Renewable Minigrid Electrification in Off-Grid Rural Ghana: Exploring Households Willingness to Pay

Renewable energy minigrids hold significant prospects for Africa’s energy sector and its economic development in general. The government of Ghana has established pilot renewable minigrids in five off-grid communities as a testing ground for the electrification of over 600 existing rural communities that cannot be electrified via the national grid. Although there is evidence on willingness to pay (WTP) values for renewable-generated electricity in some developing countries, little is known about households’ WTP for renewable-based electricity in Ghana and, in particular, about renewable minigrids for rural electrification. This paper provides one of the first WTP estimates for renewable-based electricity for rural electrification in a developing economy context such as Ghana. Using data from a contingent valuation survey undertaken in all five pilot renewable minigrid project communities, we found that rural households are willing to pay an average of 30 GHC/month (≈5 USD/month) for high-quality renewable-powered electricity services, which is twice the amount they are currently paying based on the Uniform National Tariffs. The hypothetical bias is addressed by conducting a survey among active users of the minigrids. The starting point bias is reduced by employing random starting bids. The respondents are willing to pay between 9 and 11% of their discretionary incomes to cover the cost of accessing reliable renewable-powered electricity in the rural, off-grid communities in Ghana. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications of these findings regarding the development of tariff regulations and business models for renewable minigrids in the rural, off-grid sector.

EXPRESS: Prior information use and response caution in perceptual decision-making: No evidence for a relationship with autistic-like traits

Interpreting the world around us requires integrating incoming sensory signals with prior information. Autistic individuals have been proposed to rely less on prior information and make more cautious responses than non-autistic individuals. Here we investigated whether these purported features of autistic perception vary as a function of autistic-like traits in the general population. We used a diffusion model framework, whereby decisions are modelled as noisy evidence accumulation processes towards one of two bounds. Within this framework, prior information can bias the starting point of the evidence accumulation process. Our pre-registered hypotheses were that higher autistic-like traits would relate to reduced starting point bias caused by prior information and increased response caution (wider boundary separation). 222 participants discriminated the direction of coherent motion stimuli as quickly and accurately as possible. Stimuli were preceded with a neutral cue (square) or a directional cue (arrow). 80% of the directional cues validly predicted the upcoming motion direction. We modelled accuracy and response time data using a hierarchical Bayesian model in which starting point varied with cue condition. We found no evidence for our hypotheses, with starting point bias and response caution seemingly unrelated to AQ scores. Alongside future research applying this paradigm to autistic individuals, our findings will help refine theories regarding the role of prior information and altered decision-making strategies in autistic perception. Our study also has implications for models of bias in perceptual decision-making, as the most plausible model was one that incorporated bias in both decision-making and sensory processing.

Prior information use and response caution in perceptual decision-making: No evidence for a relationship with autistic-like traits

Interpreting the world around us requires integrating incoming sensory signals with prior information. Autistic individuals have been proposed to rely less on prior information and make more cautious responses than non-autistic individuals. Here we investigated whether these purported features of autistic perception vary as a function of autistic-like traits in the general population. We used a diffusion model framework, whereby decisions are modelled as noisy evidence accumulation processes towards one of two bounds. Within this framework, prior information can bias the starting point of the evidence accumulation process. Our pre-registered hypotheses were that higher autistic-like traits would relate to reduced starting point bias caused by prior information and increased response caution (wider boundary separation). 222 participants discriminated the direction of coherent motion stimuli as quickly and accurately as possible. Stimuli were preceded with a neutral cue (square) or a directional cue (arrow). 80% of the directional cues validly predicted the upcoming motion direction. We modelled accuracy and response time data using a hierarchical Bayesian model in which starting point varied with cue condition. We found no evidence for our hypotheses, with starting point bias and response caution seemingly unrelated to AQ scores. Alongside future research applying this paradigm to autistic individuals, our findings will help refine theories regarding the role of prior information and altered decision-making strategies in autistic perception. Our study also has implications for models of bias in perceptual decision-making, as the most plausible model was one that incorporated bias in both decision-making and sensory processing.

Norm compliance affects perceptual decisions through modulation of a starting point bias

Adaptive decisions in social contexts depend on both perceptual information and social expectations or norms. These are potentially in conflict when certain choices are beneficial for an individual, but societal rules mandate a different course of action. To resolve such a conflict, the reliability of information has to be balanced against potentially deleterious effects of non-compliance such as ostracism. In this study, we systematically investigated how interactions between perceptual and social influences affect decision-relevant cognitive processes. In a direction-of-motion discrimination task, participants received perceptual information alongside information on other players' choices. In addition, we created conflict scenarios where players’ choices affected other participants' monetary rewards dependent on whether their choices were in line or against the opinion of the other players. Importantly, we altered the strength of this manipulation in two separate experiments by contrasting motivations of either preventing harm or providing a benefit to others. Behavioural analyses and computational models of perceptual decisions showed that participants successfully integrated perceptual with social information. Participants' reliance on social information was effectively modulated in conflict situations. Critically, these effects were augmented when the strength of social norms was increased, indexing conditions under which social norms effectively influence decisions. These results inform theories of social influence by providing an account of how higher order goals like social norm compliance affect perceptual decisions.