environmental suitability
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2022 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0010019
Author(s):  
Sabrina L. Li ◽  
André L. Acosta ◽  
Sarah C. Hill ◽  
Oliver J. Brady ◽  
Marco A. B. de Almeida ◽  
...  

Background Yellow fever (YF) is an arboviral disease which is endemic to Brazil due to a sylvatic transmission cycle maintained by infected mosquito vectors, non-human primate (NHP) hosts, and humans. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, recent sporadic YF epidemics have underscored concerns about sylvatic vector surveillance, as very little is known about their spatial distribution. Here, we model and map the environmental suitability of YF’s main vectors in Brazil, Haemagogus spp. and Sabethes spp., and use human population and NHP data to identify locations prone to transmission and spillover risk. Methodology/Principal findings We compiled a comprehensive set of occurrence records on Hg. janthinomys, Hg. leucocelaenus, and Sabethes spp. from 1991–2019 using primary and secondary data sources. Linking these data with selected environmental and land-cover variables, we adopted a stacked regression ensemble modelling approach (elastic-net regularized GLM, extreme gradient boosted regression trees, and random forest) to predict the environmental suitability of these species across Brazil at a 1x1 km resolution. We show that while suitability for each species varies spatially, high suitability for all species was predicted in the Southeastern region where recent outbreaks have occurred. By integrating data on NHP host reservoirs and human populations, our risk maps further highlight municipalities within the region that are prone to transmission and spillover. Conclusions/Significance Our maps of sylvatic vector suitability can help elucidate potential locations of sylvatic reservoirs and be used as a tool to help mitigate risk of future YF outbreaks and assist in vector surveillance. Furthermore, at-risk regions identified from our work could help disease control and elucidate gaps in vaccination coverage and NHP host surveillance.


2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Maria Almeida ◽  
Maria João Martins ◽  
Manuel Lameiras Campagnolo ◽  
Paulo Fernandez ◽  
Teresa Albuquerque ◽  
...  

AbstractClimate change is a challenge for forests in the coming decades, with a major impact on species adaptation and distribution. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the most vulnerable hotspots for biodiversity conservation under climate change in the world. This research aimed at studying a Mediterranean species well adapted to the region: the Arbutus unedo L. (strawberry tree). The MaxEnt, a presence-only species-distribution software, was used to model A. unedo’s environmental suitability. The current species potential distribution was accessed based on actual occurrences and selected environmental variables and subsequently projected for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), and the years 2050 and 2070, considering the two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results from the LGM projection suggest the presence of refugia in the core of the Mediterranean Basin, in particular the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The projections for the MH indicate increasing climatic suitability for the species and an eastward expansion, relatively to LGM. The predicted future environmental changes will most likely act as a catalyst for suitable habitat loss and a range shift towards the North is likely to occur.


Author(s):  
Diana Hernandez Langford ◽  
Jaime Escoto Moreno ◽  
Joaquín Sosa Ramírez

Aim: Mexican hand tree Chiranthodendron pentadactylon is an evergreen temperate tree species restricted to cloud forests and pine-oak forests of southern Mexico, Guatemala and possibly Honduras. Climate is believed to significantly contribute to the species establishment, viability and distribution. Insights into the impact of climate change on the species potential distribution throughout time were approached by ecological niche modeling tools. Location: Southern Mexico, Guatemala and Honduras. Methods: Past (Last Interglacial 120-140 KA, Last Glacial Maximum 22 KA, Mid-Holocene 6 KA), historical (1910-2009) and future (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100) potential distributions and corresponding environmental suitability were modelled using the Maximum Entropy algorithm. Current (historical) models were based on the most up to date historical environmental variables and constituted the baseline for past and future projections. Past predictions are revisited in a phylogeographic context. Future predictions were made for four different emissions scenarios. Results: Increase in potential distribution range comes about during cold and humid periods but higher suitability possibly relates to humid conditions. Potential distribution alongside environmental suitability diminishes during warm and dry periods. Future climate change implies warmer periods whence environmental suitability declines following a linear trend. Main conclusions: Future warmer conditions are predicted to linearly reduce environmental suitability throughout time. Biotic and anthropogenic factors further threaten the species distribution. Demographic trends and genetic diversity estimated through a recent phylogeographic study, complement the statement that populations viability is increasingly being threatened by current and future climate change, underscoring the need for the implementation of conservation actions.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanlan Liu ◽  
William Riley ◽  
Trevor Keenan ◽  
Zelalem Mekonnen ◽  
Jennifer Holm ◽  
...  

Abstract Arctic shrub expansion has been widely reported in recent decades, with large impacts on carbon budgets, albedo, and warming rates in high latitudes. However, predicting shrub expansion across regions remains challenging because the underlying controls remain unclear. Observational studies and models typically use relationships between observed shrub presence and current environmental suitability (climate and topography) to predict shrub expansion, but such approaches omit potentially important biotic-abiotic interactions and non-stationary relationships. Here, we use long-term high-resolution satellite imagery across Alaska and western Canada to show that observed shrub expansion has not been controlled by environmental suitability during 1984-2014, but rather can only be explained by accounting for seed dispersal and fire. These findings provide the impetus for better observations of recruitment and for incorporating currently underrepresented processes of seed dispersal and fire in land models to project shrub expansion and future climate feedbacks. Integrating these dynamic processes with projected fire extent and climate, we estimate that shrubs will expand into 25% of the non-shrub tundra by 2100, in contrast to 39% predicted using a relationship with increasing suitability alone. Thus, using environmental suitability alone likely overestimates and misrepresents the spatial pattern of shrub expansion and its associated carbon sink.


2021 ◽  
Vol 877 (1) ◽  
pp. 012022
Author(s):  
Salih Khalaf Mohammed ◽  
Bahjat Rashad Shahin

Abstract Diplomatic buildings are considered a mirror that reflects the civilization and values of one country in the space of other countries, and therefore one of the most basic elements in planning these buildings in our time is related to achieving the environmental suitability of these buildings. As embassy buildings in different countries of the world should be a guest that respects the local context and environment in which he is present, and with the increasing number of diplomatic buildings in different countries, the need to adopt more attention has emerged to study their relationship with the environmental aspect,so this will be given The research pays great attention to environmental standards in diplomatic buildings To become the research problem: the lack of knowledge in previous literature about the environmental planning and design indicators of diplomatic buildings in general, and how they deal with the host country’s resources, The aim of the research is: to extract the most important vocabulary and indicators of greening decisions in diplomatic buildings,Where the research results confirm the role of treatments for greening diplomatic buildings in preserving the host country’s natural resources from depletion, which in turn contributes to strengthening diplomacy between the two countries, in addition to achieving significant savings in the costs of paying bills for energy and resource use.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Feng Ying

After years of vigorous development, the scale of rural tourism industry has gradually expanded throughout the country, and it has become an important means of coordinating urban and rural areas to drive farmers’ incomes and get rich. Nowadays, the level of informatization is constantly improving, the construction of smart cities is constantly advancing, the personalized demand of tourists is increasingly strong, especially the rural tourist spots scattered in the vast countryside which have a great spatial breadth, and the traditional management method can no longer meet the needs of the source objects whose main travel mode is self-driving. Therefore, only when rural tourism develops in the direction of intelligence can it successfully realize the transformation and upgrading of rural tourism industry. This paper takes a rural tourism resort in a certain area as the research object and builds an intelligent rural tourism environmental suitability evaluation system with three criterion levels: natural geographic conditions, traffic environmental conditions, and tourism spatial conditions. The weight of each indicator layer is obtained through the analytic hierarchy process, and the reclassified raster data of indicators is weighted and superimposed on the ArcGIS operating platform to obtain the evaluation result of the environmental suitability of smart rural tourism. According to the results of suitability evaluation, the most suitable area is selected as the potential area of the intelligent rural tourism environment in a certain area. According to the natural and cultural tourism resource conditions in the block, the potential block is divided into functions. A comprehensive comparison of the suitability spatial differentiation map of the smart rural tourism environment in a certain area with the suitability spatial differentiation map of each subsystem can more clearly find that the suitability score of the economic development subsystem and the basic support subsystem is a county-level village in a certain area. Among them, the suitability of the rural economic development subsystem is similar to the distribution of the suitability of the smart rural tourism environment in a certain area; that is, it is positively correlated with the suitability of the smart rural tourism environment. Therefore, improving the level of rural economic development and increasing investment in the construction of a smart rural tourism environment play an important role in improving the level of public services and infrastructure coverage.


2021 ◽  
pp. 118350
Author(s):  
Soteras Florencia ◽  
Camps Gonzalo Andrés ◽  
Costas Santiago ◽  
Giaquinta Adrián ◽  
Peralta Guadalupe ◽  
...  

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