Makalah pengantar ekonomi

Perekonomian dua sektor merupakan penyederhanaan dalam mempelajari sistem perekonomian secara keseluruhan. Keseimbangan dalam perekonomian dua sektor merupakan keseimbangan dari sisi pendapatan dan sisi pengeluaran yang dilakukan oleh sektor rumah tangga dan sektor swasta, dengan mengabaikan sektor pemerintah dan sektor luar negeri.Perilaku pengeluaran yang dilakukan oleh sektor rumah tangga bisa dilakukan dengan membuat fungsi konsumsi dan fungsi tabungan, untuk melihat bagaimana perubahan pendapatan terhadap tingkat pengeluaran konsumsi dan tabungan. Kecenderungan bagi sektor rumah tangga untuk melakukan konsumsi disebut dengan Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC). Sedangkan kecenderungan bagi sektor rumah tangga untuk melakukan tabungan disebut dengan Marginal Propensity to Save (MPS).

Who spent their COVID-19 stimulus payment? Evidence from personal finance software in Japan

In response to the COVID-19 crisis, governments worldwide have been formulating and implementing different strategies to mitigate its social and economic impacts. We study the household consumption responses to Japan’s COVID-19 unconditional cash transfer program. Owing to frequent delays in local governments’ administrative procedures, the timing of the payment to households varied unexpectedly. Using this natural experiment, we analyze households’ consumption responses to cash transfers using high-frequency data from personal finance management software that links detailed information on expenditure, income, and wealth. We construct three consumption measures: one captures the baseline marginal propensity to consume (MPC), and the other two are for the lower and the upper bound of MPC. Additionally, we explore heterogeneity in MPCs by household income, wealth, and population characteristics, as well as consumption categories. Our results show that households exhibit immediate and non-negligible positive responses in household expenditure. There is significant heterogeneity depending on various household characteristics, with liquidity constraint status being the most crucial factor, in line with the standard consumption theory. Additionally, this study provides policymakers with insights regarding targeted cash transfer programs, conditioning on labor income, and liquidity constraints.

Conspicuous Consumption of Luxury Goods in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Applied Study on Jeddah City: الاستهلاك المظهري لسلع الرفاهية في المملكة العربية السعودية: دراسة تطبيقية على مدينة جدة

This study aims to analyze the conspicuous consumption of luxury goods in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To achieve this, the descriptive analytical and econometric approach was employed to describe the phenomenon, and review the theoretical and applied literature, to come out with the most important motivations of this type of consumption. In addition, a questionnaire was distributed to 712 individuals in Jeddah city. Through analyzing and estimating the consumption function to measure the effect of disposable personal income, alongside: gender, marital status, age, educational level, and employment status, on the consumption of luxury goods. The results indicated that the disposable personal income is a major determinant of luxury goods consumption. The marginal propensity to consume was estimated at 0.045, while the elasticity of income demand is 0.431, indicating that luxury goods are considered as necessary for Saudi consumer. The study concluded that economic rationalization requires more social awareness to distinguish between what is necessary and luxury, and between productive consumption and conspicuous unrationed consumption. Consequently, the study recommended the necessity of raising the level of awareness of the need to rationalize consumption and the importance of saving and investment. This in addition to the importance of developing an approved classification for the consumption’s items. It is also important to provide detailed statistical data, to support and stimulate in-depth research in the areas of household consumption expenditure and its ordinary and conspicuous patterns, so as to guide reform policies that effectively contribute to achieving the country’s aspirations and long-term strategies.

Dealing with misspecification in structural macroeconometric models

We consider a set of potentially misspecified structural models, geometrically combine their likelihood functions, and estimate the parameters using composite methods. In a Monte Carlo study, composite estimators dominate likelihood‐based estimators in mean squared error and composite models are superior to individual models in the Kullback–Leibler sense. We describe Bayesian quasi‐posterior computations and compare our approach to Bayesian model averaging, finite mixture, and robust control procedures. We robustify inference using the composite posterior distribution of the parameters and the pool of models. We provide estimates of the marginal propensity to consume and evaluate the role of technology shocks for output fluctuations.

International Real Estate Review

This paper investigates two types of housing wealth effects: conventional housing wealth and collateral. We incorporate home equity extraction (HEE) and the influence of mortgage liberalization into the model in Campbell and Mankiw (1989). Based on U.S. data during the 1977Q1–2019Q4, our empirical results suggest that consumption is remarkably influenced by the use of HEE, rather than home equity. Furthermore, the rapid expansion of mortgage securitization significantly amplifies the collateral effect. Conditional on the use of HEE and the share of non-bank mortgage holdings, housing wealth has an average marginal propensity to consume (MPC) of 0.84 cents and a maximum MPC of 6.06 cents. In 2007, when market-based mortgage pools and issuers of asset-backed securities held more than 60% of home mortgages, the HEE shock explained for over 50% of the forecasting variance of consumption growth. The results provide evidence that with a focus on collateral value, lenders allow more equity withdrawal, which leads to higher consumption.

Reported MPC and Unobserved Heterogeneity

Panel data on reported marginal propensity to consume in the 2010 and 2016 Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth uncover a strong negative relationship between cash on hand and MPC. Even though the relationship is attenuated when using regression methods that control for unobserved heterogeneity, the amount of bias is moderate. MPC estimates are used to evaluate the effectiveness of revenue-neutral fiscal policies targeting different parts of the distribution of household resources. (JEL E21, E62, G51)