French presence will fail to stop Sahel violence

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Force ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
French Military ◽  
The Creation ◽  
G5 Sahel Joint Force

Significance The event, held in the French town of Pau, highlighted the six leaders’ alarm over jihadist violence in the Sahel, particularly recent large-scale attacks by the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). The summit produced little in terms of new concrete military and financial commitments and gave little emphasis to politics. Implicitly, the event appeared to be intended as a vehicle for Macron to get Sahelian leaders to publicly reaffirm their desire for a continued French military presence in their region. Impacts French-Nigerien operations and militia operations in Menaka in Mali could push jihadist operations elsewhere. Contention over France’s role in the Sahel may hurt the re-election prospects of Burkinabe President Roch Marc Christian Kabore in November. The creation of the Coalition for the Sahel seems to be partly an effort to reinvigorate the G5 Sahel Joint Force.

Jihadist violence in Sahel will persist in 2021

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Military Leadership ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Force ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Strong Commitment ◽  
G5 Sahel Joint Force ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Military

Significance The deployment of the UK troops comes at a time when jihadists attacks are intensifying across the Sahel amid an escalating internecine conflict between the al-Qaida-affiliated Group for Supporting Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). Impacts Mali’s coup is likely to distract the military leadership away from its core mandate to improve national security. The G5 Sahel Joint Force may continue to struggle to curb jihadist cross-border operations. The deployment of UK troops underscores the still strong commitment of Western governments to improving the security situation in the Sahel.

Al-Qaida core could keep control of Syria’s Idlib

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Leadership ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
Military Control ◽  
The Military ◽  
Outreach Initiative

Significance The last major rebel-held area in Syria, Idlib province is under the military control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a salafi-jihadist rebel alliance. Jaysh al-Ahrar, the largest non-al-Qaida faction in HTS, announced on September 13 it was leaving the organisation. This followed the resignation of one of HTS’s top clerics, Abdullah al-Muhaysini, after the leaking of telephone conversations in which the military leadership criticised him harshly. Impacts Renewed unity talks between mainstream rebel factions will encourage another round of pre-emptive attacks by HTS. Likely rejection of HTS’s outreach initiative by the mainstream opposition will empower the hawks within the group. Possible regime operations against HTS would be limited to peripheral strategic positions such as Jisr al-Shughur. US-backed and pro-Damascus forces will seek to avoid clashes around Deir ez-Zour city in their separate offensives against Islamic State. A Russian military presence will deter Turkey from attacking the Syrian Kurds in Afrin and elsewhere.

Rival governments risk permanent division of Yemen

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Major Change ◽  
Humanitarian Relief ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
The Creation ◽  
The Military

Subject Yemen partition prospects. Significance The August 6 launch by the Huthis and loyalists of former President Ali Abdallah Saleh of a joint ruling body to govern Yemen has led to the collapse of peace talks, and an escalation in the conflict with forces aligned to Saudi Arabia and the internationally recognised government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. The UN has said that the creation of the Supreme Political Council (SPC) violates Security Council resolutions on resolving the conflict. It also brings Yemen a step closer towards the creation of a new central government in Sana'a rivalling Hadi's government based in Aden. Impacts A new UN peace initiative is unlikely to succeed unless there is a major change in the military situation. Prolonged conflict in Yemen will distract Saudi focus and resources from its domestic economic reform programme. Large-scale humanitarian relief and reconstruction will only begin following a (currently unlikely) deal on a unity government.

Tension on China’s inland frontier may grow over time

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Return Home ◽  
Western Hegemony ◽  
Over Time

Significance Moscow is a key partner in opposing Western hegemony, but Pakistan is the closest thing China has to an ally and depends increasingly on Chinese support. Territorial and economic conflicts with India are pushing Delhi closer to Washington and Tokyo. Impacts Russia would probably oppose any attempt to increase China’s overt military presence in Central Asia. Despite the return home of militants from Islamic State territories in Syria and Iraq, the threat from radical Islamism remains low. Divergences of interest will not prevent China-Russia cooperation for now, but Beijing cannot rely on Moscow to defer to its wishes.

A new US-Iran war will play out in Iraq and beyond

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Action ◽  
Personal Networks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Islamic Revolution ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
The Us

Significance The operation, authorised by US President Donald Trump, killed Qassem Soleimani, longstanding chief of the Quds Force -- the external action wing of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC). Others also died, notably Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the leader of Iran-backed Iraqi militia Kata’ib Hezbollah, which had been targeted in earlier US strikes. Impacts Baghdad’s parliament will consider a bill to evict the US military presence. The confrontation with Iran will undermine efforts to combat the residual Islamic State presence. As the responses play out, oil prices are likely to rise further. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal could at last collapse. Damascus may increase its dependence on Moscow in the absence of Soleimani’s personal networks.

Qatar will follow GCC line on regional policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Regional Policy ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
World Cup ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Investments ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
The Creation ◽  
State Group

Subject Qatari foreign policy. Significance Qatar has adopted a lower profile on the regional and international stage since the accession of Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in June 2013. The emir is seeking to avoid the problems caused by the more activist policy of his father. His room for manoeuvre has been constrained by several threats that require Doha's greater cooperation with Gulf neighbours, notably Islamic State group (ISG), Iran, and renewed controversy over Qatar's hosting of the FIFA 2022 World Cup. Impacts If Qatar's World Cup bid is re-examined, Qatar is likely to use its financial investments abroad to put pressure on individual states. Qatar's improved cooperation with Gulf states will contribute to the creation of a solid regional Sunni bloc against Iran and ISG. Syrian rebels will make more military gains as a result of more cohesive Gulf support.

Central Mali violence risks wider spillover

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Central Region ◽  
The State ◽  
Ethnic Violence ◽  
Response Mechanism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Force ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
G5 Sahel Joint Force ◽  
Humanitarian Work

Subject Ethnic violence. Significance More than 202,000 people have been displaced in central and northern Mali this year, according to a July assessment by the Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM), which coordinates humanitarian work. Levels of violence have nearly doubled, with 599 fatalities in the first half of 2019 compared with 333 in the same period last year, according to data from ACLED. In recognition of this, the UN Security Council has expanded the mandate of the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) to include stabilisation of Mali's increasingly restive central region. Impacts The security situation may increase the authorities’ bunker mentality and could empower northern actors to further sideline the state. Neither the UN nor France is likely to withdraw from Mali any time soon. The viability of the G5 Sahel Joint Force will eventually be called into question.

Resolution of the Syrian Conflict is an Important Step on the Way to Regional Stability

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (11) ◽  
pp. 53-61
Author(s):  
S. Ivanov
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Forces ◽  
Syrian Conflict

The article explores the causes, main stages and consequences of the Syrian armed conflict, its negative impact on the entire system of regional security and stability in the Middle East. The author pays special attention to analyzing the prerequisites for the outbreak of a civil war in Syria, to large-scale interference of foreign states and non-state actors in the face of radical Islamist groups in this conflict. It is emphasized that Iran, Turkey, Russia and the USA have become the main external forces participating in the Syrian conflict. The role and importance of the Kurdish factor in the northern and north-eastern regions of Syria are also considered. The author concludes that, despite the defeat of the largest terrorist groups and the establishment by the Government of the Syrian Arab Republic of control over most of the country’s territory, it is too early to talk about resolving the conflict. The country remains split into several enclaves, most of the Syrians find themselves in a position of refugees abroad or reside in territories not controlled by Damascus. The most promising way to normalize the situation in the SAR seems to be the intensification of negotiations between representatives of the Assad government and the opposition in Geneva format, where one of the main issues on the agenda is the coordination of the draft future constitution. The author also believes that the defeat of the “Islamic State” in Syria in previous years can significantly reduce the foreign military presence in this country.

French planning lacks solutions to Malian insecurity

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Special Forces ◽  
Conspiracy Theories ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
French Military ◽  
The One

Subject Foreign troop presence in Mali. Significance Last month, 13 French soldiers died in a helicopter collision in northern Mali, the greatest single loss for the French military since 1983. The incident prompted a broader discussion about the efficacy of the French presence in the Sahel. France’s Operation Barkhane, a regional counterterrorism mission, and other foreign deployments have failed to reverse the region's escalating insecurity. Meanwhile, Paris is pushing for a new European special forces mission, named Takuba, which will deploy in 2020 to train local forces. Impacts A recent beefing-up of the small contingent of Estonian troops in Mali suggests more European support is possible. Operation Barkhane’s expansion in Burkino Faso may lead to the establishment of new bases beyond the one in Ouagadougou. The continued or expanded foreign military presence, particularly of France, will fuel further protests, suspicions and conspiracy theories.

Russia's Syria intervention will empower jihadists

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Military Support ◽  
State Group

Significance Russia is primarily attacking the Syrian opposition, forcing rebel groups to rely more heavily on Syrian al-Qaida-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) for military support. Meanwhile, Russia is launching relatively few strikes on Islamic State group (ISG), which is emphasising its hostility towards Russia in order to recruit, and to advance militarily. Impacts Russia's escalation will prolong Syria's civil war for several years, thereby promoting further radicalisation. Its continuation will ensure numerous extremist groups, including ISG, retain sanctuary in Syria. Russia will use ISG-linked terrorist attacks in the West to justify its expanded military presence in the Middle East. ISG will likely increase efforts to develop regional affiliates to gain strategic resilience. Russia will increase its leverage internationally, even as it exacerbates the security threat posed by ISG and al-Qaida.

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