Magma recharge patterns control eruption styles and magnitudes at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico)

Diffusion chronometry has produced petrological evidence that magma recharge in mafic to intermediate systems can trigger volcanic eruptions within weeks to months. However, less is known about longer-term recharge frequencies and durations priming magma reservoirs for eruptions. We use Fe-Mg diffusion modeling in orthopyroxene to show that the duration, frequency, and timing of pre-eruptive recharge at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico) vary systematically with eruption style and magnitude. Effusive eruptions are preceded by 9–13 yr of increased recharge activity, compared to 15–100 yr for explosive eruptions. Explosive eruptions also record a higher number of individual recharge episodes priming the plumbing system. The largest explosive eruptions are further distinguished by an ~1 yr recharge hiatus directly prior to eruption. Our results offer valuable context for the interpretation of ongoing activity at Popocatépetl, and seeking similar correlations at other arc volcanoes may advance eruption forecasting by including constraints on potential eruption size and style.

Supplemental Material: Magma recharge patterns control eruption styles and magnitudes at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico)

Items S1 (full time scale datasets), (S2) diffusion model details, and S3 (priming durations for eruptions with published time-scale data).<br>

Supplemental Material: Magma recharge patterns control eruption styles and magnitudes at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico)

Items S1 (full time scale datasets), (S2) diffusion model details, and S3 (priming durations for eruptions with published time-scale data).<br>

Earthquake-induced debris flows at Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico

The 2017 Mw 7.1 Puebla–Morelos intraslab earthquake (depth: 57 km) severely hit Popocatépetl Volcano, located ∼ 70 km north of the epicenter. The seismic shaking triggered shallow landslides on the volcanic edifice, mobilizing slope material saturated by the 3 d antecedent rainfall. We produced a landslide map based on a semi-automatic classification of a 50 cm resolution optical image acquired 2 months after the earthquake. We identified hundreds of soil slips and three large debris flows for a total affected area of 3.8 km2. Landslide distribution appears controlled by the joint effect of slope material properties and topographic amplification. In most cases, the sliding surfaces correspond with discontinuities between pumice-fall and massive ash-fall deposits from late Holocene eruptions. The largest landslides occurred on the slopes of aligned ENE–WSW-trending ravines, on opposite sides of the volcano, roughly parallel to the regional maximum horizontal stress and to volcano-tectonic structural features. This suggests transient reactivation of local faults and extensional fractures as one of the mechanisms that weakened the volcanic edifice and promoted the largest slope failures. The material involved in the larger landslides transformed into three large debris flows due to liquefaction. These debris flows mobilized a total volume of about 106 m3 of material also including large wood, were highly viscous, and propagated up to 7.7 km from the initiation areas. We reconstructed this mass wasting cascade by means of field evidence, samples from both landslide scarps and deposits, and analysis of remotely sensed and rainfall data. Although subduction-related earthquakes are known to produce a smaller number of landslides than shallow crustal earthquakes, the processes described here show how an unusual intraslab earthquake can produce an exceptional impact on an active volcano. This scenario, not related to the magmatic activity of the volcano, should be considered in multi-hazard risk assessment at Popocatépetl and other active volcanoes located along volcanic arcs.

Identification of the Airspace Affected by the Presence of Volcanic Ash by Processing Satellite Images, Case Study: Popocatepétl Volcano Area

A volcanic eruption can affect large areas of the atmosphere around the volcano. Commercial aviation uses these zones the airspace as a navigation zone. Encountering these ash clouds can cause severe damage to different parts of the aircraft, mainly the engines. This work aims to generate a predictive tool based on the frequency of affectation of the airspace areas around a volcano with eruptive activity, taking the Popocatépetl volcano as a case study. Was carried temporal wind analysis at different atmosphere levels to identifying direction towards which wind disperses ash in year months. This information shown two representative seasons in the direction of dispersion: the first from November to May and the second from July to September, taking into account that June and October are transitional months and therefore do not present a predominant direction. To identify the ash cloud and estimate its area, a set of MODIS images was compiled that recorded the activity in the period 2000-2014. These satellite images were subjected to a semi-automatic digital pre-processing of binarization by thresholds according to the level of the Brightness Temperature Difference between band 31 and band 32, followed by manual evaluation of each binarized image. The result of those above pre-processing was a set of pixels with spatial (longitude and latitude) and temporal (date) description, from which the history of the areas affected by ash permanence was obtained. Additionally, a set of pixels evaluated and labeled in table form could be used as training data for future artificial intelligence applications to automatically detect and discriminate ash clouds.