Estimating SARS-CoV-2 prevalence from large-scale wastewater surveillance: insights from combined analysis of 44 sites in England

Accurate surveillance of the COVID-19 pandemic can be weakened by under-reporting of cases, particularly due to asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic infections, resulting in bias. Quantification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater (WW) can be used to infer infection prevalence, but uncertainty in sensitivity and considerable variability has meant that accurate measurement remains elusive. Data from 44 sewage sites in England, covering 31% of the population, shows that SARS-CoV-2 prevalence is estimated to within 1.1% of estimates from representative prevalence surveys (with 95% confidence). Using machine learning and phenomenological models, differences between sampled sites, particularly the WW flow rate, influence prevalence estimation and require careful interpretation. SARS-CoV-2 signals in WW appear 4–5 days earlier in comparison to clinical testing data but are coincident with prevalence surveys suggesting that WW surveillance can be a leading indicator for asymptomatic viral infections. Wastewater-based epidemiology complements and strengthens traditional surveillance, with significant implications for public health.

Simulating Trambouze reaction for a series reactor

Simulating the existing data on Trambouze reaction is compiled in this article. The objective of the work is to present the change of volumetric flow rate and the inlet concentration of key reactant A in a series continuous stirred tank reactor-plug flow reactor (CSTR-PFR) configurations. The volumetric flow rate does not affect selectivity and conversion for a constant volumetric flow rate operating condition, entering CSTR and PFR, at a specific concentration of reactant. The CSTR-PFR series reactor configuration is proposed for the aim of maximizing the selectivity of the desired product B in comparison to the undesired products X and Y. CSTR as the first reactor is capable to achieve the maximum conversion at the highest selectivity of A. PFR is then proposed after CSTR in a configuration of CSTR-PFR, to allow higher conversion value to be achieved for the resulted outlet stream conditions coming out of the first reactor, CSTR. Both reactors commonly encounter a decrease in the initial concentration of A and an increase to the formation of other products. The CSTR entering volumetric flow rate influence the volume sizes needed in achieving the maximum selectivity and conversion