Jihadist violence in Sahel will persist in 2021

Significance The deployment of the UK troops comes at a time when jihadists attacks are intensifying across the Sahel amid an escalating internecine conflict between the al-Qaida-affiliated Group for Supporting Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). Impacts Mali’s coup is likely to distract the military leadership away from its core mandate to improve national security. The G5 Sahel Joint Force may continue to struggle to curb jihadist cross-border operations. The deployment of UK troops underscores the still strong commitment of Western governments to improving the security situation in the Sahel.

French presence will fail to stop Sahel violence

Significance The event, held in the French town of Pau, highlighted the six leaders’ alarm over jihadist violence in the Sahel, particularly recent large-scale attacks by the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). The summit produced little in terms of new concrete military and financial commitments and gave little emphasis to politics. Implicitly, the event appeared to be intended as a vehicle for Macron to get Sahelian leaders to publicly reaffirm their desire for a continued French military presence in their region. Impacts French-Nigerien operations and militia operations in Menaka in Mali could push jihadist operations elsewhere. Contention over France’s role in the Sahel may hurt the re-election prospects of Burkinabe President Roch Marc Christian Kabore in November. The creation of the Coalition for the Sahel seems to be partly an effort to reinvigorate the G5 Sahel Joint Force.

Central Mali violence risks wider spillover

Subject Ethnic violence. Significance More than 202,000 people have been displaced in central and northern Mali this year, according to a July assessment by the Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM), which coordinates humanitarian work. Levels of violence have nearly doubled, with 599 fatalities in the first half of 2019 compared with 333 in the same period last year, according to data from ACLED. In recognition of this, the UN Security Council has expanded the mandate of the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) to include stabilisation of Mali's increasingly restive central region. Impacts The security situation may increase the authorities’ bunker mentality and could empower northern actors to further sideline the state. Neither the UN nor France is likely to withdraw from Mali any time soon. The viability of the G5 Sahel Joint Force will eventually be called into question.

Mali may struggle to reinvigorate its peace process

Significance However, the current peace process appears to offer little prospect of overcoming the challenges faced in the fractious north and increasingly violent centre. Impacts The Algiers Accord faces strains as non-signatories proliferate, but with no viable alternative it will remain the main vehicle for peace. The G5 Sahel Joint Force may reduce its presence and visibility in combat zones, even as France puts more emphasis on it. The prime minister, who struck key deals with northern groups to facilitate elections, now faces the test of building deeper processes.