Polygenic risk modeling for prediction of epithelial ovarian cancer risk

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) have the potential to improve risk stratification. Joint estimation of Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) effects in models could improve predictive performance over standard approaches of PRS construction. Here, we implemented computationally efficient, penalized, logistic regression models (lasso, elastic net, stepwise) to individual level genotype data and a Bayesian framework with continuous shrinkage, “select and shrink for summary statistics” (S4), to summary level data for epithelial non-mucinous ovarian cancer risk prediction. We developed the models in a dataset consisting of 23,564 non-mucinous EOC cases and 40,138 controls participating in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC) and validated the best models in three populations of different ancestries: prospective data from 198,101 women of European ancestries; 7,669 women of East Asian ancestries; 1,072 women of African ancestries, and in 18,915 BRCA1 and 12,337 BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers of European ancestries. In the external validation data, the model with the strongest association for non-mucinous EOC risk derived from the OCAC model development data was the S4 model (27,240 SNPs) with odds ratios (OR) of 1.38 (95% CI: 1.28–1.48, AUC: 0.588) per unit standard deviation, in women of European ancestries; 1.14 (95% CI: 1.08–1.19, AUC: 0.538) in women of East Asian ancestries; 1.38 (95% CI: 1.21–1.58, AUC: 0.593) in women of African ancestries; hazard ratios of 1.36 (95% CI: 1.29–1.43, AUC: 0.592) in BRCA1 pathogenic variant carriers and 1.49 (95% CI: 1.35–1.64, AUC: 0.624) in BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers. Incorporation of the S4 PRS in risk prediction models for ovarian cancer may have clinical utility in ovarian cancer prevention programs.

Novel biallelic variants expand the SLC5A6-related phenotypic spectrum

The sodium (Na+):multivitamin transporter (SMVT), encoded by SLC5A6, belongs to the sodium:solute symporter family and is required for the Na+-dependent uptake of biotin (vitamin B7), pantothenic acid (vitamin B5), the vitamin-like substance α-lipoic acid, and iodide. Compound heterozygous SLC5A6 variants have been reported in individuals with variable multisystemic disorder, including failure to thrive, developmental delay, seizures, cerebral palsy, brain atrophy, gastrointestinal problems, immunodeficiency, and/or osteopenia. We expand the phenotypic spectrum associated with biallelic SLC5A6 variants affecting function by reporting five individuals from three families with motor neuropathies. We identified the homozygous variant c.1285 A > G [p.(Ser429Gly)] in three affected siblings and a simplex patient and the maternally inherited c.280 C > T [p.(Arg94*)] variant and the paternally inherited c.485 A > G [p.(Tyr162Cys)] variant in the simplex patient of the third family. Both missense variants were predicted to affect function by in silico tools. 3D homology modeling of the human SMVT revealed 13 transmembrane helices (TMs) and Tyr162 and Ser429 to be located at the cytoplasmic facing region of TM4 and within TM11, respectively. The SLC5A6 missense variants p.(Tyr162Cys) and p.(Ser429Gly) did not affect plasma membrane localization of the ectopically expressed multivitamin transporter suggesting reduced but not abolished function, such as lower catalytic activity. Targeted therapeutic intervention yielded clinical improvement in four of the five patients. Early molecular diagnosis by exome sequencing is essential for timely replacement therapy in affected individuals.

Complementing the phenotypical spectrum of TUBA1A tubulinopathy and its role in early-onset epilepsies

TUBA1A tubulinopathy is a rare neurodevelopmental disorder associated with brain malformations as well as early-onset and intractable epilepsy. As pathomechanisms and genotype-phenotype correlations are not completely understood, we aimed to provide further insights into the phenotypic and genetic spectrum. We here present a multicenter case series of ten unrelated individuals from four European countries using systematic MRI re-evaluation, protein structure analysis, and prediction score modeling. In two cases, pregnancy was terminated due to brain malformations. Amongst the eight living individuals, the phenotypic range showed various severity. Global developmental delay and severe motor impairment with tetraparesis was present in 63% and 50% of the subjects, respectively. Epilepsy was observed in 75% of the cases, which showed infantile onset in 83% and a refractory course in 50%. One individual presented a novel TUBA1A-associated electroclinical phenotype with evolvement from early myoclonic encephalopathy to continuous spike-and-wave during sleep. Neuroradiological features comprised a heterogeneous spectrum of cortical and extracortical malformations including rare findings such as cobblestone lissencephaly and subcortical band heterotopia. Two individuals developed hydrocephalus with subsequent posterior infarction. We report four novel and five previously published TUBA1A missense variants whose resulting amino acid substitutions likely affect longitudinal, lateral, and motor protein interactions as well as GTP binding. Assessment of pathogenic and benign variant distributions in synopsis with prediction scores revealed sections of variant enrichment and intolerance to missense variation. We here extend the clinical, neuroradiological, and genetic spectrum of TUBA1A tubulinopathy and provide insights into residue-specific pathomechanisms and genotype-phenotype correlations.

A tool for translating polygenic scores onto the absolute scale using summary statistics

There is growing interest in the clinical application of polygenic scores as their predictive utility increases for a range of health-related phenotypes. However, providing polygenic score predictions on the absolute scale is an important step for their safe interpretation. We have developed a method to convert polygenic scores to the absolute scale for binary and normally distributed phenotypes. This method uses summary statistics, requiring only the area-under-the-ROC curve (AUC) or variance explained (R2) by the polygenic score, and the prevalence of binary phenotypes, or mean and standard deviation of normally distributed phenotypes. Polygenic scores are converted using normal distribution theory. We also evaluate methods for estimating polygenic score AUC/R2 from genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics alone. We validate the absolute risk conversion and AUC/R2 estimation using data for eight binary and three continuous phenotypes in the UK Biobank sample. When the AUC/R2 of the polygenic score is known, the observed and estimated absolute values were highly concordant. Estimates of AUC/R2 from the lassosum pseudovalidation method were most similar to the observed AUC/R2 values, though estimated values deviated substantially from the observed for autoimmune disorders. This study enables accurate interpretation of polygenic scores using only summary statistics, providing a useful tool for educational and clinical purposes. Furthermore, we have created interactive webtools implementing the conversion to the absolute (https://opain.github.io/GenoPred/PRS_to_Abs_tool.html). Several further barriers must be addressed before clinical implementation of polygenic scores, such as ensuring target individuals are well represented by the GWAS sample.