Surrounded and threatened: how neighborhood composition reduces ethnic voting through intimidation

Ethnic voting is an important phenomenon in the political lives of numerous countries. In the present paper, we propose a theory explaining why ethnic voting is more prevalent in certain localities than in others and provide evidence for it. We argue that local ethnic geography affects ethnic voting by making voters of ethnicity that finds itself in the minority fear intimidation by their ethnic majority neighbors. We provide empirical evidence for our claim using the data from round 4 of the Afrobarometer survey in Ghana to measure the voters’ beliefs that they are likely to face intimidation during electoral campaigns. Using geocoded data from rounds three and four of the Afrobarometer, as well as data from the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey, we find no evidence for local public goods provision as an alternative mechanism.

Voter demographic change will challenge US parties

The changing ethnic geography of voters is making new demands of political parties

THE MODERN ETHNIC GEOGRAPHY OF UZBEKISTAN

Spatial analysis of the population ethnic structure is a poorly developed area of socio-geographical research in Uzbekistan. The authors of the article are the first to develop a multi-level scheme of ethno-geographical zoning of Uzbekistan based on the current statistical data on the ethnic composition of the population in the republic. These statistical materials are the only source of information on the ethnic structure of the population of the country and its regions, taking into account the fact that the census in Uzbekistan has not been conducted after 1989. In the course of research, the methodological foundations of ethno-geographical zoning of Uzbekistan were developed, in particular, its principles, criteria, and taxonomic units. Ethno-geographical zoning was carried out in accordance with the grid of administrative-territorial division based on spatial grouping of rural areas and cities of regional and republican subordination; 33 types of ethnic environments were distinguished. Zoning is three-level and includes three taxonomic stages: 4 ethnogeographic provinces, 6 ethnogeographic districts and 32 ethnogeographic areas. In addition, there were identified ‘through’ spatial units − ethnogeographic tiers: upper (mountain), middle (foothill-plain) and lower (desert-oasis). The main ethnogeographic boundaries within the territory of Uzbekistan, tied to the orographic and landscape boundaries, were determined. The features of the population ethnic structure in all the ethnogeographic provinces, districts and areas are characterized. An ethno-geographical zoning map of the republic has been compiled.

Obstacle to Peace? Ethnic Geography and Effectiveness of Peacekeeping

Under what conditions does peacekeeping reduce one-sided violence in civil wars? This article argues that local sources of violence, particularly ethnic geography, affect peacekeeping effectiveness. Existing studies focus on the features of individual missions, yet curbing one-sided violence also depends on peacekeepers’ capacity to reduce the opportunities and incentives for violence. Moving from the idea that territorial control is a function of ethnic polarization, the article posits that peacekeepers are less effective against one-sided violence where power asymmetries are large (low polarization) because they (1) create incentives for escalation against civilians and (2) are less effective at separating/monitoring combatants. The UN mission in Sierra Leone from 1997 to 2001 is examined to show that UN troops reduce one-sided violence, but their effectiveness decreases as power asymmetries grow.

Electoral Systems and Ethnic Minority Representation

Every democratic process short of unanimity produces opinion minorities. Political divisions along anchored demographic characteristics like language, religion, race, or ethnicity challenge pluralist models of governance by threatening to entrench the exclusion of minority groups from political power. Especially when attuned to ethnic geography, electoral engineering through manipulation of the electoral system and other rules governing the electoral process, such as boundary delimitation, reserved seats, ballot-access requirements, and ethnic party bans, can help promote either inclusion or exclusion of minorities. Ensuring long-term interethnic peace has proved more difficult. Scholars continue to grapple with how to ensure minority inclusion without freezing existing divisions.

Local Ethnic Geography, Expectations of Favoritism, and Voting in Urban Ghana

African democracies are increasingly urban. While ethnicity is generally correlated with vote choice, recent research suggests there may be less ethnic voting in cities. But I show that voting for ethnically affiliated parties is as common in some neighborhoods in urban Ghana as in rural areas, while virtually non-existent in other neighborhoods elsewhere within the same city. This intra-urban variation is not explained by differences in the salience of ethnic identities or other individual-level characteristics of voters themselves. Instead, it is influenced by the diversity and wealth of the local neighborhoods in which parties and voters interact. These neighborhood characteristics change otherwise similar voters’ expectations of the benefits they will receive from an ethnically affiliated party when living in different places, producing intra-urban differences in the importance of ethnicity for vote choice.