence on wellbore shear stress, high wellbore shear stress occurs when wellbore orientation is perpendicular to the NF trend. Wellbore shear stress increases with the increase of fracture fluid pressure and NF area, improving casing strength or cementing quality has limited effect on reducing the risk of CD. The smaller the young's modulus, the higher the CD degree, Poisson's ratio has limited effect on CD degree. NF approach and fracture fluid pressure determines the value of CD degree. Field case shows that reasonable fracturing technology to control fracture net pressure and wellbore position arrangement are helpful for reducing CD risk, and the model proposed in this paper can be used to predict CD risk and calculate the CD degree.

Multilayer microfluidic platform for the study of luminal, transmural, and interstitial flow

Efficient delivery of oxygen and nutrients to tissues requires an intricate balance of blood, lymphatic, and interstitial fluid pressures, and gradients in fluid pressure drive the flow of blood, lymph, and interstitial fluid through tissues. While specific fluid mechanical stimuli, such as wall shear stress, have been shown to modulate cellular signaling pathways along with gene and protein expression patterns, an understanding of the key signals imparted by flowing fluid and how these signals are integrated across multiple cells and cell types in native tissues is incomplete due to limitations with current assays. Here, we introduce a multi-layer microfluidic platform (MLTI-Flow) that enables the culture of engineered blood and lymphatic microvessels and independent control of blood, lymphatic, and interstitial fluid pressures. Using optical microscopy methods to measure fluid velocity for applied input pressures, we demonstrate varying rates of interstitial fluid flow as a function of blood, lymphatic, and interstitial pressure, consistent with computational fluid dynamics models. The resulting microfluidic and computational platforms will provide for analysis of key fluid mechanical parameters and cellular mechanisms that contribute to diseases in which fluid imbalances play a role in progression, including lymphedema and solid cancer.

Piezoresistive Conductive Microfluidic Membranes for Low-Cost On-Chip Pressure and Flow Sensing

Over the last two decades, microfluidics has received significant attention from both academia and industry, and researchers report thousands of new prototype devices each year for use in a broad range of environmental, pharmaceutical, and biomedical engineering applications. While lab-on-a-chip fabrication costs have continued to decrease, the hardware required for monitoring fluid flows within microfluidic devices themselves remains expensive and often cost prohibitive for researchers interested in starting a microfluidics project. As microfluidic devices become capable of handling complex fluidic systems, low-cost, precise and real time pressure and flow rate measurement capabilities has become increasingly important. While many labs use commercial platforms and sensor, these solutions can often cost thousands of dollars and can be too bulky for on-chip use. Here we present a new inexpensive and easy -to-use piezoresistive pressure and flow sensor that can be easily integrated into existing on-chip microfluidic channels. The sensor consists of PDMS-Carbon black conductive membranes and uses an impedance analyzer to measure impedance change due fluid pressure. The sensor costs several orders of magnitude less than existing commercial platforms and can monitor local fluid pressures and calculate flow rates based on pressure gradient.

Numerical and Experimental Studies on Hydro-Forming of a Thin Metallic Disc

This paper deals with the hydro-forming of a flat thin metallic disc to achieve a forward domed disc which will be subsequently adopted to manufacture a rupture disc. The plastic deformation induced by the hydraulic energy is numerically simulated through an isotropic hardening plasticity model using a non-linear explicit finite element analysis (FEA). The variation in disc’s central deformation, thickness, equivalent plastic stress and equivalent plastic strain with respect to the applied hydraulic pressure are determined from FEA simulations. The hydro-forming setup is then designed and manufactured, and the metallic disc is experimented under hydro-forming process. The reduction in thickness due to stretching of the thin disc is evaluated from experiment and simulation and a close agreement is found. This research attempt helped in finalizing the hydro-forming fluid pressure, the feasibility and the accuracy of practically achieving the desired geometry of the metallic disc. The near-fixidity effects on abrupt variation in sheet thickness and plastic strain are well captured through simulations which are very difficult to be studied through hydro-forming experiments.

Emergence of Low-Frequency Aftershocks of the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

ABSTRACT Low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) generally have relatively stronger spectral components in the lower frequency range compared with what is expected for regular earthquakes based on their magnitude. LFEs generally occur in volcanic systems or deep (>∼15 km) in plate boundary fault zones; however, LFEs have also been observed in nonvolcanic, upper crustal settings. Because there are few studies that explore the spatiotemporal behaviors of LFEs in the shallow crust, it remains unclear whether the shallow-crustal LFEs reflect local attenuation in their immediate vicinity or differences in their source mechanism. Therefore, it is important to identify shallow-crustal LFEs and to characterize their spatiotemporal activity, which may also improve our understanding of LFEs. In this study, we focus on detecting shallow-crustal LFEs and explore the possible generation mechanisms. We analyze 29,646 aftershocks in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence, by measuring the frequency index (FI) to identify candidate low-frequency aftershocks (LFAs), while accounting for the magnitude dependency of the FI. Using small earthquakes (ML 1–3) recorded in the borehole stations to minimize the attenuation effects in near-surface layers, we identify 68 clear LFAs in total. Based on their distribution and comparisons with other seismic parameters measured by Trugman (2020), the LFAs possess distinct features from regular events in the same depths range, including low corner frequencies and low stress drops. Events in the close vicinity of LFAs exhibit lower average FI values than regular aftershocks, particularly if the hypocentral distance between an LFA and its neighbors is less than 1 km. Our results suggest that LFAs are related to local heterogeneity or a highly fractured fault zone correlated with an abundance of cross faults induced by the aftershock sequence at shallow depths. Zones of high pore-fluid pressure in intensely fractured fault zones could cause the bandlimited nature of LFAs and LFEs in general.

Mud Flow Dynamics at Gas Seeps (Nirano Salse, Italy)

The Nirano Salse, known since the Roman Times, are one of the most beautiful and scenic mud volcanoes areas of Italy with thousands of visitors every year. In this work, we apply hydrogeological techniques to characterize mud levels in the Salse by means of GPS-RTK positioning and continuous level logging within mud conduits. Our results suggest that different mud levels in mud volcanoes clusters are due to the different gas-liquid ratio in the conduits and not necessarily exclude interconnection at depth, a hypothesis, on the other hand, that seems strengthened by mud level time series correlations. The presence of shallow aquifers at a depth of 5 to 30 m is also supported by our field data. These shallow aquifers may provide a temporary storage for the ascending gas and when fluid pressure in these aquifers exceeds the tensional strength of the sedimentary rock, leakage of fluids to the surface would occur.

Empty Sella and Unilateral Sixth Nerve Palsy in a Pediatric Patient with Idiopathic Intracranial Hypertension

Purpose: We report the case of a child with idiopathic intracranial hypertension who presented with binocular papillary edema and monocular sixth cranial nerve palsy accompanied by empty sella syndrome evident on brain magnetic resonance imaging.Case summary: A 9-year-old, normal-weight male patient visited the emergency room complaining of headache and diplopia 4 days in duration. The alternative prism cover test revealed esotropia of 16 prism diopters and a -1 right lateral gaze limitation. A fundus examination revealed papilledema and peripapillary hemorrhages in both eyes, and a visual field examination an enlarged, physiological blind spot in the right eye. Brain magnetic resonance imaging revealed elevated cerebrospinal fluid pressure, an empty sella, and posterior scleral flattening. We diagnosed and treated idiopathic intracranial hypertension. After 4 months, the papilledema and peripapillary hemorrhages of both eyes resolved, and the right lateral gaze limitation improved. The empty sella improved on brain magnetic resonance imaging, and we noted no recurrence 8 months after treatment.Conclusions: If a child with suspected idiopathic intracranial hypertension visits a hospital, but it is difficult to perform a lumbar puncture, brain magnetic resonance imaging should be scheduled. If abnormalities are found, these help to determine the course of disease.