surrogate endpoint
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Author(s):  
Allon van Uitert ◽  
Elle C. J. van de Wiel ◽  
Jordache Ramjith ◽  
Jaap Deinum ◽  
Henri J. L. M. Timmers ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Posterior retroperitoneoscopic adrenalectomy (PRA) has several advantages over transperitoneal laparoscopic adrenalectomy (TLA) regarding operative time, blood loss, postoperative pain, and recovery. However, it can be a technically challenging procedure. To improve patient selection for PRA, we developed a preoperative nomogram to predict operative time. Methods All consecutive patients with tumors of ≤ 7 cm and a body mass index (BMI) of < 35 kg/m2 undergoing unilateral PRA between February 2011 and March 2020 were included in the study. The primary outcome was operative time as surrogate endpoint for surgical complexity. Using ten patient variables, an optimal prediction model was created, with a best subsets regression analysis to find the best one-variable up to the best seven-variable model. Results In total 215 patients were included, with a mean age of 52 years and mean tumor size of 2.4 cm. After best subsets regression analysis, a four-variable nomogram was selected and calibrated. This model included sex, pheochromocytoma, BMI, and perinephric fat, which were all individually significant predictors. This model showed an ideal balance between predictive power and applicability, with an R2 of 38.6. Conclusions A four-variable nomogram was developed to predict operative time in PRA, which can aid the surgeon to preoperatively identify suitable patients for PRA. If the nomogram predicts longer operative time and therefore a more complex operation, TLA should be considered as an alternative approach since it provides a larger working space. Also, the nomogram can be used for training purposes to select patients with favorable characteristics when learning this surgical approach.


Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Heuser ◽  
Sylvie D Freeman ◽  
Gert J Ossenkoppele ◽  
Francesco Buccisano ◽  
Christopher S Hourigan ◽  
...  

Measurable residual disease (MRD) is an important biomarker in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) that is used for prognostic, predictive, monitoring, and efficacy-response assessments. The European LeukemiaNet (ELN) MRD working party evaluates standardization and harmonization of MRD in an ongoing manner and has updated the 2018 ELN MRD recommendations based on significant developments in the field. New and revised recommendations were established during in-person and online meetings, and a two-stage Delphi poll was conducted to optimize consensus. All recommendations are graded by levels of evidence and agreement. Major changes include technical specifications for next generation sequencing (NGS)-based MRD testing and integrative assessments of MRD irrespective of technology. Other topics include use of MRD as a prognostic and surrogate endpoint for drug testing; selection of the technique, material, and appropriate time points for MRD assessment; and clinical implications of MRD assessment. In addition to technical recommendations for flow- and molecular- MRD analysis, we provide MRD thresholds and define MRD response, and detail how MRD results should be reported and combined if several techniques are used. MRD assessment in AML is complex and clinically relevant, and standardized approaches to application, interpretation, technical conduct, and reporting are of critical importance.


BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. e052138
Author(s):  
Olivier Aubert ◽  
Gillian Divard ◽  
Julio Pascual ◽  
Federico Oppenheimer ◽  
Claudia Sommerer ◽  
...  

ObjectivesDevelopment of pharmaceutical agents in transplantation is currently limited by long waits for hard endpoints. We applied a validated integrative risk-prognostication system integrative Box (iBox) as a surrogate endpoint to the TRANSFORM Study, a large randomised controlled trial, to project individual patient long-term kidney allograft survival from 1 year to 11 years after randomisation.DesignPost-hoc analysis of a randomised open-label controlled trial.SettingMulticentre study including 186 centres in 42 countries worldwide.Participants2037 de novo kidney transplant recipients.InterventionParticipants were randomised (1:1) to receive everolimus with reduced-exposure calcineurin inhibitor (EVR+rCNI) or mycophenolic acid with standard-exposure CNI (MPA+sCNI).Primary outcome measureThe iBox scores were computed for each participant at 1 year after randomisation using functional, immunological and histological parameters. Individual long-term death-censored allograft survival over 4, 6 and 11 years after randomisation was projected with the iBox risk-prognostication system.ResultsOverall, 940 patients receiving EVR+rCNI and 932 receiving MPA+sCNI completed the 1-year visit. iBox scores generated at 1 year yielded graft survival prediction rates of 90.9% vs 92.1%, 87.9% vs 89.5%, and 80.0% vs 82.4% in the EVR+rCNI versus MPA+sCNI arms at 4, 6, and 11 years post-randomisation, respectively (all differences below the 10% non-inferiority margin defined by study protocol). Inclusion of immunological and histological Banff diagnoses parameters in iBox scores resulted in comparable and non-inferior predicted graft survival for both treatments.ConclusionsThis proof-of-concept study provides the first application of a validated prognostication system as a surrogate endpoint in the field of transplantation. The iBox system, by projecting kidney allograft survival up to 11 years post-randomisation, confirms the non-inferiority of EVR+rCNI versus MPA+sCNI regimen. Given the current process engaged for surrogate endpoints qualification, this study illustrates the potential to fast track development of pharmaceutical agents.Trial registration numberTRANSFORM trial: NCT01950819.iBox prognostication system: NCT03474003.


Author(s):  
Jun Yin ◽  
Mohamed E Salem ◽  
Jesse G Dixon ◽  
Zhaohui Jin ◽  
Romain Cohen ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Disease-free survival with a 3-year median follow-up (3-year DFS) was validated as a surrogate for overall survival with a 5-year median follow-up (5-year OS) in adjuvant chemotherapy colon cancer (CC) trials. Recent data show further improvements in OS and survival after recurrence, in patients who received adjuvant FOLFOX. Hence, re-evaluation of the association between DFS and OS and determination of the optimal follow-up duration of OS to aid its utility in future adjuvant trials are needed. Methods Individual patient data from nine randomized studies conducted between 1998 and 2009 were included; three trials tested biologics. Trial-level surrogacy examining the correlation of treatment effect estimates of 3-year DFS with 5 to 6.5-year OS was evaluated using both linear regression (R2WLS) and Copula bivariate (R2Copula) models and reported with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). For R2, a value closer to 1 indicates a stronger correlation. Results Data from a total of 18,396 patients were analyzed (median age = 59 years; 54.0% male), with 54.1% having low-risk tumors (pT1-3 & pN1), 31.6% KRAS mutated, 12.3% BRAF mutated, and 12.4% microsatellite instability high/deficient mismatch repair tumors. Trial level correlation between 3-year DFS and 5-year OS remained strong (R2 =0.82, 95% CI = 0.67 to 0.98; R2 =0.92, 95% CI = 0.83 to 1.00) and increased as the median follow-up of OS extended. Analyses limited to trials that tested biologics showed consistent results. Conclusion Three-year DFS remains a validated surrogate endpoint for 5-year OS in adjuvant CC trials. The correlation was likely strengthened with 6 years of follow-up for OS.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurel Amber Sjodin Raffington ◽  
Peter Tanksley ◽  
Aditi Sabhlok ◽  
Liza Vinnik ◽  
Travis Triplett Mallard ◽  
...  

Children's cognitive functioning and educational performance are socially stratified. Social inequality, including classism and racism, may operate partly via epigenetic mechanisms that modulate neurocognitive development. Following preregistered analyses of data from 1,183 8- to 19-year-olds from the Texas Twin Project, we examined whether salivary DNA-methylation measures of inflammation (DNAm-CRP), cognitive functioning (Epigenetic-g), and pace of biological aging (DunedinPoAm) are socially stratified and associated with performance on tests of cognitive functions. We find that children growing up in more disadvantaged families and neighborhoods and children from marginalized racial/ethnic groups exhibit DNA-methylation profiles associated with higher chronic inflammation, lower cognitive functioning, and faster pace of biological aging. These salivary DNA-methylation profiles were associated with processing speed, general executive function, perceptual reasoning, verbal comprehension, reading, and math. Given that the DNA-methylation measures we examined were originally developed in adults, our results suggest that social inequalities may produce in children molecular signatures that, when observed in adults, are associated with chronic inflammation, advanced aging, and reduced cognitive function. Salivary DNA-methylation profiles might be useful as a surrogate endpoint in assessing the effectiveness of psychological and economic interventions that aim to reduce negative effects of childhood social inequality on lifespan development.


Breast Care ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Yi Zhang ◽  
Miao Liu ◽  
Houpu Yang ◽  
Shu Wang

<b><i>Objective:</i></b> To investigate physicians’ perception of the evidence of clinical trials on breast cancer. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> A survey was conducted by the Chinese Society of Breast Surgeons. We investigated the physicians’ perception of meaningful endpoints, appropriate follow-up duration, and clinically acceptable benefit through online questionnaires. <b><i>Results:</i></b> Among 278 validated questionnaires, the majority of the questions had no consistent answer. For local treatment, 30.6, 28.8, and 28.4% of participants regarded locoregional recurrence (LRR), disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) as the most meaningful endpoint, respectively, 47.5% believed that 5-year follow-up can alter clinical practice, and 34.5% thought it should be &#x3e;10 years. In the adjuvant setting, 45.7, 38.5, and 12.9% regarded DFS, OS, and LRR as the most meaningful endpoint, respectively, 52.5% thought that 10-year follow-up was solid, while 37.4% thought that 5-year follow-up was enough. In the advanced setting, 49.6, 24.1, and 23.7% considered progression-free survival, quality of life, and OS the most meaningful endpoint, respectively, and 39.6 and 28.8% considered that a follow-up of 1 year and 3 years, respectively, was meaningful. Similarly, the clinically acceptable absolute difference was inconsistent. <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> Most Chinese oncologists advocated that surrogate endpoints could be used in certain circumstances, though OS was the most reliable one in breast cancer studies. Doctors’ perceptions of follow-up time and magnitude of benefit vary widely, reflecting the fact that there are many unanswered questions about supporting the use of new cancer treatments; a common understanding needs to be reached, such as a very consensual surrogate endpoint and a meaningful sufficiently large therapeutic benefit.


Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria Wang ◽  
Curtis A. Hanson ◽  
Renee Tschumper ◽  
Connie Lesnick ◽  
Esteban Braggio ◽  
...  

E1912 was a randomized phase 3 trial comparing indefinite ibrutinib plus six cycles of rituximab (IR) to six cycles of fludarabine, cyclophosphamide and rituximab (FCR) in untreated younger patients with CLL. We describe measurable residual disease (MRD) levels in E1912 over time and correlate them with clinical outcome. Undetectable MRD rates (&lt; 1 CLL cell per 104 leukocytes) were 29.1%, 30.3%, 23.4% and 8.6% at 3, 12, 24 and 36 months for FCR, and significantly lower at 7.9%, 4.2% and 3.7% at 12, 24 and 36 months for IR, respectively. Undetectable MRD at 3, 12, 24 and 36 months was associated with longer progression-free survival (PFS) for the FCR arm with hazard ratios (MRD detectable / MRD undetectable) of 4.29 (95% CI 1.89 - 9.71), 3.91 (95% CI 1.39 - 11.03), 14.12 (95% CI 1.78 - 111.73), and not estimable (no events among those with undetectable MRD), respectively. For the IR arm, patients with detectable MRD did not have significantly worse PFS compared to those in whom MRD was undetectable; however, PFS was longer for those with MRD levels of less than 10-1 compared to those with MRD levels above this threshold. Our observations provide additional support for the use of MRD as a surrogate endpoint for PFS in patients receiving FCR. For patients on indefinite ibrutinib-based therapy, PFS did not differ significantly by undetectable MRD status, while those with MRD less than 10-1 tend to have longer PFS, although continuation of ibrutinib is very likely required to maintain treatment efficacy.


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