A Comprehensive Comparison of Artificial Neural Networks and Some Regression Modeling Techniques on Dominant Height Predictions of Oriental Spruce in a Mixed Forest, the Northeast Turkey

Background: Dominant height is needed for assessing silvicultural practices in sustainable wood production management. Also, dominant height is used as an important explanatory variable in forest growth and yield models. This paper introduces the evaluation for Artificial Neural Networks and Some Regression Modeling Techniques on Dominant Height Predictions of Oriental Spruce in a Mixed Forest, the Northeast Turkey. Methods: In this study, 873 height-age pairs were obtained from oriental spruce trees in a mixed forest stand. Nonlinear mixed-effects models (NLMEs), autoregressive models (ARM), dummy variable method (DVM), and artificial neural networks (ANNs) were compared to predict dominant height growth. Results: The best predictive model was NLME with single random parameter (root mean square error, RMSE: 0.68 m). The results showed that NLMEs outperformed ARM (RMSE: 1.09 m), DVM in conjunction with ARM (RMSE: 1.09 m), and ANNs (RMSE: from 1.11 to 2.40 m) in majority of the cases. Whereas considering variations among observations by random parameter(s) significantly improved predictions of dominant height, taking into account correlated error terms by autoregressive correlation parameter(s) enhanced slightly the predictions. ANNs generally underperformed compared to NLMEs, ARM, and DVM with ARM. Conclusion: All regression techniques fulfilled the desirable characteristics such as sigmoidal pattern, polymorphism, multiple asymptote, base-age invariance, and inflection point. However, ANNs could not most of these features excluding sigmoidal pattern. Accordingly, ANNs seem to insufficient to assure biological growth assumptions regarding dominant height growth.

GROWTH AND YIELD OF EVEN-AGED Cupressus lusitanica PLANTATIONS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Plantation forestry in southern Brazil demands additional timber species to a higher market differentiation by providing high quality timber and exploitation of market niches. Cupressus lusitanica has long been recognized for this purpose but, until now, it was not properly region-wide quantified in terms of growth and yield. The present study delivers the lacking quantitative approach, which may encourage the commercial use of the species. With this study it was aimed at collecting and processing quantitative data from all known C. lusitanica stands in southern Brazil. Inventories were carried out (60 ha, 6-39 years of age) in order to model the development of dominant height (h100), basal area, volume and dominant diameter (d100). Dominant height was the basis for site quality evaluation, delivering site index curves, which, together with the commercial volume of the stands, allowed yield modelling. A wide amplitude of dominant height growth was detected (10-30 m at 20 years), indicating a great site quality variation. At age of 20 years, commercial volumes of 110 and 620 m³ ha-1 were observed for site indexes of 14 and 26, respectively, equivalent to a maximum of 6-31 m³ ha-1 year-1 at ages between 16-18 years. Results demonstrated in a robust manner that C. lusitanica has a high potential for cultivation in southern Brazil. Thus, offering the opportunity of market differentiation by promoting market niches whose demands timber for special solid end-uses.

SITE INDEX IN EUCALYPTUS STANDS APPLYING ORDINARY KRIGING: AN APPROACH WITH DIFFERENT MODELS AND METHODS OF CLASSIFICATION

The objective of this work was to evaluate the efficiency of models and methods to obtain the site index, associated with ordinary kriging, to classify productive capacity in eucalyptus stands. Thus, the site quality was performed considering the traditional modeling in clonal stands (2,119 hectares) located in Minas Gerais state, Brazil. 170 plots of 400m2 were randomly allocated, representing a sampling intensity of 0.32%. The dominant height of trees (Assmann) was measured at 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, and 84 months. The site index (S) was estimated by the guide curve and algebraic difference methods, using the models of Schumacher, Chapman and Richards, and Bailey and Clutter. 136 plots were used in the fit and 34 plots in the predictive validation. The spatial dependence of site index was evaluated by experimental semivariogram and adjustment of exponential, spherical, and gaussian models. After confirming the spatial dependence, ordinary kriging was performed to spatialize the site index. For the predictive validation, the dominant height values at 72 months were used. The algebraic difference method provided excellent estimates of site index, which showed spatial dependence in all adjustments, from moderate to strong. In most cases, the gaussian model was the most accurate. It is concluded that the algebraic difference method was more efficient and the site index showed strong spatial dependence at all ages, regardless of the model used. Thus, regression models for site index estimation can be used in combination with ordinary kriging techniques.

A Dynamic Stand Growth Model System for Loblolly Pine Responding to Mid-Rotation Treatments

Intensive loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantation management in the southeastern United States includes mid-rotation silvicultural practices (MRSP) like thinning, fertilization, competitive vegetation control, and their combinations. Consistent and well-designed long-term studies considering interactions of MRSP are required to produce accurate projections and evaluate management decisions. Here we use longitudinal data from the regional Mid-Rotation Treatment study established by the Plantation Management Research Cooperative (PMRC) at the University of Georgia across the southeast U.S. to fit and validate a new dynamic model system rooted in theoretical and biological principles. A Weibull pdf was used as a modifier function coupled with the basal area growth model. The growth model system and error projection functions were estimated simultaneously. The new formulation results in a compatible and consistent growth and yield system and provides temporal responses to treatment. The results indicated that the model projections reproduce the observed behavior of stand characteristics. The model has high predictive accuracy (the cross-validation variance explained was 96.2%, 99.7%, and 98.6%; and the prediction root mean square distance was 0.704 m, 19.1 trees ha−1, and 1.03 m2ha−1 for dominant height (DH), trees per hectare (N), and basal area (BA), respectively), and can be used to project the current stand attributes following combinations of MRSP and with different thinning intensities. Simulations across southern physiographic regions allow us to conclude that the most overall ranking of MRSP after thinning is fertilization + competitive vegetation control (Fert + CVC) > fertilization only (Fert) > competitive vegetation control only (CVC), and Fert + CVC show less than additive effect. Because of the model structure, the response to treatment changes with location, age of application, and dominant height growth as indicators of site quality. Therefore, the proposed model adequately represents regional growth conditions.

Modeling dominant height growth using permanent plot data for Pinus brutia stands in the Eastern Mediterranean region

Aim of the study: At current, forest management in the Eastern Mediterranean region is largely based on experience rather than on management plans. To support the development of such plans, this study develops and compares site index equations for pure even-aged Pinus brutia stands in Syria using base-age invariant techniques that realistically describe dominant height growth.Materials and methods: Data on top height and stand age were obtained in 2008 and 2016 from 80 permanent plots capturing the whole range of variation in site conditions, stand age and stand density. Both the Algebraic Difference Approach (ADA) and the Generalized Algebraic Difference Approach (GADA) were used to fit eight generalized algebraic difference equations in order to identify the one which describes the data best. For this, 61 permanent plots were used for model calibration and 19 plots for validation.Main results: According to both biological plausibility and model accuracy, the so-called Sloboda equation based on the GADA approach showed the best performance.Research highlights: The study provides a solid classification and comparison of Pinus brutia stands growing in the Eastern Mediterranean region and can thus be used to support sustainable forest management planning.Keywords: site index; Generalized Algebraic Difference Approach (GADA); Sloboda equation.

Generalized or general mixed-effect modelling of tree morality of Larix gmelinii subsp. principis-rupprechtii in Northern China

Tree mortality models play an important role in predicting tree growth and yield, but existing mortality models for Larix gmelinii subsp. principis-rupprechtii, an important species used for regeneration and afforestation in northern China, have overlooked potential regional influences on tree mortality. This study used data acquired from 102 temporary sample plots (TSPs) in natural stands of Prince Rupprecht larch in the state-owned Guandi Mountain Forest (n = 67) and state-owned Boqiang Forest (n = 35) in northern China. To model stand-level tree mortality, we compared seven model forms of county data. Three continuous (dominant height, plot mean diameter, and basal area per hectare) and one dummy variable with two levels (region) were used as fixed effects variables. Tree morality variations caused by forest blocks were accounted for using forest blocks as a random effect in selected models. Results showed that tree mortality significantly positively correlated with stand basal area and dominant height, but negatively correlated with stand mean diameter. Incorporating both the dummy variables and random effects into the tree mortality models significantly increased the fitting improvements, and Hurdle Poisson mixed-effects model showed the most attractive fit statistics (largest R2 and smallest RMSE) when employing leave-one-out cross-validation. These mixed-effects dummy variable models will be useful for accurately predicting Larix tree mortality in different regions.

Influence of forest stand characteristics on physical, mechanical properties and chemistry of chestnut wood

Site conditions and forest management affect dendrometric parameters of chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) coppices, but there is modest knowledge on the effect of stand dendrometric characters on physical and mechanical wood characteristics. The aim of this study was to verify these relationships in chestnut coppices that were 12–14 years old. Wood density, compression and bending strength, shrinkages were measured on shoots of five different stand in a vulcanic site in Monte Amiata (Central – Italy). Investigated stands differ in number of stools/ha and dominant height, diameter/basal area of the shoots. The main difference in the physical characters among the stands is density. The initial results of the study showed that physical, mechanical wood characters are more dependent by the shoot than by the site. There is a positive relationships between the number of stools/ha and density and a negative one among shoot dominant height and basal area with wood density. Spectroscopic profile by FTIR has not showed relevant differences among the stands. Wood anatomy has showed the breakpoint at cellular level.

DENSITY MANAGEMENT DIAGRAM FOR Eucalyptus grandis W. Hill. ex Maiden STANDS CONTROLLED BY DOMINANT HEIGHT

Density management diagram for eucalyptus stands controlled by dominant height. The present study aimed to elaborate Density Management Diagrams (DMD) for Eucalyptus grandis W. Hill. ex Maiden stands including the dominant height. Data were obtained from permanent plots installed in the Centro Oriental Riograndense region and the Porto Alegre Metropolitan area, both located in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. The models to describe the relationships between average volume, number of trees per hectare, mean diameter, and dominant height were assessed by the statistical criteria of coefficient of determination (R²), standard error of the estimate in percentage (Syx%), and graphical analysis of residuals. The developed DMD allows for a better control of stocks in the management of stands due to the strong relationship of dominant height with stand development site and forest yield.Keywords: Growth, Site index, Forest regulation, Yield.

Mean height or dominant height – what to prefer for modelling the site index of Estonian forests?

The availability of a large amount of data from reliable sources is important for forest growth modelling. A permanent plot where trees are repeatedly measured provides a clearer picture of stand alterations. Various factors, including forest management, affect forest growth and accuracy of its assessment. In Estonia, mean height as a regression height prediction at mean square diameter is commonly used in forest management practice. Alternatively, dominant height can be used. The main advantage of using dominant height instead of mean height is that the growth of dominant trees is not so strongly affected by stand density (thinning). The aim of our research was to investigate the difference between mean height and dominant height when used as stand height. The research was based on the Estonian Network of Forest Research Plots (ENFRP). As a result, we found that the average mean height change was significantly greater in the case of thinning when compared to undisturbed stand development, whereas, the average dominant height change in the case of thinning compared to undisturbed development was less significant. As a side result, we developed a regression model that can be used for calculating the dominant height of the main tree species using stand attributes (mean height, quadratic mean diameter and density) with a residual standard deviation of 0.466 m.