scholarly journals Long term population decline and the impacts of COVID-19 in South Australia’s regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-85
Author(s):  
Jacob Irving ◽  
Sandy Horne ◽  
Andrew Beer
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Resident Population

Background   South Australian regions have been given little attention in discussions on population decline. Aims   This paper aims to examine the nature and incidence of population decline in South Australia as well as evaluate the potential impacts of COVID-19. Data and methods   Estimated Resident Population data from 2001 to 2020, and Census data from 2006 and 2016, were used to investigate demographic and economic change. Measures of population change, age structure, employment and components of population change were used. Results   Population decline has been a feature of South Australia’s regions for decades and continues to be so as more of the population concentrates in its capital and regional centres where greater opportunities of employment and greater provisions of amenities are available. COVID-19 has the potential to accelerate this change if South Australia’s vulnerable regions are not able to absorb the economic impacts the pandemic poses. Conclusions   A strong driver of population decline in the regions is employment loss in core industries. Strategies that support these industries or otherwise aim to stimulate economic activity in these communities are required to moderate further decline in South Australia’s regions especially as the economy recovers from the impacts of COVID-19.

Future Costs of Long-term Care in Japan and Sweden

2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 128-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mårten Lagergren ◽  
Noriko Kurube ◽  
Yasuhiko Saito
Keyword(s):  
Long Term Care ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
The Other ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Term Care ◽  
And Gender

Population aging is expected to increase long-term care (LTC) costs in both Japan and Sweden. This study projected LTC costs for 2010 through 2040 for different assumptions of population change, LTC need by age group and gender, and LTC provided per level of need and cost in Japan and Sweden. Population data were taken from the official national forecasts. Needs projections were based on epidemiological data from the Nihon University Japanese Longitudinal Study of Aging and the Swedish Survey of Living Conditions. Data on LTC provision by need and cost were taken from nine Japanese municipalities collected by assessments in the LTC insurance system and from surveys in eight Swedish municipalities. Total initial costs were calibrated to official national figures. Two projections based on two different scenarios were made for each country from 2010 to 2040. The first scenario assumed a constant level of need for LTC by age group and gender, and the other assumed a continuation of the present LTC need trends until 2025. For Japan, this resulted in a projected cost increase of 93% for the one and 80% for the other; for Sweden it was 52% and 24%, respectively. The results reflected differences in population aging and health development.

scholarly journals Population of Puerto Rico not displaced by Hurricanes (for now): It’s the economy

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matt Kaneshiro ◽  
Collin McCarter ◽  
Mario Marazzi ◽  
Alexis R Santos-Lozada
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
High Quality Data ◽  
Economic Downturns ◽  
Employment Trends

In September 2017, Hurricane Maria made landfall on Puerto Rico and caused 102 billion worth of damages, demolishing the electric grid and severely affecting essential daily services that continued as of the second half of 2019. Amidst the chaos, analysts were expected to provide stakeholders with impact estimates immediately following the hurricane. Unfortunately, this strong need for fast information after the disaster coincided with limited options for high-quality data sources to help stakeholders address challenges such as resource allocation and bond-pricing. Given the stabilization of data sources since the hurricanes, this paper examines historical demographic and economic data to give a long-term view of population change in Puerto Rico. First, we juxtapose population, employment, hurricanes and significant economic events to make the argument that the clearest driver of population decline in Puerto Rico is simply the economic health of the island (i.e. employment). Second, we focus on Pre- and Post-Hurricane Irma/Maria migration estimates to highlight the spike in outmigration following the hurricanes, as well as the, return immigration in the first half of the first half of 2018. Finally, we study historical net outmigration and employment trends to illustrate the short-lived outmigration impacts of hurricanes while also highlighting the long-term outmigration impacts of economic downturns. In short, we argue that the primary reason people are leaving Puerto Rico is the struggling economy and not hurricane-related destruction. The hurricanes simply exacerbated the economic-related outmigration trends and we believe that any serious plans for Puerto Rico’s restoration must include special attention to stimulate the economy.

scholarly journals Shrinking Regions in a Shrinking Country: The Geography of Population Decline in Lithuania 2001–2011

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rūta Ubarevičienė ◽  
Maarten van Ham ◽  
Donatas Burneika
Keyword(s):  
Census Data ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
National Level ◽  
Spatial Dimension ◽  
Central European ◽  
Economic Area ◽  
Regional Factors ◽  
Shrinking Regions ◽  
Insight Into

Shrinking populations have been gaining increasing attention, especially in postsocialist Eastern and Central European countries. While most studies focus on specific cities and regions, much less is known about the spatial dimension of population decline on the national level and the local factors determining spatially uneven population change. This study uses Lithuanian census data from the years 2001 to 2011 to get insight into the geography of population change for the whole country. Lithuania has experienced one of the highest rates of population decline in the world in the last decades. The predictive models show that regional factors have a strong effect on the variation in population change throughout the country but also reveal that sociodemographic and economic area characteristics play a role in the process of decline. Our results give little hope to those who would like to reverse the ongoing trends of population change and emphasize the need for spatial planning to cope with the changes. This is an approach which currently does not exist in practice in Lithuania.

scholarly journals Site-selection bias can drive apparent population declines in long-term studies

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Auriel M.V. Fournier ◽  
Easton R. White ◽  
Stephen B. Heard
Keyword(s):  
Selection Bias ◽  
Site Selection ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Population Declines ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Real Population ◽  
Study Sites

Detecting population declines is a critical task for conservation biology. The spatiotemporal variability of populations, along with logistical difficulties in population estimation, makes this task difficult. Here we call attention to a possible bias in estimates of population decline: when study sites are chosen based on abundance of the focal species, for statistical reasons apparent declines are likely even without an underlying population trend. This “site-selection bias” has been mentioned in the literature but is not well known. We show using simulated and real population data that when site-selection biases are introduced, they have substantial impact on inferences about population trends. We use a left-censoring method to show patterns consistent with the operation of the site-selection bias in real population studies. The site-selection bias is, thus, an important consideration for conservation biologists, and we offer suggestions for minimizing or mitigating it in study design and analysis.

scholarly journals Recovery trends and predictions of Fraser fir (Abies fraseri) dynamics in the Southern Appalachian Mountains

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Douglas Kaylor ◽  
M. Joseph Hughes ◽  
Jennifer A. Franklin
Keyword(s):  
Census Data ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Abies Fraseri ◽  
Great Smoky Mountains ◽  
Fraser Fir ◽  
Balsam Woolly Adelgid ◽  
Hierarchical Bayesian Inference ◽  
Local Extirpation ◽  
Term Monitoring

The endemic Fraser fir (Abies fraseri (Pursh) Poir.) is found in only seven montane regions in the southern Appalachians above ca. 1500 m elevation. Due to widespread insect-caused mortality from the invasive balsam woolly adelgid (Adelges piceae Ratzeburg), as well as possible impacts from climate change and atmospheric pollution, the future of Fraser fir populations remains uncertain. Long-term monitoring programs have been in place since the 1980s, and here we present the first predictive population models for endemic Fraser fir populations using the inventory data from Great Smoky Mountains National Park, which contains 74% of extant Fraser fir forests. Using two kinds of population data (understory density counts and overstory census data), we model Fraser fir population dynamics on five different mountaintops as a stage-structured matrix model with transition parameters estimated using hierarchical Bayesian inference. We predict robust recovery over the next several decades for some Fraser fir populations, particularly where mature overstory fir has persisted throughout the last two decades, and continued decline for populations at the lowest elevations. Fraser fir densities are already low at these lower elevations, suggesting that this population is vulnerable to local extirpation.

Interpreting patterns of population change in koalas from long-term datasets in Coffs Harbour on the north coast of New South Wales

2016 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Lunney ◽  
Martin Predavec ◽  
Indrie Miller ◽  
Ian Shannon ◽  
Mark Fisher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Change ◽  
New South ◽  
Survey Methods ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
North Coast ◽  
Common View ◽  
The North ◽  
South Wales

We examined a long-term, repeat dataset for the koala population within Coffs Harbour Local Government Area. Analyses of these data have led to the conclusion that, following a perceived population decline in the 1980s, the koala population of Coffs Harbour has endured between 1990 and 2011 and showed no evidence of a precipitous decline during this period. Rather, the population change is best characterised as stable to slowly declining. This conclusion appears to contradict a common view of recent koala population declines on the north coast of New South Wales. There are four possible explanations for the population’s apparent stability: that conservation efforts and planning regulations have been effective; that surviving adults are persisting in existing home ranges in remnant habitat; that the broader Coffs Harbour population is operating as a ‘source and sink’ metapopulation; and/or that the standard survey methods employed are not sufficiently sensitive to detect small population changes. These findings do not mean there is no need for future conservation efforts aimed at koalas in Coffs Harbour; however, such efforts will need to better understand and account for a koala population that can be considered to be stable to slowly declining.

scholarly journals Site-selection bias can drive apparent population declines in long-term studies

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Auriel M.V. Fournier ◽  
Easton R. White ◽  
Stephen B. Heard
Keyword(s):  
Selection Bias ◽  
Site Selection ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Population Declines ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Real Population ◽  
Study Sites

Detecting population declines is a critical task for conservation biology. The spatiotemporal variability of populations, along with logistical difficulties in population estimation, makes this task difficult. Here we call attention to a possible bias in estimates of population decline: when study sites are chosen based on abundance of the focal species, for statistical reasons apparent declines are likely even without an underlying population trend. This “site-selection bias” has been mentioned in the literature but is not well known. We show using simulated and real population data that when site-selection biases are introduced, they have substantial impact on inferences about population trends. We use a left-censoring method to show patterns consistent with the operation of the site-selection bias in real population studies. The site-selection bias is, thus, an important consideration for conservation biologists, and we offer suggestions for minimizing or mitigating it in study design and analysis.

scholarly journals Obszary depopulacyjne w Polsce w latach 2002–2014

2018 ◽  
pp. 23-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Majdzińska
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Population Total ◽  
Population Age Structure ◽  
Population Loss ◽  
Real Population ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
And Migration

Depopulation is understood as a real population loss in an area represented by a negative population change. In the present-day Poland, the process is particularly distinct in the economically underperforming areas situated on the peripheries of large urban centres, but some of the most populous cities are also affected by it. The purpose of the presented research using Webb’s typology was to identify Polish poviats that were depopulating in all the years from 2002 to 2014 as a result of natural population decline and negative migration balance (two-factor depopulation). In the research, special attention was given to the rate of change in the number of population (total and by age group) and to a net natural and migration loss in the selected poviats. Selected characteristics of the 2014 population age structure in Poland were also evaluated. The basis for all findings presented in the paper is vital and migratory statistics for the years 2002 to 2014 and the data on poviats’ population age structure from 2002 and 2014 published by the Central Statistical Office.

scholarly journals Site-selection bias can drive apparent population declines in long-term studies

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Auriel M.V. Fournier ◽  
Easton R. White ◽  
Stephen B. Heard
Keyword(s):  
Selection Bias ◽  
Site Selection ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Population Declines ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Real Population ◽  
Study Sites

Detecting population declines is a critical task for conservation biology. The spatiotemporal variability of populations, along with logistical difficulties in population estimation, makes this task difficult. Here we call attention to a possible bias in estimates of population decline: when study sites are chosen based on abundance of the focal species, for statistical reasons apparent declines are likely even without an underlying population trend. This “site-selection bias” has been mentioned in the literature but is not well known. We show using simulated and real population data that when site-selection biases are introduced, they have substantial impact on inferences about population trends. We use a left-censoring method to show patterns consistent with the operation of the site-selection bias in real population studies. The site-selection bias is, thus, an important consideration for conservation biologists, and we offer suggestions for minimizing or mitigating it in study design and analysis.

'From These Youth Has Gone': Population Decline in the Lachlan Region of New South Wales, 1920-1947

2015 ◽  
pp. 50-68
Author(s):  
Robert Tierney ◽  
Kevin Parton
Keyword(s):  
Population Change ◽  
New South ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
The State ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Underlying Causes ◽  
Substantial Change ◽  
Second World

This article analyses major events during the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s affecting the Lachlan region, in New South Wales, in order to assess their relative impact on population change. The analysis juxtaposes the demographic changes taking place against the economic context of the time. The Lachlan region is compared with the four other wheatsheep regions of New South Wales and with the State generally. The paper demonstrates that population decline in the Lachlan region in the 1930s and 1940s was substantially greater than that of other wheat-sheep regions and of the State of New South Wales generally, and sets out to explain this anomaly. The Depression, the Second World War, drought over a sequence of years, and changing technology are shown, in combination, to be the underlying causes of substantial change that heralded the long-term drift of population from regional and rural NSW; especially so in the Lachlan region.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document