THEORIZATION IN IR AND THIRD WORLD STATES: THE PROMISE OF HISTORICAL SOCIOLOGY IN EXPLAINING THE NEXUS BETWEEN DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL SPHERES

Until alternative theories that sought a serious consideration of third world states in International Relations (IR) proliferated in the last quarter of the 20th century, knowledge production remained monopolized by dominant Western-centered theories. Historical Sociology in International Relations (HSIR) is one of the approaches that aimed at directing IR towards more inclusive inquiries that acknowledge temporal and spatial variance; especially against ahistorical and ‘asociological’ foundations of Neorealism. Despite this motivation, most of the studies and debates within HSIR are concentrated on illustrating the approach’s applicability in the study of Western states. Through a review of the available literature, this paper aims to demonstrate the promise of HSIR in explaining the relationship between domestic and foreign affairs of third world states. To achieve this objective, the paper mainly draws from the works of John Hobson and Fred Halliday and suggests the incorporation of third world states in the inquiries and debate within HSIR.

NO CONQUEST, NO DEFEAT: IRAN’S NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY

One of the lasting outcomes of the American invasion of Iraq in 2003 is the rising regional influence of Iran across the Middle East, which has been amplified by the dynamics of the region in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. Since then,there are many academic and journalistic attempts to explain and understand Iran’s policies towards the region. Tabatabai’s No Conquest, No Defeat: Iran’s National Security Strategy is an attempt to explain Iran’s foreign and security policies, particularly towards the Middle East, by putting them into a historical and cultural context. A frequent contributor to the leading US think tanks and recently appointed as a senior advisor position at the US Department of State, Tabatabai considered her study to ‘sit at the intersection’ of Iran’s military history and its politics.

POWER GAMES ON THE SILK ROUTE: A JOURNEY FROM HISTORICAL TO MODERN ERA

The real aim of the programme is an extension of Chinese power and influence. As per an analyst, it is a game where China is steadily placing counters across Asia and Europe. In the Western views, it is easy to interpret comments as a strategy of China, with the aim of extending Chinese influence in a series of carefully planned steps. Around 114 BC by the Han dynasty, the trade routes of Central Asia were expanded largely through the missions and explorations of Chinese imperial envoy Zhang Qian. The world’s greatest economic construction and development project ever is being undertaken by China. In the economic map of the world the New Silk Road project is a revolutionary change. The geopolitical conflicts over the project could lead to a new cold war between East and West for dominance in Eurasia as it is becoming clearer every day.

ANALYZING MULTIPLE BUBBLES IN THE USDKZT EXCHANGE RATE USING THE GSADF TEST

Since most of the financial crisis caused by the bursting bubble of financial assets, the investigation of bubble behaviors and the early detection for the prevention of adverse economic consequences is important. This paper investigates whether multiple price bubbles exist in USDKZT exchange rate on the basis of a recursive right tailed Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey Fuller Test (GSADF) developed by Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015), as well as to determine date stamps of the price bubbles. In this regard, we performed GSADF test by using weekly closing prices of the nominal exchange rate for the period between 23.08.2015 to 04.04.2021. In line with the empirical findings obtained, two explosive bubbles are detected in 2018 and 2020 when USDKZT exchange rate deviates from fundamental value. Our findings suggest that due to the possibility of bubble repetition, GSADF has been verified to be a better test for detecting bubbles.