A Non-ergodic Spectral Acceleration Ground Motion Model for California Developed with Random Vibration Theory

A new approach for creating a non-ergodic PSA ground-motion model (GMM) is presented which account for the magnitude dependence of the non-ergodic effects. In this approach, the average PSA scaling is controlled by an ergodic PSA GMM, and the non-ergodic effects are captured with non-ergodic PSA factors, which are the adjustment that needs to be applied to an ergodic PSA GMM to incorporate the non-ergodic effects. The non-ergodic PSA factors are based on EAS non-ergodic effects and are converted to PSA through Random Vibration Theory (RVT). The advantage of this approach is that it better captures the non-ergodic source, path, and site effects through the small magnitude earthquakes. Due to the linear properties of Fourier Transform, the EAS non-ergodic effects of the small events can be applied directly to the large magnitude events. This is not the case for PSA, as response spectrum is controlled by a range of frequencies, making PSA non-ergodic effects depended on the spectral shape which is magnitude dependent. Two PSA non-ergodic GMMs are derived using the ASK14 (Abrahamson et al., 2014) and CY14 (Chiou and Youngs, 2014) GMMs as backbone models, respectively. The non-ergodic EAS effects are estimated with the LAK21 (Lavrentiadis et al., In press) GMM. The RVT calculations are performed with the V75 (Vanmarcke, 1975) peak factor model, the Da0.05−0.85 estimate of AS96 (Abrahamson and Silva, 1996) for the ground-motion duration, and BT15 (Boore and Thompson, 2015) oscillator-duration model. The California subset of the NGAWest2 database (Ancheta et al., 2014) is used for both models. The total aleatory standard deviation of the two non-ergodic PSA GMMs is approximately 30 to 35% smaller than the total aleatory standard deviation of the corresponding ergodic PSA GMMs. This reduction has a significant impact on hazard calculations at large return periods. In remote areas, far from stations and past events, the reduction of aleatory variability is accompanied by an increase of epistemic uncertainty.

Selection of random vibration theory procedures for the NGA-East project and ground-motion modeling

Traditional ground-motion models (GMMs) are used to compute pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) from future earthquakes and are generally developed by regression of PSA using a physics-based functional form. PSA is a relatively simple metric that correlates well with the response of several engineering systems and is a metric commonly used in engineering evaluations; however, characteristics of the PSA calculation make application of scaling factors dependent on the frequency content of the input motion, complicating the development and adaptability of GMMs. By comparison, Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) represents ground-motion amplitudes that are completely independent from the amplitudes at other frequencies, making them an attractive alternative for GMM development. Random vibration theory (RVT) predicts the peak response of motion in the time domain based on the FAS and a duration, and thus can be used to relate FAS to PSA. Using RVT to compute the expected peak response in the time domain for given FAS therefore presents a significant advantage that is gaining traction in the GMM field. This article provides recommended RVT procedures relevant to GMM development, which were developed for the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-East project. In addition, an orientation-independent FAS metric—called the effective amplitude spectrum (EAS)—is developed for use in conjunction with RVT to preserve the mean power of the corresponding two horizontal components considered in traditional PSA-based modeling (i.e., RotD50). The EAS uses a standardized smoothing approach to provide a practical representation of the FAS for ground-motion modeling, while minimizing the impact on the four RVT properties ( zeroth moment, [Formula: see text]; bandwidth parameter, [Formula: see text]; frequency of zero crossings, [Formula: see text]; and frequency of extrema, [Formula: see text]). Although the recommendations were originally developed for NGA-East, they and the methodology they are based on can be adapted to become portable to other GMM and engineering problems requiring the computation of PSA from FAS.

Modification of Random Vibration Theory for the Near-fault Region

Standard random vibration theory (RVT) methods for estimating the horizontal spectral acceleration (PSA) amplitudes given the Fourier spectral amplitude (FAS) and ground-motion duration underestimate the PSA values for near-fault ground motions from large magnitudes. An empirical model that is unbiased for near-fault ground motions is developed using the statistical moments of the FAS and the duration as model input parameters, similar to standard RVT, but with a modification to also include magnitude and distance as input parameters. The data set used for the regression includes strong-motion recordings from active crustal regions in the NGA-West2 Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) database from California earthquakes (M3.0-7.25) and global earthquakes (M5.0 – 7.9). The zeroth, first, and second spectral moments of the FAS of the 5%-damped oscillator response are used in the empirical model. The scaling with the moments of the FAS replaces the peak factor terms used in RVT. A parametric model for the 5-80% duration that depends on magnitude and distance is also developed to simplify the application of the model. Compared to the standard RVT approach, the conditional model significantly improves the estimation of near-fault PSA values estimated from the FAS. The conditional model is appropriate for use in converting non-ergodic FAS GMMs to non-ergodic PSA GMMs.

NGA-West2 Empirical Fourier and Duration Models to Generate Adjustable Response Spectra

Adjustment of median ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from one region to another region is one of the major challenges within the current practice of seismic hazard analysis. In our approach of generating response spectra, we derive two separate empirical models for a) Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) and b) duration of ground motion. To calculate response spectra, the two models are combined within the random vibration theory (RVT) framework. The models are calibrated on recordings obtained from shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. We use a subset of NGA-West2 database with M3.2–7.9 earthquakes at distances 0–300 km. The NGA-West2 database expanded over a wide magnitude and distance range facilitates a better constraint over derived models. A frequency-dependent duration model is derived to obtain adjustable response spectral ordinates. Excellent comparison of our approach with other NGA-West2 models implies that it can also be used as a stand-alone model.