Dispersal and fire limit Arctic shrub expansion

Arctic shrub expansion has been widely reported in recent decades, with large impacts on carbon budgets, albedo, and warming rates in high latitudes. However, predicting shrub expansion across regions remains challenging because the underlying controls remain unclear. Observational studies and models typically use relationships between observed shrub presence and current environmental suitability (climate and topography) to predict shrub expansion, but such approaches omit potentially important biotic-abiotic interactions and non-stationary relationships. Here, we use long-term high-resolution satellite imagery across Alaska and western Canada to show that observed shrub expansion has not been controlled by environmental suitability during 1984-2014, but rather can only be explained by accounting for seed dispersal and fire. These findings provide the impetus for better observations of recruitment and for incorporating currently underrepresented processes of seed dispersal and fire in land models to project shrub expansion and future climate feedbacks. Integrating these dynamic processes with projected fire extent and climate, we estimate that shrubs will expand into 25% of the non-shrub tundra by 2100, in contrast to 39% predicted using a relationship with increasing suitability alone. Thus, using environmental suitability alone likely overestimates and misrepresents the spatial pattern of shrub expansion and its associated carbon sink.

Fire in Semi-Arid Shrublands and Woodlands: Spatial and Temporal Patterns in an Australian Landscape

Semi-arid landscapes are of interest to fire ecologists because they are generally located in the climatic transition zone between arid lands (where fires tend to be rare due to lack of fuel, but are enhanced following large rainfall episodes) and more mesic regions (where fire activity tends to be enhanced following severe rainfall deficits). Here we report on the characteristics of the contemporary fire regimes operating in a semi-arid region of inland south-western Australia with rainfall averaging around 300 mm per annum. To characterize fire regimes, we analyzed a geodatabase of fire scars (1960–2018) to derive fire preferences for each major vegetation type and fire episode and used known fire intervals to model fire hazard over time and calculate typical fire frequencies. We also used super epoch analysis and correlations to explore relationships between annual fire extent and rainfall received before the fire. We found fires strongly favored sandplain shrublands, and these tended to experience hot crown fires once every 100 years (median fire interval), with fire hazard increasing linearly over time. In contrast, fires were rare in eucalypt woodland and other vegetation types, with a median interval of 870 years and broadly consistent fire hazard over time. Annual fire extent was most strongly linked with high rainfall in the year prior to fire, and this was particularly so for eucalypt woodlands. Large-scale fires in shrublands tended to favor areas burnt in previous large fires, whereas in woodlands they favored edges. In conclusion, we found divergent fire regimes across the major vegetation types of the region. Sandplain shrublands were similar to Mediterranean shrublands in that they experienced intense stand-replacing wildfires which recovered vigorously although slowly, meaning burnt shrublands did not experience fires again for at least 25 and 100 years on average. In contrast, eucalypt woodlands were fire sensitive (trees readily killed by fire) and experienced fires mostly around the edges, spreading into core areas only after large rainfall events elevated fuel levels. Overall, both vegetation types subscribed to typical arid-zone fire regimes where elevated rainfall, and not drought, promoted fires, although the role of fuel accumulation over time was more important in the shrublands.

Determination of Fire Extent in Forest Zones Using Remote Sensing Data Case Study: Golestan Province of Iran

Fire is one of the most serious hazards, which causes many economic, social, ecological, and human damages every year in the world. Fire in forests and natural ecosystems destroys wood, regeneration, forest vegetation, as well as soil erosion and forest regeneration problems (due to the dryness of the weather and the weakness of the soil). Awareness of the extent of the zones that have been fired is important for forest management. On the other hand, the difficulty of fieldwork due to the high cost and inaccessible roads, etc. reveals the need for using remote sensing science to solve this problem. In this research, MODIS satellite images were used to detect and determine the fire extent of Golestan province forests in northern Iran. MID13q1 and MOD13q1 images were used to detect the normal conditions of the environment. The 15-year time series data were provided for the NDVI and NDMI indicators in 2000-2015. Then, the behavior of indicators in the fire zone was studied on the day after the fire. The burned zones by the fire were specified by determining the appropriate threshold and then, they were compared to long-term normals. In the NDMI and NDVI indicators, the mean of the numeric value threshold limit for determining the burnt pixels was respectively 1.865 and 0.743 of the reduction in their normal long-term period, which are selected as fire pixels. The results showed that the NDMI index could determine the extent of the burned zone with the accuracy of 95.15%.

Small mammals decline with increasing fire extent in northern Australia: evidence from long-term monitoring in Kakadu National Park

Small mammal (<2 kg) numbers have declined dramatically in northern Australia in recent decades. Fire regimes, characterised by frequent, extensive, late-season wildfires, are implicated in this decline. Here, we compare the effect of fire extent, in conjunction with fire frequency, season and spatial heterogeneity (patchiness) of the burnt area, on mammal declines in Kakadu National Park over a recent decadal period. Fire extent – an index incorporating fire size and fire frequency – was the best predictor of mammal declines, and was superior to the proportion of the surrounding area burnt and fire patchiness. Point-based fire frequency, a commonly used index for characterising fire effects, was a weak predictor of declines. Small-scale burns affected small mammals least of all. Crucially, the most important aspects of fire regimes that are associated with declines are spatial ones; extensive fires (at scales larger than the home ranges of small mammals) are the most detrimental, indicating that small mammals may not easily escape the effects of large and less patchy fires. Notwithstanding considerable management effort, the current fire regime in this large conservation reserve is detrimental to the native mammal fauna, and more targeted management is required to reduce fire size.

Location, timing and extent of wildfire vary by cause of ignition

The increasing extent of wildfires has prompted investigation into alternative fire management approaches to complement the traditional strategies of fire suppression and fuels manipulation. Wildfire prevention through ignition reduction is an approach with potential for success, but ignitions result from a variety of causes. If some ignition sources result in higher levels of area burned, then ignition prevention programmes could be optimised to target these distributions in space and time. We investigated the most common ignition causes in two southern California sub-regions, where humans are responsible for more than 95% of all fires, and asked whether these causes exhibited distinct spatial or intra-annual temporal patterns, or resulted in different extents of fire in 10–29-year periods, depending on sub-region. Different ignition causes had distinct spatial patterns and those that burned the most area tended to occur in autumn months. Both the number of fires and area burned varied according to cause of ignition, but the cause of the most numerous fires was not always the cause of the greatest area burned. In both sub-regions, power line ignitions were one of the top two causes of area burned: the other major causes were arson in one sub-region and power equipment in the other. Equipment use also caused the largest number of fires in both sub-regions. These results have important implications for understanding why, where and how ignitions are caused, and in turn, how to develop strategies to prioritise and focus fire prevention efforts. Fire extent has increased tremendously in southern California, and because most fires are caused by humans, ignition reduction offers a potentially powerful management strategy, especially if optimised to reflect the distinct spatial and temporal distributions in different ignition causes.