Long term population decline and the impacts of COVID-19 in South Australia’s regions

Background South Australian regions have been given little attention in discussions on population decline. Aims This paper aims to examine the nature and incidence of population decline in South Australia as well as evaluate the potential impacts of COVID-19. Data and methods Estimated Resident Population data from 2001 to 2020, and Census data from 2006 and 2016, were used to investigate demographic and economic change. Measures of population change, age structure, employment and components of population change were used. Results Population decline has been a feature of South Australia’s regions for decades and continues to be so as more of the population concentrates in its capital and regional centres where greater opportunities of employment and greater provisions of amenities are available. COVID-19 has the potential to accelerate this change if South Australia’s vulnerable regions are not able to absorb the economic impacts the pandemic poses. Conclusions A strong driver of population decline in the regions is employment loss in core industries. Strategies that support these industries or otherwise aim to stimulate economic activity in these communities are required to moderate further decline in South Australia’s regions especially as the economy recovers from the impacts of COVID-19.

Indigenous Peoples and the Australian census: value, trust, and participation

No abstract.

Dissecting the drivers of rural demographic decline: the case of the New England & North West region of New South Wales

Background In the contemporary academic literature, rural population decline has generally been regarded as a long-running and almost natural phenomenon. Aims This paper examines the complex temporal, spatial and cultural dynamics of the population of an inland, largely agriculturally-dependent rural region, the New South Wales New England & North West Statistical Division (SD), from the late 1990s to the 2016 Census. It investigates the key demographic processes that have driven the region’s spatially and temporally-uneven experiences of population change – including decline – over this tumultuous period, using these as portents of the regional population’s likely future trajectories. Data and methods The analysis draws on Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data for the SD’s population as a whole, and for the non-Indigenous and Indigenous segments of the population. Results The analysis identifies that a profound ageing process is underway across the entire region, is becoming more severe with the passing years, and leading to natural decrease for some Shires. However, the SD’s Indigenous population presents a striking contrast to the non-indigenous one, growing rapidly, increasing its share of the population and is a force for demographic rejuvenation. Conclusions The analysis reveals that a profound ageing process is underway across the entire SD and is becoming more severe with the passing years. The SD’s Indigenous population presents a striking contrast to the non-Indigenous, growing rapidly, increasing its share of the population – particularly in the western-most LGAs – and is a force for demographic rejuvenation.

Measuring area-level disadvantage in Australia: development of a locally sensitive indicator

Background In Australia, the Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), which includes the Index of Relative Socioeconomic Disadvantage (IRSD), captures the socioeconomic characteristics of areas. Because SEIFA rankings are relative to the country or state, the decile categorisations may not reflect an area’s socioeconomic standing relative to areas nearby. Aims The aim of the research was to explore whether IRSD rankings could be re-ranked to become locally sensitive. Data and methods Using existing SEIFA data to redistribute the membership of current decile IRSD groups, we tested three methods to re-rank all SA1 areas relative to the nearest areas capped at: (1) the nearest 99 neighbours, (2) a population threshold of 50,000 (3) a distance threshold of 10 km. Results The reclassification of SEIFA IRSD deciles was largest (up to 8 decile points of change) when comparing the nearest neighbour and population threshold local methods to current state-based rankings. Moreover, compared to using current national and state SEIFA IRSD rankings, the use of local rankings resulted in more evenly distributed deciles between cities, regional, and remote areas. Conclusions Because SEIFA IRSD rankings are used to allocate resources and health services, we encourage the combined use of a state and local ranking to refine areas considered the most disadvantaged.

Beyond population growth: bringing connection, renewal and agency into regional development

Background Boosting the population growth of towns and cities across regional Australia has long been a popular aspiration. However, the reality of many regional locations is long-term population decline. Aims Regional development has been underpinned by a growth paradigm which conflates population growth with success. This article explores how some regional communities have experienced renewal, fostered innovation, and enhanced community wellbeing without population growth. Data and methods A mixed methods approach informs this paper. Five case studies are used to illustrate ways in which regional communities can experience successful economic and social outcomes without population growth. Literature is provided for context and empirical data are used to illustrate key features of the selected towns. Results The case studies reveal themes of connection, place, agency and wellbeing which contribute to ‘successful’ communities. For example, developing connections with a wider network within the region or across sectors enables economic growth through innovation, irrespective of population growth. Conclusions Being able to respond to, or take advantage of, change is an important element in regional development and one which creates community renewal and wellbeing even if not population growth.

COVID-19 and the Australian labour market: how did older Australians fare during 2020?

Background In analysing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labour market, attention has focussed on younger people, leaving a research gap when it comes to outcomes for older Australians aged 50 years or over, in terms of employment, unemployment, underemployment and hours worked. Aims To describe levels of labour force participation, unemployment, underemployment, and hours worked by older workers and job seekers during 2020. Data and methods Using Australian Bureau of Statistics data, we perform descriptive analyses of variations in labour market outcomes by geographic areas, public and private sector employment, industry of employment and demographic characteristics. Results Older employment fell in April but recovered by December. As the full-time share initially increased, average hours worked decreased due to reductions in hours offered to workers, increasing the underemployment rate. There was little recovery of employment in metropolitan Melbourne due to prolonged lockdown conditions. Of the largest industries, retail trade and manufacturing were worst affected. Conclusions By December 2020, employment levels for older workers in some sectors had recovered from the initial downturn caused by the pandemic. However, for older workers in some industries, there is a major concern about their potential for future employment.

Counting gender and sexual identity in the Australian census

No abstract

Living in more than one place: capturing dual-local lives in the 2026 Census

No abstract

Why recording workforce mobility matters

No abstract

Visualising the COVID-19 related disruptions to long-distance population mobility in Australia

No abstract