SITE QUALITY ESTIMATIONS BASED ON THE GENERALIZED ALGEBRAIC DIFFERENCE APPROACH: A CASE STUDY IN ÇANKIRI FORESTS

ABSTRACT In this study, it is aimed that the dynamic site index models were developed for Crimean Pine stands in Sarikaya-Cankiri forests located in middle northern Turkey. The data for this study are 153 sample trees obtained from the Crimean Pine stands. In modeling relationships between height and age of dominant or co-dominant trees, some dynamic site index equations such as Chapman-Richards (M1, M2, M3), Lundqvist (M4 and M6), Hossfeld (M5), Weibull (M7) and Schumacher (M8) based on the Generalized Algebraic Difference Approach (GADA) were used. The estimations for these eight-dynamic site index model parameters with well as various statistical values were obtained using the nonlinear regression technique. Among these equations, the Chapman-Richards’s equation, M3, was determined to be the most successful model, with accounted for 89.03 % of the total variance in height-age relationships with MSE: 1.7633, RMSE: 1.3279, SSE: 1165.6, Bias: -0.0380. After determination of the best predictive model, ARMA (1, 1) autoregressive prediction technique was used to account autocorrelation problems for time-series height measurements. When ARMA autoregressive prediction technique was applied to the Chapman-Richards function for solving autocorrelation problem, these success statistics were improved as SSE: 868.7, MSE: 1.3183, RMSE: 1.1482, Bias: -0.06369, R2: 0.918. Also, Durbin-Watson statistics displayed that autocorrelation problem was solved by the use of ARMA autoregressive prediction technique; DW test value=1.99, DW<P=0.5622, DW>P=0.4378. The dynamic site index model that was developed has provided results compatible with the growth characteristics expected in the modeling of height-age relations, such as polymorphism, multiple asymptote, and base-age invariance.

Dominant height growth and dynamic site index models for Crimean pine in the Kastamonu–Taşköprü region of Turkey

Some dynamic site index models based on the generalized algebraic difference approach (GADA) were fitted for Crimean pine (Pinus nigra J.F. Arnold subsp. pallasiana (Lamb.) Holmboe) stands in Taşköprü, Turkey. Data were obtained from 132 dominant trees representing the wide range of site quality in the region. Nonlinear regression analysis and a second-order continuous-time autoregressive error structure were applied. After autoregressive modeling, the fitted models were evaluated both statistically and graphically. The best results were obtained with the dynamic site index model derived from the Bertalanffy–Richards base equation, accounting for about the 99% of the total variance in height–age relationships in dominant trees, with an Akaike information criterion (AIC) value of 119.55 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.5446. The selected base-age invariant dynamic site index curves provided the polymorphism with multiple asymptotes and other realistic height growth patterns.