Abstract
BackgroundObjective response rate (ORR) under mRECIST criteria after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) has been identified as a surrogate endpoint of overall survival (OS). However, its optimal time-point remains controversial and may be influenced by tumor burden. We aim to investigate the surrogacy of initial/best ORR in relation to tumor burden. MethodsA total of 1549 eligible treatment-naïve patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), Child-Pugh score ≤7, and performance status score ≤1 undergoing TACE between January 2010 and May 2016 from 17 academic hospitals were retrospectively analyzed. ResultsBoth initial and best ORRs interacted with tumor burden defined as our previously proposed “six-and-twelve” criteria. Both initial and best ORRs could equivalently predict and correlated with OS in low (adjusted HR: 2.55 and 2.95, respectively, both P<0.001; R=0.84, P=0.035 and R=0.97, P=0.002, respectively) and intermediate tumor burden strata (adjusted HR: 1.81 and 2.22, respectively, both P<0.001; R=0.74, P=0.023, and R=0.9, P=0.002, respectively). For high strata, only best ORR exhibited qualified prognostic value (adjusted HR: 2.61, P<0.001) with a satisfying correlation (R=0.70, P=0.035), whereas initial ORR was not statistically significant (adjusted HR: 1.08 P=0.357; R=0.22, P=0.54). ConclusionsORR after TACE as a surrogate of OS is closely associated with tumor burden. For patients with low/intermediate tumor burden, initial ORR should be preferred over best ORR in its early availability upon similar sensitivity; whereas for patients with high tumor burden, best ORR has optimal sensitivity. Timing of OR assessment should be tailored according to tumor burden in future clinical trials and practice.