Magma recharge patterns control eruption styles and magnitudes at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico)

Diffusion chronometry has produced petrological evidence that magma recharge in mafic to intermediate systems can trigger volcanic eruptions within weeks to months. However, less is known about longer-term recharge frequencies and durations priming magma reservoirs for eruptions. We use Fe-Mg diffusion modeling in orthopyroxene to show that the duration, frequency, and timing of pre-eruptive recharge at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico) vary systematically with eruption style and magnitude. Effusive eruptions are preceded by 9–13 yr of increased recharge activity, compared to 15–100 yr for explosive eruptions. Explosive eruptions also record a higher number of individual recharge episodes priming the plumbing system. The largest explosive eruptions are further distinguished by an ~1 yr recharge hiatus directly prior to eruption. Our results offer valuable context for the interpretation of ongoing activity at Popocatépetl, and seeking similar correlations at other arc volcanoes may advance eruption forecasting by including constraints on potential eruption size and style.

Influence of Hydrothermal Recharge on the Evolution of Eruption Styles and Hazards During the 2018–2019 Activity at Kuchinoerabujima Volcano, Japan

The activity of the 2018-2019 eruption of Kuchinoerabujima Volcano in Japan changed from continuous ejection of ash-laden plumes between October 21 and the middle of December, to intermittent explosive activity accompanied by several pyroclastic density currents until January 2019. To understand the behaviors of magma and hydrothermal fluid that controlled the eruptive sequence, we carried out component analysis, X-ray diffractometry, and leachate analysis for ash samples. The proportion of non-altered volcanic ash particles is ~15 % in the earlier phase, then it decreased to less than 10 % in the later explosive phase. Accordingly, the mineral assemblage of the volcanic ash samples changed from plagioclase-dominant to sulfate minerals-dominant. Concentration of SO42- and Cl/SO4 values of the ash-leachates decreased toward the later activity. These results indicate that the proportion of fresh volcanic rocks decreased and sulfuric acid fluid-derived sulfate minerals increased toward the later activities. Consequently, the 2018-2019 eruption at Kuchinoerabujima Volcano changed from magmatic activity to phreatomagmatic activity. Weak glowing of the crater was observed during the magmatic activity, indicating the volcanic conduit was hot enough to dry up the subvolcanic hydrothermal system. The following phreatomagmatic activity indicates that the hydrothermal fluid recharged after the magmatic eruption phase. Recharge of the hydrothermal fluid likely caused the variation of the eruption style, and is a process that may control the evolution of hazards during future eruption scenarios at similar active volcanoes in Japan and worldwide.

Temporal variations of magma composition, eruption style and rate at Fuji Volcano, Japan

Mt. Fuji is an active basaltic volcano near the Tokyo metropolitan area; future eruptions could thus have serious nationwide impacts. To better understand recent volcanism at Fuji Volcano, we here clarify temporal variations of eruption rate and magma composition since 5.6 ka based on time-series volumetric and geochemical data of eruptive products in a new stratigraphic sequence. Volcanic activity during the studied period consisted of (i) the emission of many lava flows that formed a new volcanic edifice between 5.6 and 3.45 ka, (ii) a period dominated by explosive events both at the summit and on the flanks of the volcano between 3.45 and 2.25 ka, and (iii) a period dominated by flank fissure eruptions since 2.25 ka. The eruption rate (dense-rock equivalent, DRE) was 3.5 km3 DRE/kyr during the edifice-building period, decreased to 0.8 km3 DRE/kyr during the explosive period, and then increased to 2.0 km3 DRE/kyr since 1.5 ka. Erupted magmas were dominantly basaltic and geochemically similar through time, except for increased Sr contents and decreased Ca/Sr ratios during the explosive period. Similarly, the geochemical properties of the parental magmas did not change greatly, although the Sr contents and Ca/Sr ratios of magmas erupted during the explosive period reflect the delayed fractionation of plagioclase due to the increased water contents of the parental magmas at that time.

Rapid eruptive transitions from low to high intensity explosions and effusive activity: insights from textural analysis of a small-volume trachytic eruption, Ascension Island, South Atlantic

Proximal deposits of small-volume trachytic eruptions are an under-studied record of eruption dynamics despite being common across a range of settings. The 59 ± 4 ka Echo Canyon deposits, Ascension Island, resulted from a small-volume explosive-effusive trachytic eruption. Variations in juvenile clast texture reveal changes in ascent dynamics and transitions in eruption style. Five dominant textural types are identified within the pumice lapilli population. Early Strombolian-Vulcanian eruption phases are typified by macro- and micro-vesicular equant clast types. Sheared clasts are most abundant at the eruption peak, transitioning to dense clasts in later phases due to shear-induced coalescence, outgassing and vesicle collapse. Melt densification and outgassing via tuffisite veins increased plume density, contributing to partial column collapse and the explosive-effusive transition. Bulk vesicularity distributions indicate a shift in dominant fragmentation mechanism during the eruption, from early-stage bubble interference and rupture to late-stage transient fragmentation, with a transient peak of Plinian activity. Dome and lava groundmass crystallinities of up to 70% indicate near-complete degassing during effusive phases, followed by shallow over pressurisation and a final less explosive phase. We provide textural evidence for high-intensity explosive phases and rapid transitions in eruptive style during small-volume trachytic eruptions and consider the impact of trachytic melt compositions on underlying dynamics of these short-lived, explosive events. This analysis demonstrates the value of detailed stratigraphy in understanding critical changes in eruption dynamics and the timescales over which they may occur which is of particular value in anticipating future eruptions of this type.

Kusatsu-Shirane volcano eruption on January 23, 2018, observed using JMA operational weather radars

A phreatic eruption suddenly occurred at Motoshirane (Kusatsu-Shirane volcano, Japan) at 10:02 JST on January 23, 2018. A member of the Japan Self-Defense Force was killed by volcanic blocks during training in Motoshirane, and 11 people were injured by volcanic blocks or fragments of broken glass. According to a field survey, ash fall was confirmed in Minakami, about 40 km east-northeast from Motoshirane. Although the eruption was not captured by a distant camera, the eruption plume/cloud was captured by three of the Japan Meteorological Agency’s operational weather radars. These radars observed the echo propagated to the northeast in the lower troposphere, and to the east in the middle troposphere. This is generally consistent with the observed ash fall distribution. Using the modified probabilistic estimation method, the maximum plume height was estimated to be about 5580 ± 506 m (1σ) above sea level. Estimates of the erupted mass based on the range of plume heights from radar observations and the duration of volcanic tremor during the eruption (about 8 min) do not match that obtained from a field survey (3.0–5.0 × 107 kg). This discrepancy confirms that estimates of erupted mass based on plume heights must account for eruption style parametrically, which can only be constrained by case studies of varied eruption styles.

Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)

The San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua) have been characterized by a significant variability in eruption style and vent location. Densely inhabited cities are built on them and their surroundings, including the metropolitan areas of San Salvador (∼2.4 million people) and Managua (∼1.4 million people), respectively. In this study we present novel vent opening probability maps for these volcanic complexes, which are based on a multi-model approach that relies on kernel density estimators. In particular, we present thematic vent opening maps, i.e., we consider different hazardous phenomena separately, including lava emission, small-scale pyroclastic density currents, ejection of ballistic projectiles, and low-intensity pyroclastic fallout. Our volcanological dataset includes: (1) the location of past vents, (2) the mapping of the main fault structures, and (3) the eruption styles of past events, obtained from critical analysis of the literature and/or inferred from volcanic deposits and morphological features observed remotely and in the field. To illustrate the effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents derived from phreatomagmatic activity or from low-intensity magmatic volcanism. For the numerical simulation of these phenomena we adopted the recently developed branching energy cone model by using the program ECMapProb. Our results show that the implementation of thematic vent opening maps can produce significantly different hazard levels from those estimated with traditional, non-thematic maps.

Magmatic Processes at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe: Insights From Crystal Studies and Diffusion Timescales for Eruption Onset

Signals of volcanic unrest do not usually provide insights into the timing, size and style of future eruptions, but detailed analysis of past eruptions may uncover patterns that can be used to understand future eruptive behavior. Here, we examine basaltic-andesitic to andesitic eruption deposits from La Soufrière de Guadeloupe, covering a range of eruption styles, ages and magnitudes. Our work is timely given unrest at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe has increased over the last 25 years. We constrain the timescales of magmatic processes preceding four eruptions: 1657 Cal. CE (Vulcanian), 1010 Cal. CE (Plinian), ∼341 Cal. CE (Strombolian) and 5680 Cal. BCE (La Soufrière de Guadeloupe’s first known Plinian eruption). Using crystal-specific analyses of diffusion in orthopyroxenes, we calculate the timescale occurring between the last recharge/mixing event in the magma reservoir and the eruption. We use backscattered electron images, coupled with EMPA of the outermost crystal rim, to derive magmatic timescales. We model the timescale populations as random processes whose probability distributions provide expected (“mean”) timescales and the associated standard errors for each eruption. This provides a new statistical method for comparing magmatic timescales between disparate eruptions. From this, we obtain timescales of magma storage at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe ranging from 34.8 ± 0.4 days to 847 ± 0.4 days, with no clear distinction between eruption style/size and timescales observed. Based on these data, magmatic interaction timescales are a poor predictor of eruption style/size. This study shows that magmatic processes prior to eruption can occur on relatively short timescales at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe. Further to this basaltic-andesitic to andesitic volcanoes can rapidly produce large-scale eruptions on short timescales. These relatively short timescales calculated for volcanic processes at this system constitute a critical new data set and warrant an urgency in enhancing modeling and interpretation capabilities for near-real time monitoring data. These integrated efforts will improve early warning, eruption forecasting and crisis response management for different scenarios, as well as planning for long-term risk reduction.