Jihadist violence in Sahel will persist in 2021

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Military Leadership ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Force ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Strong Commitment ◽  
G5 Sahel Joint Force ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Military

Significance The deployment of the UK troops comes at a time when jihadists attacks are intensifying across the Sahel amid an escalating internecine conflict between the al-Qaida-affiliated Group for Supporting Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). Impacts Mali’s coup is likely to distract the military leadership away from its core mandate to improve national security. The G5 Sahel Joint Force may continue to struggle to curb jihadist cross-border operations. The deployment of UK troops underscores the still strong commitment of Western governments to improving the security situation in the Sahel.

Al-Qaida core could keep control of Syria’s Idlib

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Leadership ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
Military Control ◽  
The Military ◽  
Outreach Initiative

Significance The last major rebel-held area in Syria, Idlib province is under the military control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a salafi-jihadist rebel alliance. Jaysh al-Ahrar, the largest non-al-Qaida faction in HTS, announced on September 13 it was leaving the organisation. This followed the resignation of one of HTS’s top clerics, Abdullah al-Muhaysini, after the leaking of telephone conversations in which the military leadership criticised him harshly. Impacts Renewed unity talks between mainstream rebel factions will encourage another round of pre-emptive attacks by HTS. Likely rejection of HTS’s outreach initiative by the mainstream opposition will empower the hawks within the group. Possible regime operations against HTS would be limited to peripheral strategic positions such as Jisr al-Shughur. US-backed and pro-Damascus forces will seek to avoid clashes around Deir ez-Zour city in their separate offensives against Islamic State. A Russian military presence will deter Turkey from attacking the Syrian Kurds in Afrin and elsewhere.

French presence will fail to stop Sahel violence

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Force ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
French Military ◽  
The Creation ◽  
G5 Sahel Joint Force

Significance The event, held in the French town of Pau, highlighted the six leaders’ alarm over jihadist violence in the Sahel, particularly recent large-scale attacks by the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). The summit produced little in terms of new concrete military and financial commitments and gave little emphasis to politics. Implicitly, the event appeared to be intended as a vehicle for Macron to get Sahelian leaders to publicly reaffirm their desire for a continued French military presence in their region. Impacts French-Nigerien operations and militia operations in Menaka in Mali could push jihadist operations elsewhere. Contention over France’s role in the Sahel may hurt the re-election prospects of Burkinabe President Roch Marc Christian Kabore in November. The creation of the Coalition for the Sahel seems to be partly an effort to reinvigorate the G5 Sahel Joint Force.

Sharif puts Pakistan army's India policy on back foot

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Militant Groups ◽  
The Military

Subject Civilian-military relationship. Significance In an apparently unprecedented and coordinated governmental move, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in parliament reportedly warned the military of growing international isolation faced by Pakistan due to its failure to suppress cross-border militant groups operating out of Pakistan. That the serious concern was shared publicly at a time when India-Pakistan tensions are rising is unusually bold for Pakistan's politicians. Such warnings have been given previously, reportedly by former President Asif Ali Zardari's government (2008-13), but always in private. Impacts Kashmir's 'jihadi infrastructure' will not be dismantled any time soon. Beijing and Washington are united in pressuring Pakistan's military to avoid escalation with India. Pakistan military's Afghan policy is unlikely to be amended.

Online extremism poses new threats to South-east Asia

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Suicide Bombings ◽  
The Military

Subject Online radicalisation. Significance On May 25, the Indonesian parliament unanimously passed stringent anti-terrorism laws allowing the military to be directly involved in counterterrorism operations. The vote followed a string of suicide bombings attributed to local jihadist networks that have pledged allegiance to Islamic State (IS). Jakarta joins other South-east Asian governments -- notably those of Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore -- in attempting to counter a new push in the region by IS, as it loses territory in Iraq and Syria. Impacts Rising anti-Shia sentiment in the region, a by-product of increased Saudi influence, will likely give IS new issues to exploit. The Rohingya crisis gives IS a regional boost, especially in terms of operations in Myanmar and more likely in Yangon than Rakhine State. Non-ideological, low-wage overseas workers, particularly from the Philippines and Indonesia, are most susceptible to IS.

Algerian army will try to guard fiefdom in transition

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Military Leadership ◽  
The Political ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Constitutional Order ◽  
Formal Power ◽  
The Military

Significance The military leadership has seized control of the political process, but has shown little interest in assuming formal power, often demonstrating sympathies with protesters while preserving the constitutional order. Impacts The prime minister and interim president may be pushed to quit as a concession. Elections planned for July 4 may be postponed if unrest grows. The economy may suffer as tourism will decline and foreign investors will hesitate to become involved in an uncertain energy sector.

Uzbek security service will be succession kingmaker

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Force ◽  
Security Service ◽  
Presidential Succession ◽  
State Group ◽  
Government Security

Subject Uzbekistan's SNB. Significance Uzbekistan's National Security Service (SNB), one of the least-reformed descendants of the Soviet KGB still in existence, has become a crucial buttress to the regime of President Islam Karimov. The SNB is the country's pre-eminent security body and has huge influence not only in government but also in business and industry. The SNB is a powerful and ruthless political force. It is at present able to control any challenges to the regime from the population or the elite, even though the risks of both are increasing as uncertainty over the presidential succession persists and Uzbekistan's economy suffers from Russia's slowdown. Impacts For the time being, the SNB will be the main recipient of government security-related funding. In the immediate future, it will be a far more powerful body than the army or police. Fears of an Afghanistan-related security crisis and Islamic State group recruiting may force closer working with Kazakhstan's KNB.

Turkey's Kurdish guerrilla war will not end soon

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Islamic State ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Guerrilla War ◽  
Turkish State ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Military

Significance This is one of the few successes the military have had on the ground since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ended the ceasefire with the PKK on July 24. Impacts The Turkish state will sustain heavy daily casualties inviting ever-stronger retaliation, although what shape this may take is not clear. Despite attacks on it from government politicians, the HDP will retain enough support to get into the next parliament. The struggle with Islamic State group will take second place in government eyes to fighting the PKK. There will be strains between the PKK and HDP, but probably no overt split between them ın the short term.

Philippines martial law likely to be extended

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Habeas Corpus ◽  
Martial Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance Proclamation 216 was made after Islamic State (IS)-linked Maute group militants attacked and occupied Marawi City on May 23. The president also suspended habeas corpus in Mindanao on May 24. Impacts Extending martial law in Mindanao would likely see further communist guerrilla attacks. Philippine security links with Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and the United States will deepen. Appeals against the Supreme Court's decision could be lodged but are unlikely to work. The military will gain increased political influence through martial law.

scholarly journals Introduction to the Symposium Edition of the Texas A&M Journal of Property Law and The United States Defense Industry

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Lisa A. Rich
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Defense Industry ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Property Law ◽  
Acquisition Process ◽  
Joint Force ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
The Military

On February 23, 2018, the Texas A&M Journal of Property Law held an innovative and informative symposium on the United States Defense Industry focused on the acquisition process from conception to deployment and the scientific, budgetary, political, and legal framework through which the United States joint force is forged. The symposium brought together stakeholders from academia, private and public sectors, and the military to explain, analyze, and assess the labyrinthine weapons acquisition system and its role-and impact-on national security.

Britain and Hong Kong: the 2019 protests and their aftermath

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Summers
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
National Security ◽  
Foreign Policy Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Colonial Legacy ◽  
British Policy ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Uk

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine British policy towards Hong Kong from the protests of 2019 through political controversies in 2020.Design/methodology/approachThe paper offers a foreign policy analysis based on a chronological account of the public interventions made by London from April 2019 to the passage of the national security law in the middle of 2020. It discusses the factors which contributed to the UK's positions and looks in more detail at an issue which relates to the British colonial legacy: the status of British National (Overseas) passport holders.FindingsThe paper argues that the UK's policy was influenced by a combination of factors: developments in Hong Kong, the implications of and perceptions about its historical position as the former colonial power, the growing influence of lobby groups in the UK and Hong Kong (especially in agenda setting), and (to a lesser extent) the UK's wider relations with China. In trying to balance these, British policy tended to be reactive rather than strategic. London generally took positions sympathetic to the protest movement and political opposition, characterised in the paper as “soft partisanship”, shifting to clear opposition to Beijing's approach when the National Security Law was announced.Social implicationsThe paper helps to understand international policy towards Hong Kong.Originality/valueThe paper offers the first account of British policy towards Hong Kong during this period and adds to the limited existing literature on the UK's Hong Kong policy over recent years. This case study sheds light on wider questions of international perceptions of developments in Hong Kong during a tumultuous period in the city's history and informs broader studies of foreign policymaking.

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