Mali may struggle to reinvigorate its peace process

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Viable Alternative ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Force ◽  
G5 Sahel Joint Force

Significance However, the current peace process appears to offer little prospect of overcoming the challenges faced in the fractious north and increasingly violent centre. Impacts The Algiers Accord faces strains as non-signatories proliferate, but with no viable alternative it will remain the main vehicle for peace. The G5 Sahel Joint Force may reduce its presence and visibility in combat zones, even as France puts more emphasis on it. The prime minister, who struck key deals with northern groups to facilitate elections, now faces the test of building deeper processes.

Jihadist violence in Sahel will persist in 2021

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Military Leadership ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Force ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Strong Commitment ◽  
G5 Sahel Joint Force ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Military

Significance The deployment of the UK troops comes at a time when jihadists attacks are intensifying across the Sahel amid an escalating internecine conflict between the al-Qaida-affiliated Group for Supporting Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). Impacts Mali’s coup is likely to distract the military leadership away from its core mandate to improve national security. The G5 Sahel Joint Force may continue to struggle to curb jihadist cross-border operations. The deployment of UK troops underscores the still strong commitment of Western governments to improving the security situation in the Sahel.

Demobilisation will test Mali peace process

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The North ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
Joachim Gauck ◽  
State Group ◽  
Regional Elections

Subject Prospects for peace in Mali Significance French Prime Minister Manuel Valls visited Bamako on February 18-19, just days after German President Joachim Gauck, to reiterate international support for Mali. Western governments are concerned about the threat from jihadist groups operating in the country's Saharan north and their potential for developing links with Islamic State group (ISG) in Libya. Despite the expanded terrorism threat, there have been some positive developments: the peace process in the north has taken major strides forward and decentralisation aimed to underpin peace has advanced. Impacts International partners will reinforce security efforts. To combat the risk of terrorism in Bamako, the authorities will encourage the public to report suspicious activity at community level. Regional elections will offer non-jihadist former rebel leaders a chance to assume a share of power locally.

Central Mali violence risks wider spillover

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Central Region ◽  
The State ◽  
Ethnic Violence ◽  
Response Mechanism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Force ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
G5 Sahel Joint Force ◽  
Humanitarian Work

Subject Ethnic violence. Significance More than 202,000 people have been displaced in central and northern Mali this year, according to a July assessment by the Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM), which coordinates humanitarian work. Levels of violence have nearly doubled, with 599 fatalities in the first half of 2019 compared with 333 in the same period last year, according to data from ACLED. In recognition of this, the UN Security Council has expanded the mandate of the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) to include stabilisation of Mali's increasingly restive central region. Impacts The security situation may increase the authorities’ bunker mentality and could empower northern actors to further sideline the state. Neither the UN nor France is likely to withdraw from Mali any time soon. The viability of the G5 Sahel Joint Force will eventually be called into question.

Sudan’s partial peace deal builds positive momentum

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Limited Resources ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Direct Role ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Liberation Movement ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Military ◽  
Significant Milestone

Significance The deal represents a significant milestone in both the peace process and the wider transition. However, it remains only a partial peace, given the absence of the main armed groups in Darfur (the Sudan Liberation Movement/Abdel Wahid al-Nur (SLM/AW)) and the ‘Two Areas’ (the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North/Abdel Aziz al-Hilu (SPLM-N/al-Hilu)). Impacts The prime minister may seek a more direct role in finalising the peace process, at the expense of Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo ‘Himedti’. Integration of rebel groups will expand the bloated military, already a major drain on limited resources. Sharing of natural resource revenues may spur tensions with the military, whose affiliated companies control major mines in conflict areas.

French presence will fail to stop Sahel violence

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Force ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
French Military ◽  
The Creation ◽  
G5 Sahel Joint Force

Significance The event, held in the French town of Pau, highlighted the six leaders’ alarm over jihadist violence in the Sahel, particularly recent large-scale attacks by the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). The summit produced little in terms of new concrete military and financial commitments and gave little emphasis to politics. Implicitly, the event appeared to be intended as a vehicle for Macron to get Sahelian leaders to publicly reaffirm their desire for a continued French military presence in their region. Impacts French-Nigerien operations and militia operations in Menaka in Mali could push jihadist operations elsewhere. Contention over France’s role in the Sahel may hurt the re-election prospects of Burkinabe President Roch Marc Christian Kabore in November. The creation of the Coalition for the Sahel seems to be partly an effort to reinvigorate the G5 Sahel Joint Force.

Mali election win presents opening for Keita rebound

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Dynamic Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Term Performance ◽  
Nominal Position

Significance Keita has secured a decisive second-round victory and will embark on his second term from a nominal position of strength. However, the result poses tough questions for his challenger, who must now prepare a campaign for the legislative polls due later this year. Impacts If Keita’s victory is confirmed, his second term will start on September 4. Keita must decide whether to retain Prime Minister Soumeylou Boubeye Maiga; campaign manager Bokary Treta is a possible alternative. Mali’s international partners were disappointed by Keita’s first-term performance and will urge a more dynamic approach in his second. Keita will now have to refocus on the peace process, stabilising central Mali and operationalising the new G5 joint military force.

Malian premier’s peace push may falter after elections

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
Frontier Region

Subject Developments ahead of the presidential elections. Significance Prime Minister Soumeylou Boubeye Maiga on March 26 completed a tour of the insecure northern and central regions. President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita has been accused of sluggishness in pushing the peace process in the north forward, but Maiga -- appointed in December -- has injected fresh momentum into the government’s approach. Keita is likely to stand for a second term in presidential elections scheduled in July. Impacts Restoring security in central Mali will be difficult, after years of violence that has fuelled inter-communal mistrust and resentments. The ADEMA party has yet to choose a presidential candidate -- if any -- and it is unclear whether it will support Keita in the elections. The G5 Sahel force should lead to a more focused military effort in the frontier region between Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.

The Israeli General Election of 1996 – Another Upheaval?

1996 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 449-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Capitanchik
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Life ◽  
Central Issue ◽  
Direct Election ◽  
Electoral Law ◽  
First Time

The Israeli General Election of 1996 Has Been Described as a ‘referendum’ on the Middle East peace process, the central issue in the campaign. However, important as it was, the outcome of the election was determined not so much by the issue of peace, as by a change in the electoral law providing for the direct election of the prime minister. On 29 May, for the first time, Israelis went to the polls to elect a prime minister as well as a new Knesset and the result was yet another upheaval in Israeli political life.

South Sudan peace process faces ingrained stagnation

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arms Embargo

Significance However, criticisms of the government’s attitude towards the deal are mounting, among the peace agreement’s signatories as well as international actors. Impacts Non-signatory groups are unlikely to join the deal, but some individuals or sub-groups may be co-opted with offers of money or positions. A UN arms embargo and US and European targeted sanctions will be maintained. Assessed humanitarian aid needs will remain high.

Canada-US ties will see fewer irritants under Biden

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Keystone Xl ◽  
Keystone Xl Pipeline

Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.

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