It is often taken as a matter of established fact that the difference between a good scientist and a great scientist is the ability to distinguish in advance which problems are going to be the important ones. I think this belief is a reflection of the fact that history is written by the winners: Professor X chooses a problem and with much hard work solves it, but it turns out not to have important consequences, so it and he are forgotten; Professor Y does the same, but this time the result spurs further work or even opens new and unforeseeable regions of science, so he naturally feels that his “intuition” was correct. But how do you distinguish his intuition from a lucky guess? I suggest that a study of the history of science tells us that luck plays a significant part. Consider, for example, Lord Rutherford’s discovery of the nuclear atom—perhaps the most important experimental discovery of the twentieth century, in that it led to quantum theory and the whole of nuclear physics. To set the stage: By the first few years of the twentieth century it had been determined that there were three kinds of radioactive emissions, termed alpha, beta, and gamma rays. The gamma rays were electromagnetic in nature, the beta rays were electrons, and Rutherford had just shown that the alpha rays were in fact helium; or rather, as he put it, the alpha rays were a stream of particles zipping along at roughly 10,000 miles per second which, after they slowed down and lost their electric charge, became helium atoms. (He didn’t realize at the time that they “lost” their positive electric charge by picking up negatively charged electrons.) What next? Well, the natural thing to do was to see how these radioactive emissions interacted with matter. This had already been done with the beta and gamma radiations: a stream of these radiations had been directed at various targets, and such parameters as their depth of penetration and ionizing capabilities had been measured, with no particular insights gained (an example of Professor X’s work).